We're finding with our first round of House polling that things are generally tough for the challenger party. We're playing offense in mostly Republican districts, always against better-known and better-funded Republicans. It's a tripple-whammy. But it's one we faced and overcame in 2006 as well, in districts all around the country. So all our current House polling serves more as baseline polling as the House campaigns truly gear up. Most of these races will be polled one more time in late October to gauge movement and momentum.
In any case, while most of our first-round House polls have given us reason to be positive, none so far have given us such clearly awesome news as this one:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
McClintock (R) 41
Brown (D) 46
This is an open seat race, with McClintock a carpet-bagging but well-known conservative figure in California. Democrat Charlie Brown came close to upsetting the corrupt outgoing congressman John Doolittle in 2006, and Republicans pushed him out to improve their chances in the district. But the GOP primary was ugly, and it appears that the district wasn't just upset at Doolittle's shenanigans. They truly do appear to want change.
Brown peels away 13 percent of Republicans in this heavily Republican district (PVI R+10.9), which Bush won 61-37 in 2004. He's also killing with Independents, winning them 49-33. And while the nine percent of undecided Republicans will likely fall in line, the 10 percent of undecided Independents and five percent of undecided Republicans would probably provide the winning margin today.
Winning this district would be a political shocker. Keep this in mind -- only five Democrats (out of 236) hold seats more conservative than this one. And we're running a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-getting our troops home from Iraq (where his son is currently serving). He's not a Blue Dog in the making, but a honest-to-goodness Democrat running a Democratic campaign in a supposedly hostile district (McCain beats Obama 51-39 in this poll).
Charlie Brown is not just a Democrat, he's a better Democrat, and someone we are thrilled to have on our Orange to Blue ActBlue page. We've got the lead, Doolittle is on the run. Let's help Charlie have the resources to close this thing out. Contribute to his campaign today.
Full crosstabs under the fold.
CA-4 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – SEPTEMBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 23 and September 25, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 193 (48%)
Women 207 (52%)
Democrats 132 (33%)
Republicans 172 (43%)
Independents/Other 96 (24%)
18-29 71 (18%)
30-44 133 (33%)
45-59 120 (30%)
60+ 76 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom McClintock? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 32% 28% 7% 24%
MEN 10% 35% 26% 6% 23%
WOMEN 8% 29% 30% 8% 25%
DEMOCRATS 4% 23% 44% 12% 17%
REPUBLICANS 14% 40% 17% 4% 25%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 30% 26% 4% 32%
18-29 8% 30% 32% 8% 22%
30-44 10% 34% 26% 7% 23%
45-59 9% 32% 29% 7% 23%
60+ 9% 32% 25% 6% 28%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Brown? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 33% 16% 9% 31%
MEN 10% 31% 19% 11% 29%
WOMEN 12% 35% 13% 7% 33%
DEMOCRATS 19% 48% 6% 4% 23%
REPUBLICANS 5% 21% 26% 14% 34%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 32% 13% 8% 37%
18-29 13% 36% 14% 7% 30%
30-44 10% 32% 17% 10% 31%
45-59 12% 34% 15% 9% 30%
60+ 8% 30% 18% 10% 34%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Charlie Brown the Democrat or Tom McClintock the Republican?
BROWN MCCLINTOCK OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 41% 5% 8%
MEN 42% 46% 7% 5%
WOMEN 50% 36% 3% 11%
DEMOCRATS 86% 7% 2% 5%
REPUBLICANS 13% 72% 6% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 33% 8% 10%
18-29 49% 38% 3% 10%
30-44 45% 43% 7% 5%
45-59 47% 40% 6% 7%
60+ 43% 44% 4% 9%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 39% 5% 5%
MEN 54% 36% 6% 4%
WOMEN 48% 42% 4% 6%
DEMOCRATS 12% 81% 4% 3%
REPUBLICANS 83% 6% 5% 6%
OTHER 48% 39% 7% 6%
18-29 48% 43% 3% 6%
30-44 53% 37% 6% 4%
45-59 49% 39% 6% 6%
60+ 54% 37% 5% 4%