Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 49-43. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with R2K from today (yesterday) and the others from yesterday (day prior). Trackers will not reflect yesterday's strong Obama debate performance until tomorrow.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Research 2000: 49 (48) 43 (43) 3 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 49 (47) 42 (43) 3.2 RV
Rasmussen: 50 (49) 45 (46) 2 LV
Gallup: 48 (46) 45 (46) 2 RV
Obama had a +7 night on Fr to go with +7 We, +5 Th. Sarah Palin's fav/unfav are now -8.
The focus groups picked up soft, but important data on the debate, and the snap polls show an Obama win. Focus groups pick up the "likeability" piece, which polls do not. Obama won that going away. Here are the overnight polls:
CBS Insta Poll shows Barack Obama won 39% to John McCain's 25% with 36% saying the debate was a draw.
Insider Advantage reports those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%
CNN reports voter opinions that Obama "did better" 51%, McCain "did better" 38%
The CNN poll showed men were evenly split, but women gave Obama higher marks 59% to 41% for McCain.
Stan Greenberg/Democracy Corps:
Of our 45 initial undecided voters, a quarter moved to Obama and a quarter to McCain after the debate with the rest remaining undecided. Moreover, by a 38 to 27 percent margin these voters said that Obama won this debate.
A look at the underlying numbers shows that Obama made important gains that could endure through Election Day. These undecided voters had a strong positive reaction to Obama on a personal level. Before the debate, just 40 percent viewed Obama positively, but this skyrocketed to 69 percent after the debate – a remarkable 29-point gain that left him more personally popular than McCain despite this group’s conservative leanings. He also made large strides on being seen as independent, from 44 percent to 65 percent. And in head-to-head matchups against McCain, Obama made significant gains on who "shares your values" and is "on your side."
McCain did not fair as well. His personal standing also improved, but not to nearly the same degree as Obama’s. And while he made impressive gains on being a "maverick," he actually lost slight ground on "offering a different path than Bush," showing that these gains were more about style than substance.
CNN:
Men were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, with 46 percent giving the win to McCain and 43 percent to Obama. But women voters tended to give Obama higher marks, with 59 percent calling him the night's winner, while just 31 percent said McCain won
CBS:
THE DEBATE’S EFFECT ON OPINIONS OF THE CANDIDATES
(Among uncommitted voters who watched debate)
Obama McCain
Better 46% 32%
Worse 8 21
No change 46 47
Nearly half of those uncommitted voters who watched the debate said that their image of Obama changed for the better as a result. Just eight percent say their opinion of Obama got worse, and 46 percent reported no change in their opinions.
McCain saw less improvement in his image. Thirty-two percent have improved their image of McCain as a result of the debate, but 21 percent said their views of him are now worse than before.
Why did voters' image of Obama improve? Many volunteered that they were impressed by his poise and knowledge about the issues, that he was more knowledgeable about the issues than they thought previously. When it came to McCain, those same voters said he "didn’t control himself well under pressure," that he was "angry and bad-tempered," and that he "talked too much about the past."
Fox/Frank Luntz:
Remember a few things about the above:
- This was supposed to be McCain's strong debate. A tie goes to Obama (and it wasn't a tie).
- Obama leads in the polls. A tie goes to Obama (and it wasn't a tie).
- McCain's visuals and optics were awful. He came across as belligerent and dismissive.
- The undecided vote is not the general population. The demeanor of the candidates matters as much or more than substance.