Much has been written about Barack Obama's overwhelming support among voters under 35, but there is a shift underway among voters 65 and older.
What explains this shift in support? I think there are issues you could point to such as healthcare, the economy, social security, etc. to explain this shift, but I'm not convinced that any one of these issues in isolation is enough to persuade older voters. Instead, I point to some insight I attained from discussions with my grandma.
From the start of this campaign, my grandma has been enamored of Barack Obama. She thinks he is intelligent, well-spoken, and a good man. She often tells me that Obama reminds her of John F. Kennedy. Of course, it helps to have the backing of the Kennedy family to reinforce that perception, but I think there is something in Obama's persona that strikes a nostalgic chord with many older voters.
Take last night's debate for example, Barack Obama was passionate, compelling and came across as sincere in his concern for the welfare of the country. John McCain on the other hand appeared snide, petty and cranky. I wasn't alive to see the first Nixon/Kennedy debate (ironically held exactly 48 years ago to the day!), but from what I learned in school, the public embraced Kennedy, a relatively inexperienced politician, over the more well-known "experienced" Nixon largely because of the appearance that Kennedy was likable and charismatic, while Nixon appeared gruff and curmudgeonly.
The Great Debates marked television's grand entrance into presidential politics. They afforded the first real opportunity for voters to see their candidates in competition, and the visual contrast was dramatic. In August, Nixon had seriously injured his knee and spent two weeks in the hospital. By the time of the first debate he was still twenty pounds underweight, his pallor still poor. He arrived at the debate in an ill-fitting shirt, and refused make-up to improve his color and lighten his perpetual "5:00 o'clock shadow." Kennedy, by contrast, had spent early September campaigning in California. He was tan and confident and well-rested. "I had never seen him looking so fit," Nixon later wrote.
In substance, the candidates were much more evenly matched. Indeed, those who heard the first debate on the radio pronounced Nixon the winner. But the 70 million who watched television saw a candidate still sickly and obviously discomforted by Kennedy's smooth delivery and charisma. Those television viewers focused on what they saw, not what they heard. Studies of the audience indicated that, among television viewers, Kennedy was perceived the winner of the first debate by a very large margin.
I think Bob Boldt from MWC sums up last night's debate best when he writes:
Some are comparing it to the Nixon - Kennedy debates: those who didn't know the facts (probably 95% of the Amerikan people) and heard it on radio, will consider it a draw. Those who watched it on TV will have to conclude that Obama cleaned his clock. Considering that this is the debate McCain was figured to do the best on, it looks like it will be all downhill from here!
My grandma does not have a PhD in Political Science, but I think she's on the money...she knows a genuine leader when she sees one.