In case you missed it with all the debate excitement, there were some interesting developments in the Presidential race in Indiana this week.
The McCain campaign has basically ignored Indiana under the assumption that a state which went 60% for George W. Bush in 2004 and which hasn't gone Democratic in a POTUS race since 1964 could not possibly be in play.
Au contraire. As the latest polling shows, the race has tightened considerably, with the RCP average now at McCain +2.3%, well within the MOE.
The result is that the GOP is running scared, and the RNC will be spending $740,000 on TV ads over an eight-day period beginning next Tuesday.
More below the fold.
Hoosiers love basketball, and Obama continues running a full court press against McCain. As the Indy Star reported,
Obama narrowly lost the May primary here to Hillary Rodham Clinton. And in the process, he had "the opportunity to at least define himself with Hoosier voters and that has lingered," said Kip Tew, a former state Democratic chairman who is a volunteer adviser to the Obama campaign. "They competed with a ground game that no one’s ever seen in the state."
Since then, that ground game has only gotten stronger. As Thomas reports on BlueIndiana.net
We get word that another five Campaign for Change offices are opening across the state. The new field operations in Batesville, Chesterton, Indianapolis (another one!), Shererville, and Crawfordsville bring the total up to 37.
In addition to a great and growing ground game, Obama has been scoring through the air as well as bringing in the big guns.
[The Obama campaign] has aired at least $1.5 million in TV ads since June.
Obama has made five stops in the state since mid-July, and running mate Joe Biden [returned] to the state [last Wednesday].
By contrast, the McCain ground game is nonexistent and Indiana Republicans are restless:
It has no field offices or paid staffers working full-time in the state, and McCain hasn’t visited the state since July 1.
(snip)
"I know they feel like it’s a state they’re going to win," [a McCain supporter] said. "I really wish Palin would come in, I wish McCain would come in. ... They need to at least let us know that they know we’re out here."
Here's a picture of the McCain operation:
While some may question whether Obama can win Indiana, consider these facts:
[T]hree incumbent Republican congressmen lost re-election bids two years ago, and ... the state’s struggling economy makes voters more receptive to Obama. The state’s unemployment rate hit 6.4 percent in August, up nearly 2 percentage points from a year earlier.
An increase of more than 425,000 new voter registrations since the 2006 election, and Obama’s name recognition in northwestern Indiana, a heavily Democratic area where more than 10 percent of the state’s voters see Chicago TV stations, also could help.
And listen to this Hoosier:
Jessie Bochert, 45, who runs a business preparing houses for sale from her home in Granger, shows why Obama thinks he may have an opening in the state. Bochert, who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, initially supported McCain but switched to Obama and began volunteering for his campaign.
"I feel guilty for all that has happened" under Bush, she said. "There are so many people I talk to, they can’t afford their prescriptions, they don’t know what to pay, they can’t afford anything. It’s really the economy, and that’s what it’s coming down to."
As Tew noted two days before the ad buy was announced,
"If [McCain and the GOP] start to compete in Indiana then it’s an admission that there’s another state in play that they didn’t think was ever going to be in play," Tew said. "If they don’t compete in Indiana, then they’re in danger of losing it. So they’re in a box."
That box forced the Republicans' hand and now there's three-quarters of a million dollars less to spend in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, NC, etc.
I believe Obama has a real chance to win Indiana's 11 electoral votes. I have canvassed for him, and I can tell you people are hurting and most of them blame the Republicans. Needless to say, young voters and African American voters are typically energized.
I think it's going to come down to GOTV; that's why I have already cleared Nov. 4 as a personal absence day with my employer. I plan to transport folks to the polls all day.
Find out what you can do. Go to barackobama.com.
Donate. Volunteer. Vote.
Yes we can -- even in Indiana!
Update: As dhonig pointed out in an excellent diary today, McCain's statement during the debate last night that he would not support ethanol subsidies will also help in Indiana. I highly recommend you read this excellent diary.
Update 2: For a nice look at the ground game in Indiana check out Maximilien Robespierre's diary.