With all the polls coming out showing Obama up by +5, +6, +7, I want to draw attention to do some assessment of the campaign and what could happen from here on out.
There are still over 4 weeks to go until election day. Obama has been way up on McCain before, and McCain has pulled some erratic moves to shake up the numbers and the pundits. There are several scenarios that could crop up between now and election day, and there is NO space for Obama supporters or his campaign to let up on their attacks on McCain.
We saw, post convention, that keeping the campaign purely positive was not a way to win an election (see Kerry vs. Bush, 2004). Obama has forcefully counter-punched in the days since the GOP convention that saw McCain's numbers peak and Obama's sink. I, like many, were shocked that what seemed to be such an awful convention actually sway voters. But swayed they were -- until we started setting the record straight. The Palin shine wore off. The press and the voters had a chance to digest who and what this anomaly called Palin really was, and the numbers started to move.
McCain is being boxed into the corner. Like any animal, when cornered, it will attack, and sometimes in an unexpectedly ferocious manner. We should expect, in the coming weeks, especially if McCain continues to lag in the polls, that him and the GOP will become more outrageous in their claims, their lies, and their stunts. They will strike out, perhaps in ways we've never seen, expected, or thought was possible in a respectable democratic western country. You thought Swift Boaters were low? Wait 'til the GOP gets desperate. The GOP, and their backers will try any last minute distractions to cling to power.
Palin could be replaced. Palin's daughtercould get married, a flurry of new fear mongering could erupt, a new crisis could emerge (either financial or military-related), a gaffe could take the news cycle for a week. Does this sound alarmist? It's meant to sound humbling. The elections have not happened yet. There is a LOT of work to do and continue to be done. Diaries about the polls are nice and uplifting for us, but we must fight like we're behind.
I expect to see surprises in the coming weeks. Obama's team seems to have learned how to go on the attack. I remember pre-primary Obama. He did not seem very forceful (to me) and appeared to parse words too much. Nowadays, he seems to have gotten the message that bringing a sharp blade to the knife fight will score much more damage.
So where are we at? Obama has not been elected yet. Until he is, we are behind. Obama is behind until he is elected. Like the army of 300, the GOP diehards will fight until the bitter, bitter end. They will not give up easily. They will reach new depths in their struggle to scare and deceive the voters. They will try to suppress votes. They will try to misdirect voters on where to vote. But we much remain vigilant. We much remain alert, aggressive, and responsive until November 5. Like the technological singularity, November 5 is an event horizon that no one can truly see beyond until we get there. Keep up the good fight.