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John McDougall, MD, a bestselling author who runs a medical clinic in Northern California, used publicly released medical records to make a comparison between Obama and McCain's health.

Looking at the candidates' specific health conditions, McDougall presents a variety of mortality statistical data on age and various diseases to calculate the chances of each candidate dying in office:

Obama = 2% probability of dying in office

McCain = 50% probability of dying in office (in 8 years, 38% in 4)

Read the full fascinating analysis, linked after the fold.

Are people satisfied with what is basically a coin toss to determine whether Sarah Palin will assume the Oval Office during McCain's term?

This is not a partisan question, but strictly a medical one, one that the media has not examined.

The article is heavily footnoted to various medical studies, but let's cut to the chase; here is Dr. McDougall's conclusion:

While it is impossible to predict with certainty any person's future health, time of death, or degree of disability, the evidence at hand clearly says John McCain is in relatively poor health and Barack Obama is in excellent health. All politics aside, no one could conclude otherwise. To McCain’s credit he appears to be holding up well during this grueling campaign, but his current appearances do not negate the medical facts.

Additionally, although it is impossible to accurately merge all the figures that predict mortality—38% (actuarial figures), 27% (cardiac risk), and 44% (melanoma mortality)—it would not be unreasonable to guess that McCain’s chances of dying within the two terms of Presidential office far exceed a coin toss.  Add to this the risk of his becoming disabled to the point of non-performance, then who among well-informed voters would bet their stock portfolio or their subprime-mortgaged home that, if elected, McCain will still be our President come 2017? Would you, or the company you work for, hire an employee with McCain’s medical problems?  How about someone with Obama’s health history?  Of course, there are many other important issues that will determine the vote you will cast come November 4, 2008, but the health of our candidates is of paramount importance and should be weighed appropriately.


The response to this could be as commented that FDR, one of our greatest presidents, suffered from terrible health, while GW Bush, probably the worst, is in excellent health, thus health isn't that relavant.

However, it is a medical probability that the person McCain selected as his VP will assume the presidency during his term. And this is a topic that merits serious consideration, given the questions surrounding her preparedness for office.

Originally posted to Yo yo yo on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:14 PM PDT.

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