Today's Daily Tracking Polls show a consensus result of Obama +7, combining the Research 2000/DKos Obama+10 with Obama+6 results from Gallup, Rasmussen, and Diageo/Hotline. On a straight-number basis, this ties his best result since the start of August, a composite of Gallup+Rasmussen O+7 at the peak of the DNC bounce.
Graphs and notes follow:
This is the combination of the four DTPs. For results before the R2k/DK and D/H polls were live, the Rasmussen and Gallup polls have been normalized by adjusting them based on their individual results against the 4-poll consensus since all were online.
Here is a raw graph showing the 4 polls over the same timeline -- starting about 1 week prior to the DNC beginning.
And here is the same graph, with each of the 4 pollsters normalized to the 4-poll consensus:
Analysis
The onset of the economic crisis two weeks ago was bad for McCain, ending his post-RNC bump early and taking Obama back to about where he was before making his VP announcement, which had a small negative effect. Whether that effect would have been temporary or not is unknowable due to the fast-on pacing of the conventions. By the end of that week, however, the race had once again stabilized.
However, McCain's bizarre week last week with his "suspension" and then the debate seems to have pushed the dial more toward Obama again -- a bounce similar in size to the DNC.