Why Nevada is Hard to Poll, and Obama's Hopes there
Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 05:32:50 PM PDT
I was looking for information on upcoming primaries this morning and found a great analysis of the impact that that the Culinary Workers Local 226 endorsement of Obama could have. It's by J. Patrick Coolican a reporter for the Las Vegas Sun newspaper.
In brief, Coolican says
... the Culinary endorsement could be decisive for Obama.
Here’s why:
Although the union is coy about how many of its members are registered to vote, the endorsement is expected to give Obama at least 10,000 supporters in the caucus, in a contest whose turnout estimates have ranged from 28,000 to 100,000.
The article continues by explaining this idiosyncrasy of the process in Nevada:
In a caucus, supporters of a candidate literally stand together on one side of the room, demonstrating to everyone who is supporting whom. Many Strip shift workers, Culinary workers, will be voting at so-called “at-large” caucus sites on the Strip. This means Culinary members, for whom unity is a creed, will be able to enforce discipline. Clinton can no longer expect to win many delegates at those at-large sites.
A big part of this threat to Sen. Clinton is due to the leadership of the Culinary Union.
Culinary leadership, including Secretary-Treasurer D. Taylor and political director Pilar Weiss, are two of the most politically savvy and feared players in Nevada Democratic politics. State legislators and others are wary of crossing them.
Taylor is an influential figure in this influential (in Nevada) union:
Taylor is revered by his membership for negotiating impressive wage and benefit gains in 2002 and again last year. His mild manner disappears when he takes the stage in front of the members, when he becomes a passionate, red-faced advocate for labor and progressive values.
And like in Iowa, the fact that this is a caucus makes it very hard to poll:
The polling has never been considered reliable because Nevada has never conducted an early presidential caucus, and so it’s largely unknown who will show up. And, it has always been assumed that the numbers would shift considerably with a victory by Obama in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Coolican closes with this assessment of why Nevada, and the union endorsement, is so important for Obama:
With the Culinary endorsement, the Obama team surely sees victory in its grasp here. It would then have momentum going into South Carolina on Jan. 26, where half the voters are black and in the past week have moved quickly into the Obama column. If Obama racked up two victories, he would have momentum going into Feb. 5, when 22 states, including California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York, will hold primaries. He’d also have money and political support.
The article contains a lot more good information, including an assessment of John Edward's role. I like finding stories like this in the local media. They seem to know what's going on better than the national media.
(Let me know if this has already been diaried.)
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