Painfully OT - NFL playoff predictions (Conference Finals)
Mon Jan 14, 2008 at 07:58:06 PM PDT
Yup, despite the fact that the United States may be facing a recession in 2008 and the globe is warming up AND oil is getting more expensive AND Sarah Connor is facing that darned swarm of mean ol' terminators yet again, I'm going to waste precious Dkos time with my weekly NFL picks. Don't worry, soon the season will be over and your time can be wasted in other ways (like NHL playoffs in April).
Last week I was 4 out of 4 in my picks. I just had that feeling that San Diego and New York could pull off road upsets and they vindicated me in a couple fantastic games. In fact, if you think you like football and didn't like this weekend's game, you actually like curling instead.
After a weekend of uniformly great games, I'm rather impatient for the conference finals to take place to finally see who will make it to the Super Bowl on February 3rd. With the Patriots now 17-0 and still looking damned close to perfect, they're obviously the favorite for just about everyone. But this past weekend got pretty interesting. I should note that I personally made all four picks correctly for the division round, including the upsets by New York and San Diego.
Of note, while Tom Brady will correctly get plenty of attention for his unreal performance against Jacksonville, David Garrard shrugged off his lousy performance in Pittsburgh and played very well. In fact, if there were doubts about his ability to be a top tier quarterback, his play on Saturday night should quiet those. In fact, if Dennis Northcutt hadn't dropped an easy pass for a touchdown to make the game 21-21, Jacksonville might have come even closer to winning, despite Brady's superman game.
The snow game in Green Bay was just too much fun to watch.
San Diego put the hurt on Indianapolis with their scrub team. Who would have ever imagined Billy Volek leading the Chargers to their go-ahead score in one of the finest, most crucial drives of the season by any team? This, to me, proves my point about resting players on during the final week of the regular season, as the Colts did. They came out and didn't play very well (Peyton Manning excepted). Sports Illustrated columnist Peter King agrees:
Still think it's a good idea to rest your players for the playoffs in Weeks 16 and 17? The Bucs and Colts went to a spa the last half of December and lost to underdogs at home in their first playoff games. That's the second time in three years it's happened to Indy. The Packers barely rested their guys and looked like the '58 Colts in whipping the Seahawks. New England, Green Bay and New York rested no one; they're 4-0 combined. The Giants, in fact, were badly slumping entering Week 17 with nothing to play for. Since then, they nearly knocked off the best team in the league and have won two road playoff games.
I was so disgusted with the Colts essentially throwing the last game of the season to the Tennessee Titans, who essentially backed into the playoffs based on that win (and got quickly bounced back out courtesy of the Chargers). Play to win or don't play at all. The Colts have had early exits on more than one occasion where they ended the season by playing scrubs, rather than keeping their starters on track. Good on the Giants for treating fans to a season classic in Week 17 against the Patriots (when neither team necessarily benefitted from a win, but obviously both have reaped benefits for keeping sharp).
So off you go, Colts. Your starters can rest for months now. May the rest of the NFL learn a lesson from this.
And now, we look into my Crystal Ball:
San Diego at New England: New England.
I want to be able to pick San Diego in another upset, but they may have spent themselves in the victory against the Colts. Stars like LaDanian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates all are nursing injuries, although I suspect it'll take kidnappings to keep them from playing on Sunday. Their effectiveness may be limited, though. Fortunately, in LT's case, his two backups, Michael Turner and little Mr. Speedy Sproles, can ably fill in for him in case LT isn't 100%. But Philip Rivers must play or this team is toast. The real key, however, is the defensive play. They aren't going to survive another highly effecient game from the opposing quarterback. If they thought Manning and his receivers were tough, they ain't seen nothin' yet. They somehow have to disrupt Brady's game while simultaneously making sure Laurence Maroney doesn't run wild. I just don't see it happening. However, I think San Diego, on willpower and Philip River's mouthiness alone, will keep the game close and decided in the fourth quarter. And while San Diego is a major underdog against an offensive juggernaut, don't forget how the Patriots were a complete underdog against the St. Louis Rams in Superbowl XXXVI. And won. So never discount the underdog.
New York at Green Bay: Green Bay.
All right, New York, that was a mighty fine run to get to the conference finals, but it ends now. Brett Favre and His Babes are on fire now. They're so good that running back Ryan Grant decided to be sporting against Seattle and spot them 14 points before tearing up the field in a 200 yard performance. And if Ryan Grant isn't gaining big yards, Favre is throwing to Greg Jennings for a score. Like their AFC counterparts, Green Bay's offense has so many weapons it should be a crime. Not bad for a team of youngsters and Old Man Time. I think while people assume Favre is playing as if this may be the end (or will it?), it's also safe to assume the young men on the team are playing harder than ever to make sure Favre goes out on top of the world this season (if he indeed retires). New York's secondary is hurting right now, which just makes their job that much harder. Good on New York for what they've accomplished the last three weeks, but they are simply overmatched and most likely will lose by more than ten points. At the very least, Eli can say to big brother Peyton, "So, how many post season games did you win this year?" at the next family get-together.
So there you have it: a New England/Green Bay superbowl matchup. That has the potential of being one for the ages.
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