With issues of race in the political campaign intersecting with the 79th birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr. this week, I couldn't help but flashback to just two years ago today, Jan. 17, 2006, when Sen. Hillary Clinton made a somewhat controversial appearance at a New York event honoring Dr. King where she delivered her so-called "plantation" speech.
Now... disclosure... I am an Obama supporter.
But given I still think she will probably wind up with the nomination as I expect her to win the lion's share of Feb. 5 states I think it's worthwhile to have a discussion of her honest fall electoral chances given the strong reaction to Hillary by many in the African-American community after this latest conflagration (with some booing her at the MLK event in New York a few days ago and African-Americans voting for "uncommitted" rather than her in Michigan in huge numbers) and I got to thinking about what would happen if Hillary gave a similar speech now in front of a similar audience -- truce or no truce. I just can't see it going well at all. Because of that, I have to wonder what the heck is going to happen with Hillary and the bulk of the black vote in the general election, especially if Obama is not her vice presidential pick.
In case you need a refresher, here is a clip of Hillary's appearance at the event two years ago.
The statement that got parsed to death from that event was this:
When you look at the way the House of Representatives has been run, it has been run like a plantation and you know what I'm talking about...
At the time Hillary took heat from Republicans, although that's not an unusual phenomenon, so I don't think most Democrats paid much attention to what she said then. I know I didn't.
However looking back on the comments I do feel they were somewhat tone deaf and it was a bit of an unnecessary and unfortunate pander.
I agree with a lot of what the Tribune said at the time:
As everyone probably knows by now, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) on Monday told a black audience at a King holiday event in New York: "Because when you look at the way the House of Representatives has been run, it has been run like a plantation. And you know what I'm talking about."
Newt Gingrich said something similar in 1994 as he led the insurgency against the Democrats then running the House. "They think it is their job to run the plantation. It shocked them that I'm willing to lead the slave rebellion," he said.
Politicians who reach for the plantation simile seem not to understand just how absurd it is for them to compare the status of being in the minority party on Capitol Hill to the existence of blacks on plantations in the Americas.
It risks further trivializing one of the greatest atrocities ever visited by humans on other humans, as if that hadn't been done enough by the movie "Gone with the Wind," and the view widely held among too many Americans that slaves were mostly well-treated by genial masters who made sure they were clothed and fed.
The reality, despite many Americans still being in denial, is that for millions of Africans and their American-born children, plantations were equal to Nazi concentration camps.
Given this episode as well as the recent controversies over whether the Clinton campaign is being racially sensitive enough I do worry about how the Clintons will succeed in convincing Obama supporters, especially those of color, to vote for her in the general election given how much we love our guy and how disappointed we will be if he falls short and I just wonder if they truly realize that just trotting out Bill on black talk radio and giving speeches as her surrogate-in-chief isn't going to be enough to convince the people who have their feelings hurt over what's happened in all this that they should expend energy in supporting Hillary Clinton.
Now perhaps I am overestimating how much impact recent events will have on the general election in the long run and the Clinton campaign will have learned their lesson and found a way to stop putting their feet in their mouths on this stuff to ensure Obama supporters don't stay home or cast protest votes. I know I have said in times of frustration that I'm not going to vote for her, but since NOT VOTING is anathema to me I know in the privacy of the ballot booth I will probably think of the Supreme Court and she will get my vote regardless of what happens.
But what will happen to turnout overall if she's the nominee? She will need HIGH Democratic turnout, and high African-American turnout, especially in states like Ohio if her 50%+1 strategy is going to work given how motivated the Republicans will be to defeat her. And what if someone like Huckabee who has a history of appealing to African-American voters and his fake Populist message winds up winning the Republican nomination? I shudder at the thought.
I just want to make it clear that in raising this issue I do not think the Clintons are racist themselves, but I think some aspects of their campaign and their understanding of the affection that exists for Obama has shown them to be a bit out of touch with a large segment of the people and at times they have displayed less racial sensitivity than has been called for. Obviously this cuts both ways and if Obama defeats Hillary he will have a lot of work to do to win over sad Clinton supporters. I think Obama realizes this and that's why he dialed everything back when he did. My worry with the Clinton campaign and many of her supporters though is they don't fully understand how low the reservoir of goodwill that exists for the Clintons is among some Democrats and that she has such a lower margin for error in terms of her campaign's conduct if she wants ALL Democrats voting for her Nov. 4 and all Democrats defending her and Bill from all the incoming attacks many of us Democrats never healed from in defending the Clintons during the 90s.
Now perhaps one ultimately unsatisfying but perhaps necessary compromise would be for a victorious Hillary as nominee to select Obama as her veep. I would be frustrated as I'd want Obama free to have his own legacy separate from the Clintons and have the chance to run for president again and not be in the situation Gore was in during the 2000 campaign. Also, I have no doubt that Hillary would much rather select someone else for her veep who isn't going to anyway overshadow her and she'd probably rather choose a white male veep so as not to get too crazy so to speak with already having the ticket with the first woman presidential candidate.
But perhaps that would be the best possible compromise should Obama lose out on the nomination, especially given his strong fundraising prowess and dedicated base of grassroots support.
All I know is if the Clinton campaign doesn't put some serious work into repairing their relations with the party as a whole after this primary season is over so that the entire base is ready and motivated to do battle for her against the well-financed, highly motivated Republicans who will be opposing her, it will be very tough to see how Democrats can win in the fall.
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