And the Republican Nominee is . . .
Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 08:12:29 PM PDT
Anyone's guess.
Fear not. Some people are hysterically declaring that John McCain is now the Republican party's "inevitable" nominee based upon his victory, by a margin of a whopping 3%, in tonight's South Carolina primary. Irrespective of the panic, the Republican party remains fractured as ever and there are few reliable signs that Republican voters will coalesce around a single candidate before the party's convention.
More, under the fold.
First, the obvious. The Republican candidates are splitting the victories.
Mitt Romney captured Michigan, Nevada, and Wyoming, finished a strong second in New Hampshire, and a not so strong second in Iowa. He leads the field in total delegates.
Mike Huckabee took Iowa and came in a very close second in South Carolina.
John McCain won New Hampshire and South Carolina, placed second in Michigan, and finished further down in other states.
Rudy Giuliani is pinning his hopes for the presidency on a victory in Florida, an unlikely event which would further fracture the already divided Republicans.
Now, onto Super Duper Tuesday. There is nothing to indicate that McCain will sweep the February 5 states, or even come close.
Of the states voting that day, Utah and Massachusetts are very likely to fall into Mitt Romney's column. Romney will also have the money to run negative ads attacking the entire Republican field in a large number of states.
Huckabee will almost certainly be victorious in Arkansas, and has a strong chance to win in Georgia, Alabama, and West Virginia. The most religious voters in the South Carolina primary--the so-called values voters--broke for Huckabee over McCain. Huckabee is likely to remain strong, and viable, in the South.
If Grandpa Fred does not drop out of the race, he has a shot at taking Tennessee. If he does drop out, it's up for grabs.
Should Giuliani's Florida-based plan work out, he has a strong chance at winning New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and possibly California.
The only thing I will say for certain about McCain is that, barring the most bizarre change of events imaginable, he will win in Arizona. This is not to say that I expect him to lose everywhere else, but it's the only state voting on February 5 where he has a specific, identifiable advantage over his opponents.
I don't have a feeling one way or the other regarding the remaining February 5 states, specifically, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Colorado. But I do know that it will be damn near impossible for McCain to compete in each of the February 5 states, against a divided field of candidates, each with unique geographic ties and ideological positions providing them with discrete advantages.
So what do you all think? Is McCain inevitable or are the games just starting?
EDIT: Another thought. Check out CNN's website. To the casual political observer (i.e., not people like us!), Romney may get just as much momentum out of his Nevada victory as McCain does from his win in South Carolina. I realize that NV was not as contested as SC, but I'd be willing to bet that the typical voter is unaware. Also, Romney won NV by a much more substantial margin. CNN's website Today's news coverage makes Romney's victory seem almost as significant as McCain's.
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