Hardnosed Predictions (NFL - OT)

We all love to make predictions and there's tons going on this week alone to predict, particularly in Iowa.  There's tons of diaries regarding the subject.  But I guarantee more than a few Dkos folks are anxiously awaiting this weekend, when the NFL playoffs finally get underway.

We’re finally at the point where the games are for real. Now, as a public service to NFL players, fans and owners, I am going to predict the winners throughout the playoffs so that the losers can save themselves the trouble of bothering to show up. They can ground their chartered flights and improve their carbon footprint on the atmosphere and fans of the losers can find something better to do with their weekends, including reading to the elderly, volunteering at an animal shelter or simply stop domestically violencing their spouses.

Without further ado, the Wild Card Weekend Predictions:

Washington vs. Seattle: Washington.
Seattle got lazy during their loss to the lowly Atlanta Falcons last weekend and began resting starters well before the game was decided. "Oooh, we’re scared of injuries!" they claimed. They should be more scared of their lack of a good running game and the fact Washington has been gangbusters the last few weeks simply because they have to play hard and play to win simply to even have a chance of making the playoffs in the first place. I place an official curse on teams that rested their starters the last week of the season. Besides, everyone should fear Todd Collins, who has been preserving his body for a decade for a deep playoff run.

Jacksonville vs. Pittsburgh: Jacksonville
I want to curse both of these teams since they rested tons of starters, but Pittsburgh was far more pathetic in week seventeen in their Play-not-to-Win approach. Losing to an awful Baltimore team who was starting a forgotten-about rookie at quarterback is simply unacceptable. Jacksonville also rested tons of players, but for the most part gave Houston a run for their money, until Houston decided a couple of kickoff returns for TDs would be a fun way to end the season. At least backup Jags QB Quinn Gray looked like a real NFL player. Getting past the whole "curse" thing, I honestly think Jacksonville has a great running game, very smart quarterback play that limits stupid mistakes, and a tough defense. They’re quietly one of the better teams in the NFL and should dispatch the Steelers once again on Pittsburgh’s home turf.

New York vs. Tampa Bay: New York
New York, with little to play for except pride and, y’know, integrity against the New England Patriots (and their quest to go 16-0 in the regular season), came out and played their hearts out, coming up just a bit short. No matter, they won respect from all the pundits and fans around the league. Eli Manning needed a solid game and provided one, which can only help them in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay started resting players seemingly a month ago. Does anyone remember the last time Jeff Garcia played meaningful football? Or played at all? Tampa got lucky playing in a weak division this year and will be bounced out in no time at all.

Tennessee vs. San Diego: San Diego
One must look at it this way: Tennessee, who needed a win on Sunday to qualify for the playoffs, had a really hard time beating the Indianapolis’ scrub. Were they really the sixth best team in the AFC? Or did Indianapolis decide to lose the game because they’d rather potentially face Tennessee in the playoffs (because they know they can slaughter the Titans) or risk playing the Cleveland Browns, who I feel were a far better team (even if they blew it against Cincinnati). San Diego at least played their starters till they had the game in hand, which is the smart time to pull out some key players.

So that's it for the Wild Card round.  Also crossposted at my "Whatever - the Blog" (link in signature).  We'll see if I know what the heck I'm talking about or just have it out for the "cursed" teams after this weekend concludes.  Meanwhile, those of you in Iowa, caucus wisely.

And for those who need something worthwhile in an off-topic diary, here's a pootie:

•  Disclaimer: I have no favorite NFL team

  Well, actually, my favorite team is whoever plays the Broncos and they're out of the playoffs, so there's my full disclosure.

  I say Jacksonville may be the best of the bunch for the initial round.  I even believe they could knock off New England given a good game.

  by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:39:23 AM PDT

  •  I love your insightful analysis

    on the Todd Collins situation. Fear him not at your own peril! Cracked me up.

    by SeekCa on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:02:13 PM PDT

    •  Gotta love his story

      Truly out of obscurity to lead a team to the playoffs.  Might be better than Derek Anderson's "afterthought to 'hey Brady Quinn, earn your big rookie salary on the bench, will ya'" story.

      by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:04:53 PM PDT

  •  I disagree about Jacksonville in general.

    First of all, Jacksonville is a bad matchup for New England. The teams that have been able to spread it out and throw the ball (Indy, New Orleans) against the Jags have had success this year. And nobody throws the ball better than New England.

    The best wild card team is San Diego. However, they aren't coached very well and they've gotten inconsistent quarterback play this year. It's not impossible, as anything can happen in a one game situation, but I think we're on course for Indy at New England on January 20th.

    Also, the only way Tennessee can play Indy is if they win at San Diego, then win at New England. If they win in SD, they automatically play NE as the Pats get the worst remaining seed.

    by Danno11 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:47:29 PM PDT

•  Go Seahawks!

  At 22-1 odds, I couldn't help but bet on them in Reno this weekend.

  I predict New England will lose to the Jaguars who in turn will lose to the Chargers after they dispatch Indianapolis.

  by darthstar on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:40:17 AM PDT

  •  16-1

    How embarrassing would it be to lose the first game in the playoffs after a "perfect" season?  For the most part, I think New England is just flat out the best team in the league, but a team that can run the ball to keep Brady, Welker and Moss off the field will have a chance, plus Jax's defense is good enough to knock the Pats around a bit.

    I totally want Indy to lose in the first round after their deliberate loss the other night.  I HATE when a team doesn't play to win.  

    by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:47:31 AM PDT

    •  Cosign on the Indy game

      That bugged me - they didn't even use a timeout at the end to make Tenn snap the ball again.

      by daria g on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:56:44 PM PDT

•  Solid analysis

  I'll nitpick one bit & let my team homer-ism show... I wouldn't quite claim the Steelers were "resting starters" as much as trying to mend them. My boys have been falling apart to injury as if they're made of graham crackers. (Alternate take: ...have been falling apart to injury like the field they play on.)

  The one exception who I was surprised took the day off - Hines Ward - I don't mind seeing held given the threats previously posed towards him by a few Baltimore Raven thugs.

  I do not believe the Jaguars can take the Steelers twice at home in less than a month. No way, no how. While I do believe the Jaguars are the strongest team heading into the playoffs, I think they will trigger a Steelers response that will (hopefully) carry into New England next week.

  Or so I say.

  by zeitshabba on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:46:08 AM PDT

•  Go Steelers

  sorry, i'm a die hard fan and I would root for them even if they had a 14 game losing streak!  I'm ain't no Dallas Cowboy fan who only shows up during a superbowl party to get drunk and annoy everyone around me.

  That aside, I don't mind that Pittsburgh rested their starters and people who have been playing injured for the past several weeks.  

  I do give total respect to the New York Giants.  Since New England was going for a record, New York owed it to their fans and to New England to play a real game.  New England truly deserved the perfect record and earned it. And I bet the NY giants got a great boast of confidence heading into the playoffs.    

  by arogue7 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:47:17 AM PDT

  •  A surprisingly great game

    That was one of the top five games of the season, which is odd since neither would benefit from a win (or be hurt by a loss).  Instead, they gave a big TV audience a classic, exciting game.  I really don't care for the Giants as a general rule, but I was so happy they gave it their all.  

    Don't you worry about the Cowboys, they're slumping fast and will not go far in the playoffs...if anywhere.  Blame Jessica Simpson.

    by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:53:01 AM PDT

  •  Steelers baby here, too

    And I'm so glad to have this diary over all the IOWA primary love-hate fest going on.  I just wish it were over now and we had a nominee.  UGH!  I wish I could love just one candidate as much as I love Mike Tomlin right now.  But dude, did you really have to name your kid Harlyn Quinn?  It's a romance series name (Harlequin Romances)!  And it's your daughter, dude, seriously!!

    by Bendygirl on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:24:28 PM PDT

•  I agree except...

  for the Washington game. This will be close but Seattle will pull it off. I watched Hasselbeck trounce a couple teams this year with ease and poise. And they've proven themselves adept in the playoffs.

  But, as a Giants fan, I want to see New York destroy Tampa Bay on Sunday. Bring it Eli.

  by maw150 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:55:44 AM PDT

  •  Seattle has had their moments this year

    I've seen most of their games since the BC channels always carry Seahawk matches.  I have to say this is one of the best seasons Hasselbeck has had, but that lack of a running game could be their achilles.  But if Todd Collins makes the mistake of thinking Lofa Tatupu is a Redskins receiver...

    I will admit that this is the toughest game to predict, but I'm going with the team with the most momentum and biggest heart (they did lose Sean Taylor to that senseless murder earlier this year, so they have something to prove to his memory).

    by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 11:58:48 AM PDT

•  Go Titans!

  Yes, we had a meltdown against the Chargers.  But it won't happen again.  And Vince Young will be healthy.

  At least that's what I'll keep telling myself between now and Sunday.

  Hey, we made it this far against all odds, didn't we?

  by GoldnI on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:00:18 PM PDT

  •  Might be better off with Collins

    I honestly don't know if the Titans would have won without Collins stepping in to make some key throws to get ahead.  He is obviously not flashy, but his relief performances this year are the reason why they're in the playoffs.  Remember that weird game against Houston where the Texans rallied back from what seemed like 80 points down?  If Collins hadn't made a key deep third down throw that ultimately set up the winning field goal, they would have lost that game.  Young might be a superstar someday, but right now he's so incredibly unpredictable.  And no QB with 9 TDs vs 17 Ints (I think those are his stats this year) should be considered a decent QB.  

    by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:03:20 PM PDT

  •  The Titans-Colts disgrace...

    Watching all Indy's stars wandering around grinning while their scrubs failed to score against a pathetic Titans defense was the low point of the season.

    (sure, I like the Browns, but even from a neutral perspective - you have to hope it carries over to the Colts getting slaughtered after their bye week)

    by Downpuppy on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:43:04 PM PDT

•  My Postseason predictions.

  (5) Jacksonville over (4) Pittsburgh
  (3) San Diego over (6) Tennessee
  (4) Tampa Bay over (5) New York Giants
  (3) Seattle over (6) Washington

  ----------------

  (5) Jacksonville over (1) New England
  (2) Indianapolis over (3) San Diego
  (1) Dallas over (4) Tampa Bay
  (2) Green Bay over (3) Seattle

  ----------------

  (5) Jacksonville over (2) Indianapolis
  (2) Green Bay over (1) Dallas

  _____________________________________________

  SUPER BOWL XLII
  Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars

  by Delaware Dem on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:09:05 PM PDT

  •  Green Bay wins the SuperBowl

    And Joe Biden wins the Presidency.

    Quicklund's long-shot wunderyear comes true???  :-D

    by Quicklund on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:33:14 PM PDT

•  Go Giants

  They won my heart with last weekend's game!

  by RandySF on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:14:04 PM PDT

•  My (very) post-season predictions

  for the only team that matters (hint: they're called the cleveland browns)...

  neither derek anderson nor romeo crennel we will be with the cleveland browns in 2008.

  a revamped defense, loads of cap space to spend, resigned (and reinvigorated) jamal lewis, and competent qb play by quinn will make the browns a better team, but their insanely difficult 2008 schedule (which includes just about everyone who is in the 2007 post-season) means they still finish 10-6 (though this time make a nice playoff run).

  at some point between 2009-2011 the browns will reward the hopes and dreams of all northeast ohians with a super bowl championship.

  by jonnykilbane on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:19:05 PM PDT

•  Jacksonville

  Is a dangerous team and I do see them going to New England for the divisional playoffs. However, I'm not sold on their mental toughness. New England is forged steel and I'm not sure if Jax is that strong.

  I would LOVE to see Washington at Dallas in the Divisional round though. HATE Dallas with a passion.

  San Diego I can see winning, but New York just spent a ton of energy playing New England and Tampa didn't. I'm going to take Tampa in that game.

  by Texdude50 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:23:16 PM PDT

•  hehe

  This has been a hobby of mine too.  For the last three years I've been doing this crazy graph theory approach of ranking nfl teams - basically, if you've beaten another team, you're ranked ahead of them, except for when there are win loops (I call them beatloops).  You can see it over at beatpaths.com.  

  Right now it's got Washington and Seattle as a pretty close game, but they're ranked #20 and #21 respectively.  Lousy seasons for both of those teams, although Seattle didn't even play anyone this year that is currently in the top ten.

  by tunesmith on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:32:30 PM PDT

•  My predictions.

  These are, of course, hermetically sealed in a #2 mayonnaise jar on Funk & Wagnall's porch.

  Wild Card Weekend
  (3) San Diego beats (6) Tennesee in a tough, physical game. Again, when push comes to shove, Tennessee won't have an answer for LT.

  (4)Pittsburgh beats (5)Jacksonville. I know, upset special. However, I think Pittsburgh is forced to approach the game differently with Willie Parker out. They had a ton of success in the second half against Jacksonville a few weeks ago throwing the football and I expect to see more of that.

  (4) Tampa Bay beats (5) NY Giants. Eli Manning won't play two consistent games in a row. Ronde Barber matchs up well 1-on-1 with Plaxico Burress and Tampa is an excellent pass defense. The turnovers that the Bucs create will be the difference in a tight game.

  (6)Washington beats (3)Seattle. The Redskins are playing very good football right now and it'll be enough against an inconsistent Seahawk club. Big days from Clinton Portis and a pick from former Seahawk Shawn Springs.

  Divisional Playoff round
  (1)New England beats (4)Pittsburgh.
  (2)Indianapolis beats (3)San Diego.
  (1)Dallas beats (6)Washington.
  (2)Green Bay beats (4)Tampa Bay.

  Championship Weekend
  (1)New England beats (2)Indianapolis.
  (1)Dallas beats (2)Green Bay.

  Super Bowl
  New England beats Dallas.

  by Danno11 on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:05:12 PM PDT

  •  Dallas beats Green Bay

    ...is a Right-Wing talking point.

    by Quicklund on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:34:41 PM PDT

•  East Coast Bias

  Seattle always gets less respect than they deserve.

  Watch Hasslebeck pick them apart since now for the first time all season he has all of his starting recievers healthy.

  Watch Lofa and Tru make Todd Collins wish he were back in college.

  Hawks win 28-13.

  by broui on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:13:46 PM PDT

  •  Not east coast here

    I'm in BC and see all the Seattle games on TV.  Hasselbeck does have the occasional brain meltdown problem, although this has been one of his better seasons.  I'm just not sold on them.  This season it seems like they most of the pieces, yet really weren't terribly impressive.  I do recall, for instance, that game against Carolina recently where they couldn't do jack squat in the windy weather, because they have no running game.  And Seattle can get some windy days...though I don't suspect that'll be the case this weekend.  I'm just going based on the hunch Washington is on a bit of a roll and Seattle throttled back last weekend when they really need to keep going full press into the playoffs.  

    I won't be surprised if Seattle wins.

    by ssmt on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:51:32 PM PDT