This week's oil & gas numbers: Waste heat

Both the oil & gas figures were released this morning, due to the holiday. Natural gas storage declined by 155 bcf, as expected due to the cold. Oil had a flat week. Neither report surprised much , nor caused any market movement.

In 2007, natural gas supplied was the highest since 2001. We managed to use a lot, too, even though the industries that used to burn it(fertilizer, aluminum, chemicals)haven't come back. In 2007, natural gas was cheaper than oil for the same energy.

With the supply situation stable for now, it's time to think about demand. Oil use is up a bit from last year, despite the higher prices. Natural gas used was up about 3% in 2007 over 2006.

I didn't post the oil report last week, which showed a build in stocks. It was the monthly extended survey, which catches up on some adjustments and tends to have big changes which are hard to explain. This weeks is simple & flat - for now, things are in balance.

Petroleum Stocks                                                           % Chg fr
(Million Barrels)                    01/18/08  01/11/08  01/18/07      Prev Week   Yr Ago
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude Oil (Excluding SPR)           289.4     287.1     318.5             0.8    - 9.1
Total Motor Gasoline                     220.3     215.3     220.6             2.3    - 0.1
  Reformulated                            1.5       1.5       1.4             0.0     7.1
  Conventional                          109.5     107.6     119.6             1.8    - 8.4
  Blending Components                 109.3     106.2      99.7             2.9     9.6
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel                  39.8      40.1      39.1            - .7     1.8
Distillate Fuel Oil (7)                  128.5     129.8     141.4           - 1.0    - 9.1
  15 ppm sulfur and Under                69.8      70.3      58.9            -0.7    18.5
  > 15 ppm to 500 ppm sulfur             22.8      23.2      26.0           - 1.7   - 12.3
  > 500 ppm sulfur                       36.0      36.3      56.5           - .8   - 36.3
Residual Fuel Oil                         38.5      37.9      42.4             1.6    - 9.2
Propane/Propylene                      45.4      48.7      53.8           - 6.8   - 15.6
Unfinished Oils                           83.1      81.0      85.2             2.6    -2.5
Other Oils (10)                          127.2     130.3     131.9           - 2.4    - 3.6

Total Stocks (Excl SPR) (7)              972.3     970.1   1,033.0             0.2   - 5.9
Crude Oil in SPR (11)                    698.1     698.1     688.6             0.0     1.4
Total Stocks (Incl SPR) (7)            1,670.4   1,668.2   1,721.6             0.1   - 3.0

Today's word is: WASTE.

Heating oil is at $3.33/ gallon, an all time record even adjusted for inflation. Propane stocks are again headed for trouble. Natural gas consumption is up.

None of this has to be. There are still millions of people who have absolutely no clue about keeping a house warm. They don't replace screens with storm windows, much less use caulk. They keep the thermostat at 72 even when they're out or in bed. (It seems the old myth that you burn less by maintaning a constant temperature is still alive. The myth is ridiculous - I have no idea where it came from) They have no idea what goes on in their cellars or attics, and heat thousands of square feet of house they never enter.

Spread the words - Insulation, thermostats, doors

•  3 numbers, please

  What is your heat set at?

  When you're in & up
  When you're out
  When you're asleep

  eg, 65,57,57

  by Downpuppy on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:18:04 AM PDT

•  the fault of free market theorty

  As always, the idealized conception of the free market has no bearing on reality. How many analysts predicted that $100 oil would dampen demand, that people would begin switching or reducing consumption, threby bring demand down, lowering the price. I don't know how many times these simplistic supply demand myths have to be proven actually false before they stop feeding us a fairy tale to explain our economy.

  by Marcion on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:19:55 AM PDT

  •  Well, actually

    The better economists have generally considered oil demand to be inelastic up to about $100 in the US, Europe & Japan. In the poorer countries, where consumption was small to start with, it has shrunk. There are local energy crises all over Africa & Asia.

    by Downpuppy on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:34:42 AM PDT

  •  on the other hand

    Where economists have gone wildly wrong on oil is on the supply side. They assume that rising prices for energy will magically create supply - either through more drilling (despite lack of good prospects) or substitution (despite the lack of good substitutes).

    by Downpuppy on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:46:05 AM PDT

•  Insulation, thermostats, doors

  In other words-- conservation. It's the low-hanging fruit. Here's another tip-- check your heating and AC ducts for leaks.

  Now for the really radical suggestion-- put another person in the room with you, it will double the efficiency of your heating/AC.

  My personal numbers: I heat with wood exclusively, which the last few years I've been able to scavange for free. I recognize this is not and cannot be a solution for everybody though. No AC, it is not needed in my area.

  by DBunn on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:29:09 AM PDT

•  Don't use central heat - ours inefficient , so -

  We use a combination of firewood on coldest nights , propane wall-mounted heater , and an electric heater in bathroom. So , numbers are measured by thermometer in area of house determined to be about average.
  63
  61-67 ;depending on outside temp.
  58 - 63

  Also use electric mattress pad - great for arthritis pain. Also have good quality Pendleton wool blankets made in USA and comfortable over a wide range of temps. Our total propane/wood/electricity cost for entire domestic use in a winter month averages $148 , in NE Alabama.
  Multipronged attack.

  by Abra Crabcakeya on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 11:33:04 AM PDT

•  Don't use oil or gas to heat

  We have electric heaters.  We live in the PACNW where most of the electricity is from hyrdo.

  However, our thermostats are at 55-60 all the time and we heat with wood.  Don't know if that's better for the environment or not, but it's better for our ailing pocketbook.The wood heat is free, it takes our labor and nothing more.  We take downed trees from my family's 40 acres for our heat.

  by sima on Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 01:48:32 PM PDT