Hillary, Not Obama, Defeats McCain
Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 04:40:00 PM PDT
I’m not usually big on parsing polls, but I took the time to examine the just-released Bloomberg/LA Times national poll as it was the first poll released since the candidates called a truce to the racial tensions that had exploded on the campaign trail.
This poll found that, contrary to Senator Obama's assertions, he is not the best candidate to go against John McCain in November. In fact, Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama, will defeat John McCain this fall. In that campaign, Hillary will get more support from women, Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans.
This new poll shows Hillary defeating McCain 46%-42%, but Obama being defeated 41%-42%. Why would Hillary defeat McCain but not Obama? It’s not independents, because they fare equally well among independents. In a Clinton-McCain match-up, they split the independents 39%-39%. Similar results are found in an Obama-McCain match-up—37%-37%.
Obama falls behind Hillary among Republicans and Democrats. Against McCain, Hillary carries Democrats 87%-9%, but Obama only carries Democrats 81%-9%. Similarly, Hillary would get support for 9% of the registered Republicans, while Obama would only get 3%. Fortunately, most of these votes aren’t going to McCain. In a Clinton-McCain matchup, 4% of Democrats are undecided or would vote for a third-party candidate. Among Republicans, that number is 11%. In an Obama-McCain matchup, those numbers rise to 10% for Democrats and 14% for Republicans. And for all the arguments about Hillary not bringing in female voters, she does much better among women than Obama, pulling 54% of the female vote against McCain compared to 46% for Obama.
The same trend is found when looking at the other GOP candidates. Hillary beats Romney 50%-39% and while Obama also defeats Romney by the same spread, 11 pts, he only carries 46% of the vote to Romney's 35%. Similar numbers are found for Mike Huckabee--Clinton 51%, Huckabee 38% & Obama 47%, Huckabee 37%--and Rudy Giulliani--Clinton 53%, Giulliani 37% & Obama 49%, Giulliani 32%. In all of these match-ups, Clinton gets more independents. Against McCain, Clinton 39%, Obama 37%. Against Romney, Clinton 49%, Obama 46%. Against Giulliani, Clinton 53%, Obama 45%. Against Huckabee, Clinton 46%, Obama 41%.
In addition, the number of undecided and third party voters increases when the Democratic nominee is Obama, primarily Democrats and female voters. Against Giulliani, Clinton gets 90% of Democrats and 58% of females while Obama only gets 85% and 53%. The number of undecided and third party voters increases from 10% (Clinton) to 19% (Obama).
I don't think that general election polls nine months out matter much, especially when the nominees are not yet determined. The race is very fluid and anything can happen. However, these numbers should give pause to those who believe that Hillary's high negatives are insurmountable and that our party's only chance is an inexperienced freshman senator who gives great speeches.
On a brighter note for all Democrats, the racial tensions do not seem to have caused a huge divide. When asked about running mates, Democratic voters signaled strong support for a unity ticket. Sixty-two percent (62%) said that Hillary should ask Obama to be her running mate, including 65% of women, 56% of white voters, and 80% of black voters. Sixty percent (60%) said that Obama should ask Hillary to be his running mate, including 67% of women, 53% of white voters, and 76% of black voters.
And so far, the overwhelming majority of voters aren't pointing fingers. When Democratic voters were asked if Hillary Clinton was playing the race card to get more votes, 22% said "yes" and 72% said "no." White voters, 18%-76%. Women, 21%-72%. Black voters, 27%-67%. When asked if Barack Obama was playing the race card to get more votes, 23% said "yes" and 71% said "no." White voters, 23%-70%. Women, 24%-69%. Black voters, 21%-74%.
If Democrats can make it through South Carolina without any additional major problems, and if February 5th proves decisive, the democratic coalition may hold together with no permanent damage. That said, if the unity ticket does not materialize, then the losing candidate's supporters may have an attitude change.
On an even brighter note, the Republicans are still a mess. McCain is leading with 22%, followed by Huckabee (18%), Romney (17%), and Giulliani (12%). Compared to the leading Democratic candidates, support is much softer with only 54% of McCain’s supporters certain they will vote for him. Support for the Huckabee and Romney was even softer at 52% and 49% respectively. Hopefully, Florida will come through for us and deliver a victory for Rudy Giulliani.
