REAL STORY -- Recession, A View From the Bottom

Okay, maybe a view from the middle. But I more or less found out I'm out of work today, so I feel pretty bottom-like at the moment. I thought I'd summarize what I'd seen recently, which makes me fear we're already in deeper trouble than those at the top will admit.

I work for (or worked for) a small company that sells training into the mid-corporate and education market; things like technical certifications, sales skills, computer skills, etc. For the last few years things were going reasonable well. But an adage in the training industry is that training is the first to go.

Which brings us to November 2007...

In October, out of the blue, sales just plummeted. We sell online and hosted training, on a platform I developed over the years. Sales had been pretty consistent, and suddenly they just fell off the map. Not just ours, but we sell through some other, big-name, channels and they suffered the same drop.

November and December brought more of the same. Big contract we thought we would close were suddenly delayed due to economic uncertainty. Our education clients, delaying due to uncertainty. Our Manufacturing clients, delaying because cash was tight. In every space we sell the story was the same. This was when the real estate problems were just hitting the news, before anyone mentioned recession.

The inevitable happened. Our owner is deeply tied into water rights and real estate, and he announced a few days ago that he's out of money. Much had been pulled from the company this summer to help cover other cash problems he'd had, and there wasn't even enough to really shut things down well.

So he's offered to let us work, if we want, with no real guarantee of pay. If training is a barometer of the economy, I think the problems are deeper and more systemic that anyone wants to admit. In different sectors, in different areas of the country, everyone seems to be bracing for the worst.

And, of course, as a diabetic with a pregnant wife I don't even want to think what the loss of insurance is going to do to me. While politicians debate weather or not we are going into a recession, while talking-heads on TV  discuss definitions and stock market fluctuations, my family and I will be desperately  trying to survive it.

I'm pretty sure we will have recovered before anyone admits, down the road, what those at the bottom have seen all along. The economy isn't great.

And if anyone is in the market for a slightly used Development manager...

[Update] Thanks to everyone for taking the time to read and express support. I'm sorry to hear other are  going through the same things as well. It feels good to vent a bit right now.

•  Tips

  I wonder if I can barter with Mojo?

  by DJ Adequate on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:13:43 PM PDT

  •  Well...

    it ain't much, but I like your userID.

    Can't pay much for it, though... I'm losing my job next week and haven't yet figured out what I'm doing next.

    Can you extend your health insurance through COBRA for now?

    by renaissance grrrl on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:23:27 PM PDT

    •  can't you retro active CORBA too?

      I think I did that when I was between jobs w/o insurance for 3 months.  Something about how you can go back and get CORBA later.  Thus, I didn't pay of it all, but if I would have gotten sick, I could retroactively get it.

      Dunno.

      Sorry about the job, DJ.

      by pacified on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:26:12 PM PDT

      •  Is it affordable?

        Your employer is allowed to charge up to 150% for a Cobra plan that would have been affordable if you were still employed by them.

        That has always been my main concern with Cobra, I love it, but I detest the allowable costs/charges.

        by panicbean on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:29:56 PM PDT

        •  It's been a while since I COBRA'd

          but yeah, you have to pay the whole cost of the plan, instead of having the employer cover part of it.

          However, the diarist indicated preexisting health issues and a pregnancy, so it would probably be worthwhile in the long run (if possible) to not allow insurance coverage to lapse.

          by renaissance grrrl on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:03:04 PM PDT

          •  I agree with you on that point.

            But there have been numerous people that I have known who simply could not afford the expanded cost of their COBRA plan.

            Another issue that needs to be addressed, unless we do get universal healthcare.  Go Edwards!  :)

            by panicbean on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:06:41 PM PDT

            •  Oh, yeah, definitely prohibitive at times.

              For me it would be.  But it depends on what someone's pre-job-loss financial situation was...

              by renaissance grrrl on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:12:53 PM PDT

        •  Nope.

          COBRA premiums can be up to 102% of the total of what both you and your employer paid when you were working. That can make it seem like 150%, but it really isn't.

          I know: I've been on COBRA more often that I'd like. The last time was after I left a job with the State. They paid 80% of my premium; I paid 20%. When I was working, it was only around $90/month; the full COBRA premium was closer to $500.

          DJ Adequate, since your wife is pregnant, check with your state's Medicaid program. Pregnant women (and children) are frequently eligible no matter what. Also, check to see if your state has a "high risk" pool for insuring people with pre-existing conditions. A guaranteed-issue policy will be expensive, but it'll keep your coverage from lapsing. (Like you, I have diabetes, so I've been there.)

          Do sign up for COBRA if you can. You can stay on that for up to 18 months, which'll give us time to get that universal healthcare they're all promising up and running. ;-)

          by Blue Nashville on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:06:58 PM PDT

          •  I hope eventually

            I hope that eventually have a really cute little baby out of this that could be the poster child for universal health care. I will have to check with the state, since as I mentioned below, COBRA doesn't work when the company shuts downs. (And it turns out the company hadn't paid it's unemployment insurance either.)

            by DJ Adequate on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:27:23 PM PDT

    •  Cobra

      The loophole is that COBRA only kicks in if your company is still providing insurance to other employees. Since my company is shutting down, COBRA is not an option.

      by DJ Adequate on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:22:33 PM PDT

      •  You Might Call Them

        When The Little Company shut down, I called the insurance company and they agreed to keep the policy in existence as long as I paid the premium.

        I was the only one insured under it anyway; the other two had gummint health insurance from spouses.

        Might as well call the insurance company and check it out. Your premium is their income. Maybe you and some other ex-employees can lobby for it.

        by JG in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:41:51 PM PDT

      •  Is that right?

        Boy, I didn't realize that.  That's too bad.

        I agree with other posters that your wife/child will probably not have a problem getting care (at least for pregnancy/infant period).  I'm more concerned for you.  Perhaps, if you have a regular doc, they might have some ideas on which way to turn?

        I wish you best of luck.  

        by renaissance grrrl on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:54:52 PM PDT

  •  Your bartering for mojo is fine with me.

    With your skills, you should be able to find another position, unless you live in an extremely rural area.

    I hate that you have to worry about healthcare costs, with all of the other costs and worries you have, right now.

    Bush and the Republicans refused to extend unemployment benefits in the new tax and spend stimulus plan, so there you go.  

    Fucking Republicans suck.  And Democrats run a close second for caving on that one, imho.

    Recommended.  And stressed.

    pb

    by panicbean on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM PDT

  •  Take a look at this

    http://www.piratefish.org/
    As a business model. If you have programming skills that lean towards open source, then imagine how your particular field could fit.

    This idea has been intriguing me for a while.

    There has to be other complex products that small businesses and individuals need us to figure out for them and then sell an instruction manual of cut n paste that is updated via annual subscription.

    Updating an older freeBSD system systematically is one I have been tearing my hair out over recently... All the howto's are out dated or include huge sections of deprecated docs. I would pay a small fee for good documentation if it were available.

    I am not going to buy the piratefish docs but only because I am unemployed myself and have plenty of time to figure it out by trial and error.
    But maybe I will write my own ebook when I get my install and update cycle mastered for my current server re-builds.

    No employees, home office tax writeoff, and the chance to sell administration contracts for those who find they really don't want to do the tedious work of administering a mail, web, despam or whatever server in addition to running their own small business.

    If a downturn brings belt tightening, then selling belts might keep you afloat.

    by NCrefugee on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:02:11 PM PDT

•  I'd say it gets better,

  but I've been waiting 5 years now, and it just keeps getting worse...best of luck, and cut everything to the bone NOW.

  by farmerchuck on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:28:44 PM PDT

  •  I'm thinking of removing bones at this point

    by DJ Adequate on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:28:51 PM PDT

•  Good Luck.....

  I wish I could help.  But I hope you find work soon, DJ Adequate and renaissance grrrl.  I've been looking for contract copy editing work for some time with no luck so far.  Things are worse than the politicians will admit, especially in an election year.  For what it's worth, we have to keep posting here and telling our stories.  The right wing gets gullible Americans to vote for them by slandering the unemployed and poor as lazy people who don't want to work.  

  It's heartbreaking to read these stories, but we have to keep them coming.    

  by altruista on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:30:34 PM PDT

  •  Recession Gits Me All Depressed

    I'm a copy editor too; here's my real story.

    My troubles began on January 1, 2000. Lost jobs because I was too slow and lots of other reasons.
    
    [Irony Alert] Had a teeny nervous breakdown, nothing serious, when working in the Bushevik Dept of Health and Human Services waaay back. The squeeze started really early.

    I'm on Soc Sec so have my mortgage and utilities covered. DJ Adequate, I hope your skills (including the ones you don't know you have) will put you back into the work world.

    (Don't you hate people who say "I'm sure you'll be all right — you're so talented!")

    by JG in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:54:40 PM PDT

    •  Get used to hearing

      "you're overqualified" if you're over 45. If your hair is a little gray, dye it now and don't worry that you might be seen as vain. This is a life and death struggle with HR managers who are in their 20's and think we are lying about using computers since before they were born..

      by NCrefugee on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:07:04 PM PDT

    •  OMG I hate when they say it too!

      Been there got the T-Shirt in November 2005.  Shook me to the core because I had been with the institution 17 years, started right outta college. They had an outplacement service for us but it was little more than, "I'm sure you'll be all right -- you're so talented!".  God I really needed competent advice then and more than a few prozacs.

      I managed alright -- was only out of work for about a month and 1/2 and I'm making a lot more money than I was but the job is miserable -- I broke out in hives at one point and the stress caused me to finally get down to the weight I was ten years ago (gee silver lining no?)

      But things are looking up, I hope -- got an interview next week, a former co-worker reconnected with me and arranged it -- it would nearly double my salary. Wow somebody wants me and wants to pay me well. There's gotta be a catch....

      by akeitz on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:22:15 PM PDT

      •  No Catch

        A real live opportunity. Ya gotta believe.

        Please let us know how it turns out.

        How does one do that, BTW, without actually writing a diary?

        —Newbie

        by JG in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:32:26 PM PDT

        •  I always said, I need to find the people who are

          looking for me.  I have faith in my talents a BA in History, years of experience in finance and databases but so little experience job hunting -- I felt like a lamb going to slaughter the last time around and only slightly less so in trying to escape a stressful soul sucking job.

          I think the best cure for my job hunting phobia is to finally have a good outcome <g>....

          by akeitz on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 05:18:06 PM PDT

•  Omg I'm so sad to hear your story

  You're wife is Pregnant? Wow.  It's truly sad to know that having a pregnancy can at times be a burden rather than a gift. I hope beyond hope the economy turns around very soon.  I'm just getting to the stage in my own life where i"m thinking of marrying my G/F and staring a family, but I have the exact same worry as you just realized... what if when i'm ready to settle down, the economy collapses...

  I was talking with a friend the other day, a business associate, who is the sales VP for an adhesive company that makes Water Based Glues used in Mattresses, Cars, Furniture, all kinds of stuff, big ticket items in the USA.  It's a very smart, lean company that is very broadly exposed to the economy.

  He reported that starting in November, sales fell to nearly Zero, and haven't picked up again yet.  He said they've had slow downs in the last Decade, but they've never ever seen a Stop the way they did just after Halloween

  by kubla000 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:31:36 PM PDT

  •  Glue?

    I can see training and editing being cut ... when they're in class they're not working, and when you lay them off the next person will already have the skill. Editors? Feh! Who needs 'em? My prose is perfect as it is.

    But glue? Glue? Everybody who makes anything needs glue.

    This is worrisome.

    by JG in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:01:26 PM PDT

  •  Interesting

    For whatever reason, November seems to have been the big crash. Interesting that it affected other industries as well.

    by DJ Adequate on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:30:24 PM PDT

•  I am truly sorry for your

  situation.  The "recession" has been on people who make less than $100K a year for quite some time....our spending has been curtailed on basics, nevermind entertainment or luxury, since last summer.  And we make above the median income.  Our grocery bill has gone up 25% easily in the last few months.

  I hope you find work soon.  And congrats on the baby!  May your family find many blessings despite the Bush-whacked economy.

  by PsychoSavannah on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:33:32 PM PDT

  •  second that

    the only up side (speaking as an older semi- pollyanna type or as my husband would put it "looking for the pony)is there are blessings you can count and life priorities become much clearer. Take good care.

    by peagreen on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:41:02 PM PDT

•  Let the People be Heard

  To help people find a voice among the tedious candidate Diaries -- it is time for people to tell Their Story in their own Diaries.

  These stories are the magic that will keep the elections relevant and point to the true leader. Your stories can and will change the outcome of elections. They belong on the Recommended List -- but we need to recognize them quickly.

  I propose that you begin your Diary with with the words "REAL STORY -- " Thus, this Diary would be titled:

  "REAL STORY -- Recession, A View From the Bottom"

  I will recommend all Diaries that begin that way. And I hope you will too. Let's take DKos back and let the people be heard.

  by Pluto on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:41:36 PM PDT

  •  Shouting from the Rooftops...

    I'm mad as Hell and I'm not going to take it anymore.

    (I rather liked that movie)

    by Mr SeeMore on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:11:02 PM PDT

    •  Here You Go

      

      Feel free to copy and paste my post, folks.

      Let's take it back. Let's be heard. Pundits belong on the Frong page.

      by Pluto on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:19:44 PM PDT

•  I am so sorry

  I am a solo practioner with 21 years as a litigator.  My last quarter earnings were astonishing, in the sense that they hardly existed.  Not only is fuel and food high as a cat's back, but heating, electricity, insurance on home and autos, property taxes...and the clients who are scraping together money to hire me are in worse shape then I am.  
  I am trying to recycle everything except toilet paper.  Health insurance is not within my financial reach.  
  I am not sick and am not pregnant, but I have a mare that is, and even the vet bills have skyrocketed.  I may have to disperse my herd due to the rise in feed and hay costs.
  We must get some help.  
  I am very fond of government cheese.  I may be living on it sooner rather than later.
  The best of luck on finding suitable employment asap.

  by on the cusp on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:20:27 PM PDT

•  I wish you the best of luck

  For both the job and the baby.

  This is what happens after 20+ years of bad policy.  Reward companies for outsourcing, make the bottom line #1 (screw people) downside and work the remaining employees like white collar slaves, make tax cut in the trickle down range instead of for the middle class that might spend the money, etc.

  We've reached the tipping point.  We've outsources all the middle class jobs and any that are left are essentially working two jobs for one salary (almost all the white collar folks I know routinely put in 60+ hour weeks).  It's a great deal for the companies, until you realize that there is no one to buy your product anymore.  Then the house of cards falls apart.

  by blues lover on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:20:46 PM PDT

•  I'm soooo sorry DJ Adequate!!!

  As I noted upthread, been there. It breaks my heart every time I hear about the innocent being put out the pasture. I fear it could happen to any of us no matter how hard we work, no matter how good an employee we are.  

  We need more stories like this -- putting a human face on the suffering of the middle class. It's far more painful drop without a safety net these days -- if the pundit class is scratching their heads about why we're all scared and not spending money -- WAKE THE FUCK UP AND SEE HOW THE REST OF US LIVE!

  by akeitz on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:27:27 PM PDT