SC Polls Have no Indep./Repubs: Is this Potentially Huge?

Just heard on MSNBC, Time Reporter Jay Newton-Small say that the Democrat polls did not include polling of Republicans or Independents and SC is an open state.

Her blog post on Time's website has this quote from Jim Hodges (former gov. of SC)

"There was a relatively low turn out in the Republican primary last week and Independents and Republicans are not bring polled," said former south Carolina Governor Jim Hodges, who has endorsed Obama. "It will be something to watch tomorrow."

First, is this true?
And second, if true, isn't this a potentially huge pocket of Obama support given the votes he got from independents (and a few Republicans) in Iowa and NH?  

•  I heard that too...

  ...but I can't believe it. Something is wrong here. Why would ALL the SC Dem polls -- if the primary is in fact open -- not include I's and R's?

  So, anyway, I'll just confirm that some woman on MSNBC just said this, but I can't believe it...

  by Addison on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:44:58 AM PDT

  •  Very good question. Why WOULD nobody

    ask the Indies?  That seems extremely unlikely..more likely we're just not being told how the polling among Indies is shaking out.  And that begs the question..why NOT?

    by sherlyle on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:49:01 AM PDT

    •  Because

      historically except in states like NH, Indies don't get involved in primaries. Usually it's just partisans who do so, and since this is the first time SC has had a real say on the Dem side there are no historical trends to go by either.

      by PLS on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:57:43 AM PDT

      •  That would make sense, unless there's been

        a large uptick in new Independent registrations, or people who don't normally bother to vote in a primary do plan to vote this time around.
        Wonder how the turnout is going so far?  Is it about average, or higher?  Anyone know yet?

        by sherlyle on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:22:05 AM PDT

      •  2004 and 1992

        South Carolina played an important role in both of those years - especially in 2004 giving John Edwards the delegates to continue on for a few weeks and giving John Kerry his first loss.

        by jlemere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:18:26 AM PDT

  •  That doesn't make sense

    Pollsters wouldn't fuck up that badly.

    But if for some reason it's true, I think it would help Edwards more than Obama, given the racial polarization.

    Most of the indies and Repubs would be white, and wherever he goes Edwards does well with independents and Repubs, especially in rural areas. Plus they might want to help out the homestate boy.

    by david mizner on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:53:43 AM PDT

    •  I looked at the polls out yesterday

      and they did break down the Republicans and Independents.  Obama had the most Independents and Edwards the most Republicans.

      by mjd in florida on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:57:13 AM PDT

      •  Survey USA

        link downthread finds that E and O are tied about indies and E ahead among the small number of R's.

        But among the Independents, Obama and Edwards are effectively tied, with Clinton a dozen points back.

        Among the admittedly tiny handful of Republicans who tell us they will vote in the Democratic Primary, Edwards leads Clinton and Obama.

        by david mizner on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:01:43 AM PDT

        •  It will come down to who has the best GOTV

          with Republican voters.  Obama has done well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada in rounding up these voters.

          by Yoshimi on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:11:25 AM PDT

        •  Reminds me of the reaction of Repubs

          in Iowa to Edwards.  They like his economic plans a lot.  One elderly Repub told me it was "elegant".  They are not, of course, nearly as fond of his stands on social issues, but they do not doubt his strength on national defense or the economy.

          by sherlyle on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:17:27 AM PDT

    •  Obama is the one that attracts independents

      and Republicans it would benefit him. Not the other two candidates.

      by ronnied on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:38:01 AM PDT

      •  Uh

        Survey USA

        Republicans
        Clinton - 31%
        Edwards - 34%
        Obama - 26%

        Indepedents
        Clinton - 20%
        Edwards - 39%
        Obama - 36%

        by Shawn on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:55:12 AM PDT

  •  Survey USA Has the Numbers--Here's the Data

    This is from my Diary yesterday on DailyKos that can be viewed in its entirely--including the youtube videos of all five focus groups since the beginning of the year choosing John Edwards as the winner of the debates in IA, NH, NV and SC--at:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Although Edwards has risen in every single category measured by Survey USA, some of the gains in the last week have been meteoric. Among Republicans who say they'll cross over to vote Saturday, Edwards has risen from 12% to 34%. Among Independents he's up from 27% to 39%. Among White South Carolina voters (who make us 55% of Saturday's estimated voters), John Edwards is up from 26% to 38% and has tied Hillary Clinton (who has dropped 12% among Whites in the same time.)

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    Here are the tabulated Survey USA changes for the candidates from Jan. 18 to Jan. 25.

    Category   Edwards %    Clinton  %    Obama %
    ----------------------------------------
    Independents 27 to 39    32 to 20      29 to 36

    % Pts. Change  +12%       -12%           +7%          
    ----------------------------------------
    Republicans  12 to 34    29 to 31      52 to 26

    % Pts. Change  +22%        +2%          -26%
    ----------------------------------------
    Democrats    14 to 18    36 to 32      48 to 48

    % Pts. Change   +4%        -4%            0%
    ----------------------------------------
    Blacks            3 to 6      20 to 18      74 to 73

    % Pts. Change plus 3%    minus 2%      minus 1%
    ----------------------------------------
    Whites          26 to 38    50 to 38      22 to 21    

    % Pts. Change plus 12%    minus 12%     minus 1%
    ----------------------------------------
    SUSA Ttl. 01/18       15%       36%          46%

    SUSA Ttl. 01/25       24%       30%          43%

    % Pts. Change     plus 9%   minus 6%     minus 3%
    ----------------------------------------
    Zogby 01/23        15%       25%          43%

    Zogby 01/25        21%       25%          38%

    % Pts. Change      +6%        0           -5%      

    So it seems likely that Edwards will continue rising toward the finish line and Saturday could produce a very exciting race for second place between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

    by Hoomai29 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:04:31 AM PDT

•  The Republicans voted

  in a primary last week and those that voted cannot vote again.

  Interesting that some Obama supporters look to Republican voters instead of Dems.  

  by TomP on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:46:10 AM PDT

  •  Yep. We're technically closed, in that voting

    in one means you can't vote in the other. I was afraid this morning I was going to have to find some kind of party identification card, but fortunately it's not quite that stringent.

    by steve davis on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:47:55 AM PDT

  •  True. Only stupid people

    want accurate polling.

    by JayGR on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:49:31 AM PDT

  •  But...

    ...turnout for the R primary was lower than it could've been because of bad weather.

    And TomP, you know the electoral stupidity of whining about Independents and -- though it's a strawman compared to the Independents -- Republican's voting for Obama, it's been explained to you over and over again. Your aware of the arguments, but can help yourself going for the cheap shot. So I won't even bother to explain it again.

    by Addison on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:50:06 AM PDT

  •  I think you forgot the independents

    ...and yes, Obama's campaign has been clear that they're courting independents "and some Republicans."

    Regardless of what you think about Obama going after independents, that doesn't change the fact that it could have a large impact on the vote.

    by OneRandomScientist on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:50:26 AM PDT

    •  Didn't you know that Indies and Reps aren't

      real Americans?

      by JayGR on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:51:34 AM PDT

      •  It's a crime

        to be an Independent. Never mind Republican. And forget about welcoming them to the Democratic party if they realize their own party doesn't speak to them. For that you're drawn and quartered.

        by bumblebums on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:55:49 AM PDT

  •  Who is being testy now?

    I was posing questions about the polling, not looking

    to Republican voters instead of Dems

    by janis on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:50:43 AM PDT

  •  Yeah,

    but they voted in lower numbers than usual, as did the Indies... The point is were they waiting to vote today? As for relying on Republicans and Indies too for an Obama win, we do want that. Why? Because unless we build a new working majority we will continue to have the same difficulties getting any real change.

    by PLS on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:54:03 AM PDT

  •  Hillary leading among Republicans in SC

    ..over Obama by 5%. Obama is leading among Democrats (by 16%) and self-described liberals (5%).

    Obama needs the base of the democratic party to show up. Thanks for asking though.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    by Scarce on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:03:47 AM PDT

  •  Actually we look to both Tom

    I wonder why most of our candidates continue to run campaigns that don't try to expand the Democratic party electorate.

    You of all people argue that Edwards can run better in southern states.  I assume that is because he can pick up Independents and Republicans.  Is that right?

    You need to sit down and be quiet.

    by Yoshimi on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:08:09 AM PDT

  •  I think Edwards will win

    Indys and Rethugs in SC.

    by IhateBush on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:19:43 AM PDT

    •  i think edwards will win SC

      phone bank at www.johnedwards.com

      by WNCEdwards08Indy on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:23:04 AM PDT

  •  Interesting That Others Don't Want to Expand

    our base and increase votership and participation.  All big movements in this country require broad participation (Civil Rights, Social Security, etc.)

    You realize that, Tom, don't you???

    by serrano on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:27:22 AM PDT

  •  they said the turnout last week was low among

    republicans and independents. They feel they would vote today.

    by ronnied on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:39:51 AM PDT

•  I'd think most goopers voted last week

  since the GOP race was interesting.
  Indies should break for Obama.

  by ParaHammer on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:47:00 AM PDT

  •  they could just as easily

    go Edwards, imo, especially after the debate performance of Hillary and Obama.  

    by DrKate on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:03:16 AM PDT

•  Not entirely true

  SurveyUSA has included Is and R, and they're not as pro-Obama as in other states: http://www.surveyusa.com/...

  by Ryan Anderson on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:49:24 AM PDT

•  I do not

  think indys/repub will be a significant factor today so polling probably reflects that.

  by Hawkjt on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:51:09 AM PDT

•  According to Pollster.com, it's apparently NOT ..

  true:  http://www.pollster.com/...

  And you can certainly see that in this Public Policy Polling poll, there were some Republicans and Other (presumably independents) included.  And they're certainly included in this Survey USA poll, too.

  by leevank on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:55:00 AM PDT

  •  That sucks

    Wasted three partial paragraphs on a non-issue.

    by LaEscapee on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:10:36 AM PDT

•  true, you can vote in any primary

  of the calls i made this past week for john edwards several, say a dozen out of 100 said that while they were republicans and had voted for bush that they had not voted in the republican primary and intended to vote today for edwards. not one of them indicated that they were going to vote otherwise.

  i was shocked but i think that they all had been democrats before and had changed affiliation earlier, yet they were returning to the democratic party because of edwards rhetoric about the middle class and poor.

  few of them appeared to be the independent upper-middle class and professionals that obama is courting, but simple working class people, aka reagan-type democrats

  if those folks actually come out to the polla it'll kick up edwards 5% points.

  by kuvasz on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:04:52 AM PDT

  •  Unexpected but interesting

    I'm sure the post-poll analysis will be fascinating with all these possibilities in the mix.

    by Joffan on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:12:45 AM PDT

  •  Ah. No.

    If the Edwards campaign gave you the call list, then it was of likely Edwards voters, so it is not surprising that they broke for Edwards.

    by Travis Stark on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:33:58 AM PDT

    •  no, it was not

      i worked from lists provided by the voting registrars of south carolina, no party affiliation was provided. my work was only later collated into a call list of likely edwards voters. i worked from raw data.

      that's why i suspect a greater-than-polled level of support for the guy.

      by kuvasz on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:57:18 AM PDT

•  I think Indies and Rethugs

  will go for Edwards mostly.

  by IhateBush on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:18:27 AM PDT

  •  I figure rethugs would vote for Hillary

    Since that's who they want to go up against....

    by Sharon in MD on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:18:26 AM PDT

•  If this is true it's huge

  If Republicans and Independents were not polled, the hold onto your hats folks, those polls are meaningless and we have no clue what's going to happen today.

  by Travis Stark on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:32:23 AM PDT

•  Answer to your Question

  No. African-Americans are now convinced that Barack can win the presidency, thus, they now overwhelmingly support Obama over Clinton. In South Carolina, over half of the Democratic voters will be African-American, this bodes will for Obama even though only Democrats can vote in the primary. It also bodes well for Obama to sweep the Deep South.

  by BlueTide on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:51:17 AM PDT

  •  It's an open primary

    n/t

    by Shawn on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:57:58 AM PDT

    •  Thanks for the Clariication

      The answer is still no. Obama's margin of victory will just be larger. It may make a difference for the race for second place. However, Clinton seems to do better among independents than Edwards. Normally, I would say that means Clinton will finish better than expected. However, I wonder if the independents are the most dissatisfied with the hard ball politics played between Clinton and Obama. Thus, Edwards might do better than expected. We'll just have to wait until tonight and see.

      by BlueTide on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:11:37 AM PDT