Will Obama win South Carolina?

Now the game of expectations...

It seems that most folks have already concluded that Obama will win South Carolina.  Therefore, if Obama wins, has he really won?

No doubt, the Clinton Machine did a good job of lowering expectations in both New Hampshire and Nevada.  So when Hillary won by just a few points, it seemed like a big deal.

So to be fair, it seems that if Obama wins SC by the same margin that Hillary won NH/NV, then Obama should receive the same positive headlines.  After all, a win is a win is a win.  Futhermore, if Obama wins South Carolina, he'll expand his lead on pledged delegates.

My guess is Obama will win South Carolina by 5 points, and that'll be just enough to give him good headlines across the country.  I think this bump will keep Obama competitive going into Super Tuesday and beyond.

The other big question is whether or not Edwards will be viable if he doesn't win South Carolina.  He had based his whole strategy on the early states, and if he goes 0-for-4, it seems unlikely that he'll win any states.  I doubt Edwards will drop out before Super Tuesday, but other than maybe Oklahoma, I'm not sure what state he can realistically win if he loses South Carolina tonight.

Just for fun, I've made my predictions.  There's no science behind this, and I'll probably have different predictions tomorrow.  (The states are sorted by delegate size.)

What are your thoughts?  Any polls or personal anecdotes as to why you think your preferred candidate will win your state?  Keep in mind that these primaries are proportional, so even if Hillary wins California, Obama can still pick up a huge chunk of delegates.

SUPER TUESDAY
California - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Illinois - Obama
New Jersey - Clinton
Massachusetts - Obama
Georgia - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Tennessee - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Arizona - Clinton
Connecticut - Clinton
Alabama - Obama
Arkansas - Clinton
Oklahoma - Edwards
Kansas - Obama
New Mexico - Clinton
Utah - Clinton
Delaware - Clinton
Idaho - Obama
North Dakota - Obama
Alaska - Cinton

9-Feb
Washington - Obama
Louisiana - Obama
Nebraska - Obama

10-Feb
Maine - Clinton

12-Feb
Virginia - Obama
Maryland - Obama
District of Columbia - Obama

19-Feb
Wisconsin - Obama
Hawaii - Obama

4-Mar
Texas - Obama
Ohio - Clinton
Rhode Island - Obama
Vermont - Obama

8-Mar
Wyoming - Clinton

11-Mar
Mississippi - Obama

22-Apr
Pennsylvania - Obama

6-May
North Carolina - Obama

6-May
Indiana - Obama

13-May
West Virginia - Clinton

20-May
Oregon - Obama
Kentucky - Clinton

3-Jun
Montana - Obama
South Dakota - Obama

•  We'll know tonight

  And of course a win would give him a bump.

  by Iddybud on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:38:45 AM PDT

  •  I hope he wins. And if he does....

    it would be great if he won by 6 or 7 points... AND Edwards came in Second!!!

    by kubrick2008 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:57:25 AM PDT

    •  Naturally, I hope Edwards wins...

      ..and I hope no one woud assign me any sinister motives for that hope or tell me how he's not number one in the polls. I'm not naive. I watched MSNBC for two hours this morning and heard John Edwards name come up in quick passing two times while the other two darlings were put at ground zero of the hyped-up controvery at tumultuous levels. A fake controversy sells more insurance policies against "diabee-tus" and more tiolet-bowl cleaner.

      by Iddybud on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:40:13 AM PDT

•  Tips for momentum

  The Obama Super Tuesday strategy is firing on all cynlinders!

  

  by Texas Populist on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:39:17 AM PDT

  •  Great Analysis, But....

    I think Obama has a decent chance at Alaska (office there), Colorado, Delaware (large Black population, were Biden to endorse him it would be a cinch), and, in Arizona (where I am), a new poll out today shows he has gained 11 points within days!!!

    He is up on the air, but so is Hillary.  Janet Napolitano's endorsement is huge, particularly among female voters--she has a powerful following!!!  An Obama appearance here would cinch it.  As HRC spoke at Cesar Chavez HS the other nite, a Latina activist opined that Cesar would be spinning in his grave!!!

    Si, Se Puede!!!!

    Btw, I'm very encouraged to see you believe he can win Texas---that could be a big key!!!  Also, having read here about the extensive organizing he has done in Cali, I've not given up the ghost on that yet, either--he has an impressive and energized cadre of Latino State Legislators supporting him there...

    by serrano on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:48:54 AM PDT

    •  He's definitely got Alaska...

      at least we're trying!!!  FIRED UP!!

      by mayachay on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:56:32 AM PDT

      •  Yeah I think Obama takes Alaska

        He's the only one with an office here and he's got a few talented staff members, getting people organized for a caucus in which turnout is traditionally extremely low.  Also, this state is mostly young and mostly male.

        by Troutnut on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:46:41 AM PDT

        •  He's big in Alaska

          Obama is very strong in Alaska, and not just among Democrats. He's gotten the support of former Republican (and Independent -- long story there) Gov. Wally Hickel.
          Anyone who assumes Alaska goes for Clinton knows little about Alaska.
          Clinton is selling herself as seasoned and experienced, and she may well be, but Alaskans don't put much stock in experience. Alaskans like insurgents and anti-establishment types. Alaskans right now are definitely in a mood to overturn the establishment (witness the last election). You'll see the same thing on the Republican side when lots of people go for Ron Paul.
          Now let's hope that mood extends to our own Congressional reaces.
          A couple of things to consider about the Alaska caucus:
          -- Obama grew up in Hawaii, Alaska's fellow non-continguous state
          -- Obama's chief of staff is from Alaska
          -- Obama was the first presidential candidate ever, as far as anyone can remember, to set up a campaign office here
          On the other side:
          -- Alaskans have never had any presidential campaign pay attention to them, so people here are kind of unsure about how a caucus works, or what to do at one.
          To get a sense of the pro-Obama mood in Alaska, check out this story in the current Anchorage Press:
          http://www.anchoragepress.com/...

          (Oh, also, Alaska may have a young population, but it is NOT overwhelmingly male. It's more like 51-49 male-female, contrary to myth.)

          by mtn mama on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:24:45 PM PDT

          •  Everyone I've talked to about Obama here in

            Alaska says they don't like Hillary.  

            by mayachay on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:05:54 PM PDT

    •  Arizona polls were from different outfits

      Not indicative of any momentum yet.

      by cn1044 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:57:16 AM PDT

      •  True that one is BRC and the other Cronkite

        but Obama is launching a 60-SECOND Spanish ad this weekend, and a 30-second one by Janet.  Janet is a real powerhouse in this state, and not to be underestimated...I know!!!  She is tremendously influential, particularly, w/women, and has a Mother Lode of an e-mail list, and people pay attention to her e-mails!!!

        Don't count Barack out here...if he shows up....

        by serrano on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:07:13 AM PDT

•  And even if Obama wins South Carolina

  Clinton may still get the plurality of the delegates ...

  by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:39:27 AM PDT

  •  Doubt It...

    by serrano on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:49:27 AM PDT

    •  Those are the rules ...

      If you accept the Nevada results, you have to accept these, right?

      by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:51:49 AM PDT

      •  of course

        I would also accept the results if Gravel won the plurality of delegates.

        by a wolf raised by boys on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:58:05 AM PDT

      •  But Obama's leading in all regions in the polls

        So even if delegates are weighted oddly, he is strong everywhere in the state. I don't think we'll get a 'lose the pop. vote, win the delegate count' this time, unless it is a razor thin victory.

        by bflaff on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:55:52 AM PDT

        •  Got a link? I haven't seen in-state regional

          polls. No diff from Greeneville to Charleston? That seems peculiar ...

          by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:59:03 AM PDT

          •  PPP did it by area code

            Not sure if this is good enough to differentiate between Greeneville and Charleston, but here's the link. PPP main page

            The poll I'm referring to is the SC poll for Jan. 25th.

            by bflaff on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:23:50 PM PDT

            •  Interesting that they have a breakdown

              by party affiliation, with Obama having the lead among Republicans.

              Did they poll only Democratic primary voters or all South Carolinians? Would you trust a response from a self-avowed Republican who says he/she will vote in the D primary? Generally, when there are few members of a sample who belong to a category, the results will be reported with an asterisk as statistically unreportable.

              I find that whole thing strange, but thanks for the link - it's information, anyway.

              by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:37:20 PM PDT

  •  No. way.

    I bet 4,000 quatloos Obama wins a plurality (actually, I expect a majority) of SC delegates.

    by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:05:52 AM PDT

    •  How many CDs will he win a majority in?

      He'll probably get two or three more delegates than Clinton statewide - how do you see the split in the Congressional Districts?

      by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:11:01 AM PDT

      •  He'll win in four or five.

        This will be Obama's New Hampshire.

        by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:23:03 AM PDT

        •  And do they have an odd or even # of delegates?

          It's easy to get the extra delegate in an odd-delegate district, but the pattern has been to split the delegates in the even-delegate ones, even with a decent margin. Of course, with Edwards in the mix taking at least one delegate in each CD - he is guaranteed at least one anywhere he tops 15% - it may be the advantage is in the even-delegate districts in this particular primary.

          Frankly, I prefer WTA. It's this proportionality that gives the supers all their power.

          by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:28:52 AM PDT

          •  Trust me. HRC will NOT win the delegate race in

            SC.

            Take it to the bank.

            by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:35:44 AM PDT

            •  LOL I have absolutely no idea who you are

              but my daddy taught me when someone says "Trust me" it's time to turn around and walk away ...

              by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:53:02 AM PDT

              •  Okay. So now (after midnight Sat/Sun)

                do you trust me?

                I'm afraid I was wrong that Obama would win four or five cong districts. Looks like he won all six.

                My bad.

                by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:39:48 PM PDT

•  I'm not seeing any chickens right now.

  They don't seem to have hatched yet.

  Let's hold off on calling SC for anyone until we have the results of some actual votes.

  by mistersite on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:39:59 AM PDT

  •  I agree....

    by slinkerwink on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:40:49 AM PDT

  •  Agreed

    We don't know what's going to happen tonight.

    by turneresq on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:40:51 AM PDT

  •  After what happened in NH

    I can't see how any Barack supporter would feel comfortable before the votes are counted.

    by psycho liberal on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:30:31 AM PDT

•  SC wins easily. I'm not so sure I agree

  with your other predictions. A poll in TN yesterday has Clinton up big. The last poll in Mass. was a huge Clinton lead but I don't know how old that is.

  Unfortunately for Edwards, I don't think he'll pull out Oklahoma but I'd like to see him do it in order to stay in the race as long as he can.

  by tabbycat in tenn on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:45:31 AM PDT

•  Obama mus win big tonight

  and he probably will, but the AA vote does not a candidiate make...

  by Zain on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:47:26 AM PDT

  •  that's why he couldn't get traction in Iowa

    by a wolf raised by boys on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:28:43 AM PDT

  •  What's with the retaliatory...

    ..."hide" ratings dude? You called people for Obama, "Obamathugs" which is trollable. I hid your comment and you did the same to me, a clear violation:

     

    6.  Do note give retaliatory troll ratings. If you get what you believe to be an undeserved troll rating, do not retaliate. Leave it to others to decide if the rating was abusive. It is begrudging community practice to respond to an undeserved troll rating by troll rating the ratings abuser, thus reducing their own level of "trustedness" and making them less able to abuse ratings in the future. But don't do it unless you are absolutely positive the original rating was abusive -- and I mean 100% positive. And never do it if you're the one that got troll rated. I repeat: do not troll rate fights that you yourself are in.

    by MichaelPH on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:32:56 PM PDT

•  I'm Surging!

  Yes, I'm surging, surging to the forefront!  The Forefront of those who've read all the dubious polls based on tiny samples of those dumb enough to talk to a phone pollster.  I'm surging to the forefront of those who'll ignore the internal tabs which show so many undecideds in the small sample phone polls.  I'm surging to the forefront of those who ignore the margin of error in the small sample telephone poll of those dumb enough to talk to a telephone pollster.  I'm Surging, Baby, I surge!

  I'm active present participle verbing for MyCandidate^TM!

  by Rolfyboy6 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:50:01 AM PDT

  •  TMI

    nt

    by George on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:53:36 AM PDT

•  Only 5 points?

  You'd better hope he wins by more than that, or the media will have a field day suggesting that he didn't really win with an electorate that's nearly 50% African-American.

  He'll win by more than 5.

  by fou on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:50:29 AM PDT

  •  I say Obama by 12.

    You read it here first.

    by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:06:46 AM PDT

•  tonights speech

  assuming the win will give him the bump more than the results. Obama has to take on the "black candidate" thing with humor and passion tonight.

  by nevadadem on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:55:02 AM PDT

  •  If he wins, his speech will be Awesome

    by kubrick2008 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:58:16 AM PDT

  •  Will he dance?

    I never actually realized the inequalities involved until he made that remark about Bill Clinton dancing on Monday.

    Had Sen Clinton made any similar reference the blogospere would have been all over her as some kind of racists who thinks people are defined by their natural rhythm.

    Funny stuff.

    by Clem Yeobright on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:07:14 AM PDT

•  Polls for the super tuesday states

  Do not look good for Obama.  (He's down by 37% in Mass!)  He needs a big win tonight to get some momentum.

  The only state where he's leading or within single digits of Clinton in recent polls is Illinois and Georgia.  

  by cn1044 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:55:25 AM PDT

  •  It's about Delegates, baby

    And all those states are NOT winner-take-all. meaning it's a complicated numbers game.

    by kubrick2008 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:59:38 AM PDT

    •  If Obama can't get within single digits in

      at least half those states then he's in trouble because he'll be so far behind in delegates.  That's just the reality of it.  He needs momentum badly, is all I'm saying.  

      Still a long way till then though.  An eternity in politics.  

      by cn1044 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:02:50 AM PDT

•  South Carolina

  may actually win Obama.

  I don't know what this means. The momosas made this make sense.

  by JohnGor0 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:58:46 AM PDT

  •  Mmmm..... mimosas..... s/c

    spell check.

    Mimosas are great the traditional way: champagne and orange juice.

    For something a little more.... exciting... any of these variations:

    Add a touch of Midori.

    Add a touch of Cranberry juice (try to find 100% cranberry, not a cocktail).

    Add a touch of Galliano.

    Add a fresh strawberry at the bottom of the glass.

    Btw, also delicious is champagne and cranberry juice or cranberry puree.

    by nicejoest on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:13:08 AM PDT

•  Right now, it doesn't matter what everyone's...

  predicting.  If you live in South Carolina go out and vote for OBAMA!

  by mayachay on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:06:52 AM PDT

•  The Truth and the Spin

  Will SC give him a bump? Depends on 4 factors

  1. How many white voters vote for Obama.

  2. How many black women voters break for Obama- because if Clinton gets them, it will be all about splitting the black vote.

  3. Undecideds- I still don't know if Obama can WIN this thing given 19% are still undecided.

  4. Delegates split: If Obama wins but Clinton takes delegates, expect a reversal of what happened in Nevada.

  If he wins, it will be like " AA state". If he loses..."He couldn't even convince his own people". If he wins but splits delegates evenly or loses delegates count on the Clinton camp deeming his victory meaningless.

  I hope he wins. I hope Edwards comes a very strong second. I prefer it if no one  candidate goes forward with all the momentum.

  by imported beer on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:09:28 AM PDT

•  Of course

  Of course Obama is going to win...

  I don't even think this is being debated anymore.

  by GregNYC on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:09:39 AM PDT

•  Think you have

  Texas and Ohio switched personally.  Latino population major player in Dem Primaries in TX, African-American population major player in OH.  The true bell weathers on the 5th are going to be Missouri and Tennessee imo...altho I am curious to see what a Napolitano end. carries in AZ.

  by marcvstraianvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:14:11 AM PDT

  •  Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland

    is with Hillary and Stephanie Tubbs Jones is as well.  

    by EricRSINY on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:32:27 AM PDT

•  your predictions are worthless

  considering Obama is down by huge amounts in Tenn and Massachusetts polls but somehow he will win... Probably he'll win hope.

  by Chuckie on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:43:06 PM PDT

  •  same with Alabama

    Obama is way down there... So where are these predictions coming from?

    by Chuckie on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:44:33 PM PDT

  •  actually I just looked and new Missouri poll from

    Rasmussen shows Clinton up by 20...

    by Chuckie on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:46:34 PM PDT