Edwards still standing

"He doesn't know it's a damn show! He thinks it's a damn fight!" - Apollo Creed's trainer, "Rocky" (1976)

For once the pundits and the pollsters seem to have gotten it right.  South Carolina was a big win for Obama; Clinton did take second place; and Edwards got nearly precisely the numbers predicted for him in the last Zogby/CNN poll.  They can now calmly return to doing what they were doing before, confident that what they say is true and that everyone is doing what they have been scripted to do.

Except that John Edwards is not doing what he is supposed to do.  He doesn't know it's a damn show.  He thinks it's a damn fight.

Edwards is staying in the race, as he has always said.  

His advisors are saying things like "look at the polls in Oklahoma" where Edwards is running a strong second, where Obama has little support.  And people like myself have been saying for some time that one of the two celebrity candidates, the ones getting all the media attention, is likely to pull out of the race at some point, possibly as soon as the morning after Super Tuesday.  If Edwards is still standing, it will be him against just one of them.

More practical types are saying that Edwards is staying in the race so that he can show up at the Democratic National Convention in Denver with truckloads of delegates, and play the role of kingmaker (or perhaps emerge as a dark horse favorite after a few rounds of deadlocked balloting).

But I think he's staying in the race because he actually believes the things he's saying.  He really does want to guarantee health care for all, end poverty in America, and strengthen trade unions.

In the next few days, the squabbling between Clinton and Obama is likely to become uglier and meaner than before.  If you thought Bill Clinton was a vicious attack dog before South Carolina, wait till you see him now.  The mainstream media called this race a long time ago, and are baffled at Edwards for still being in the ring this late into the fight.  (Meaning, those that even notice he's there.)

John Edwards has survived four rounds in the ring with the political equivalents of Apollo Creed.  His nose may be broken, his eye may be cut, but he is still standing.  Call him stubborn or call him persistent, but I grow more impressed with him every day.

Senator Edwards -- as long as you are in this fight, I am behind you.

•  yup

  That's why he's going to be president in twenty years.

  My gut feeling about John Edwards is that he has not yet begun to fight.

  by VelvetElvis on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:42:28 PM PDT

•  new JRE fundraising drive...

  diary with date here:

  Valhalla's Diary

  --poligirl

  by poligirl on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:42:40 PM PDT

•  I don't know

  I appreciate the causes that he espouses, but I can't see how his remaining in the race benefits them in anyway.  It actually diminishes him and his causes.

  He can be easily ridiculed as a man who cannot face reality (not completely without merit) for remaining in a contest that he has no reasonable hope to win.

  He is going to get virtually nil press anyway at this point.  If he truly cares about his causes, he should bow out now, retain his dignity, and continue to fight for those causes in a different forum.

  by El Yoss on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:48:23 PM PDT

  •  Come on, you know better than that.

    Why should he bow to the pressure of big media?  He has a viable voice in this race, and the best is yet to come.

    He is getting more and more media attention the longer he stays in, his fundraising numbers are up, and his message is on point, and one well worth hearing.

    Support your candidate freely, but please don't discount Edwards, he is well worth looking at and voting for, in this, the most important Presidential race of our time.

    Thanks.

    pb

    by panicbean on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:00:55 AM PDT

  •  Why advocate that the one Dem who

    is showing backbone should instead quit? Sheer lunacy!

    by ice2wata on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:27:40 AM PDT

  •  What's ridiculous

    is that we are letting the corporate media feed us horse shit.  We have been letting them tell us from day one that this is a two-person race.

    There are Democratic voters all across the country that want to cast their ballots for the candidate who gave them voice.  We do not want to be settling for second choice, not in the primary.  And we do not abandon our cause in the midstream, just because the going gets tough.

    I have been told we have no hope to win before.  I went on an amazing ride with the Howard Dean campaign four years ago - from being an asterisk in the national polls to shaking up the Democratic race and leading it to finally being torn down by the establishment - all in less than a year's time.  But what we didn't do was lose our nerve and go home.  If you won't believe me, take our feelings from your own candidate:

    Out of many, we are one.  While we breathe, we will hope.

    -Barack Obama, victory speech in South Carolina, 1/26/07

    by deaniac83 on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:09:00 AM PDT

    •  I don't give a f*** what Obama says

       or what Dean says.

       The only voice that counts right now is Edwards voice because he seems to be the only grown up.

       Edwards can win against McCain -- the others are big question marks.

       

      by Carib and Ting on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:26:35 AM PDT

    •  As time passes though

      its less "corporate media horse shit" and more voters registering their feelings about the candidates at the polls.  Unless Edwards can pull off several wins, then the evidence proves that the majority of the national electorate agrees with "corporate media horse shit".

      by Marc in CA on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:15:37 AM PDT

      •  "the majority of the national media agrees..."

        nah, more like they've been dooped into being fed that horse shit.  That's what's scary.  When it comes time for the general election campaign, the media will turn to a different horse shit, and it ain't going to favor the Democratic nominee.  If the majority starts feeding on - or in your terms, agreeing with - that horse shit, we're in big trouble.

        by deaniac83 on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 11:59:27 AM PDT

        •  Ah but that's the reality

          of national politics ... whether you like it or not.  It was the unfortunate fate of Dean, but a harsh reality of his candidacy (one that hit this Deaniac like a ton of bricks).  If you can't maneuver and manipulate the media in your favor, then you won't win.

          by Marc in CA on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 12:00:56 AM PDT

  •  It's not about John Edwards

    As he himself says. It's about his message, which his opponents are increasingly assimilating into their platforms.

    I just wish he'd show up on the Capitol steps Monday and holler 'no retro-immunity for telecoms', i.e. show some real leadership.

    by jakebob on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:01:58 AM PDT

•  Stay in John, I'm with you all the way.

  Money is on the way.
  Thanks for this diary, you did good.

  by ichibon on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:50:41 PM PDT

•  Why do you think ...

  ... Obama or Hillary will drop out after Super Tuesday?

  Just curious.

  by zephron on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:50:49 PM PDT

  •  Good question.

    I'm curious too.

    by Free Spirit on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:56:31 PM PDT

  •  Why either Clinton or Obama will bow out

    Because for several decades now, that's why Democratic candidates for President do when a front-runner emerges.  There will be intense pressure on them, especially when there's squabbling and bickering going on, to "unite the party" and not to give the Republicans ammunition.  Anyway, if Clinton does very, very well in Super Tuesday and emerges with a convincing lead in delegates, Obama may decide either that it would be nice to be vice president, or that at 46, he can easily run again in 4 or 8 years.  (Clinton is unlikely to have the same view of her future.)

    So based on history, my guess is that one of them drops out on the morning on Wednesday, February 6th.

    by ericlee on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:16:07 AM PDT

    •  The problem with your reasoning is

      that for the last several decades, there have been decisive front-runners going in to Super Tuesday and there has also been known Republican opponent (incumbent or VP).

      Nothing could be further from the truth this time around.

      And if there's going to be any "intense pressure" to "unite the party", its going to come down on Edwards the hardest first.  And as long as Edwards refuses to end his candidacy, there's no reason for Clinton or Obama to do so either.

      by Marc in CA on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:21:22 AM PDT

•  hey, I say this as an Obama supporter

  the fact that Edwards continues to fight for his cause is inspiring.  I hope he keeps it up and stays in this thing until the end.  It matters.

  by JCross on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:57:52 PM PDT

•  Edward's needs to use the song

  "I'm Still Standing" as his theme every time he walks out on stage from now one.  

  A little Elton goes a long way.

  by Chamonix on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:59:35 PM PDT

  •  Great campaign song for him!

    And us, his supporters, too!  We are still standing, right beside him.  :)

    by panicbean on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:02:56 AM PDT

    •  everytime Obama wins or speaks

      I always hear "Signed Sealed Delivered. You remember these things. Remember Bill Clinton and "Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow."

      by Chamonix on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 09:03:59 AM PDT

•  So is

  MIKE GRAVEL!

  EDWARDS/GRAVEL 2008!

  by Holdek on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:25:08 AM PDT

•  So like Monty Python's Black Knight

  who got his limbs lopped off in turn, getting only 19% in a state he had won before is "merely a flesh wound!"?   John will not be the Democratic Party Presidential candidate - end of.  He has a very worthwhile message to project, which you'd hope can still be built into the campaign all the way to November.  And whilst he stays in, then he probably picks up enough delegates to deprive Barack and Hillary from getting to the winning post before the Convention.

  But then what - there is a hugely polarising shit-fight, where Clinton gets to play Michigan and Florida games and indulge in the dirtiest of backroom deals - and the whole process becomes a giant negative for the party, as the media slices and dices.  My worry would be that it could cost the election.  

  So for the sake of the prize of the White House, I think John should withdraw and let the other two slug it out to a result in the primaries.  I would want John to urge his supporters to pour out and vote for Obama - and would hope that would be enough.   But make no mistake - a brokered convention is going to suit the way Hillary plays politics...

  by Last Best Chance on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:28:14 AM PDT

  •  Or

    I think Obama should withdraw and  let John and Hillary fight it out...

    or...

    I think Hillary should withdraw and let Obama and John fight it out.

    In all seriousness, I see Edwards staying in it till the convention. No one is getting a majority till then, and if Edwards keeps piling up delegates, anything can happen.

    18% in SC is a good start.  Edwards is polling strong in Oklahoma, and his economic message is going to play very well in the Appalachian states.

    He could very well win a state like Pennsylvania or Ohio.  

    After an entire winter and spring in a deadlocked race, with Billary and Obama flinging mud at each other like there's no tomorrow, who is to say that Edwards doesn't emerge as the compromise nominee in a brokered convention?  It's not as if Hillary or Obama supporters hate Edwards.... and there is some evidence that those two groups hate the opposing candidates.

    One more point -- if Hillary tries to seat Mich and Fla delegates to push her over the top, you are going to see an opposition like you've never seen before. No way the party is going to let two states disenfranchise the other 48. It wouldn't stop till the supreme court, if it comes to that.

    by elpepe on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:38:31 AM PDT

    •  "Anything can happen"?

      Well, yes.  A global plague; an asteroid hit; America converting en-masse to Buddhism; discovering the moon is indeed made of cheese.  And John Edwards winning the nomination.  

      by Last Best Chance on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:51:24 AM PDT

      •  Four states have voted

        44 to go.  You can go along with the corporate media's force-fed interpretation of the race, or you can live in reality. No one has close to the delegates she needs for the nomination, and if the pace continues as it has in the first four contests, no one will have the delegates she needs to win the nomination until the convention.

        While I admit at this stage an Edwards nomination is less likely than an Obama or Clinton nomination, it is slightly more likely than the discovery of moon cheese. (but not nearly as delicious)

        by elpepe on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:54:50 AM PDT

        •  Wot?

          "You can go along with the corporate media's force-fed interpretation of the race"

          One of us is a realist, whilst one of us has a sense of optimism tipping over into delusion.  If it was a truly free press, owned by a love and honesty-based workers co-operative, it would still be unable to report that Edwards is a winner.  He ain't.  Not this time.  

          Let's say that it gets to the convention and we have Obama with 42% of the delegates, Clinton with 42% of the delegates and Edwards with 16%.  Why would 84% of the delegates want to elect the guy with 16%?   He can't carry anything other than a small slice of his party - what makes you think he could carry the country?  The only way that works is if he is in the wrong party - and Republicans are waiting to rush to give him their vote!  And I really don't think that is the case....

          by Last Best Chance on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:13:59 AM PDT

    •  Obama is hurting the Democratic party

       HE should step down.

      by Carib and Ting on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:28:33 AM PDT

•  I actually think Pluto might be right...

  The next four years are NOT going to be pretty.  We're looking at a one term president whoever it is.  When the next president caves in more to special interests, continues to sell off the US government to private contractors, and the economy tanks, there may be a lot of nostalgia for the guy we could've had...

  John Edwards  

  If he stays in the race, even if he doesn't win it, people will remember how his positions compared to the other nominee's positions.  There will be a time when we're all wishing someone like him was in the white house instead.  

  You heard it here first

  by invisiblewoman on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:46:22 AM PDT

  •  It's not over yet.

    John still believes he can win. And that's enough for me. I stand with him.

    by cosbo on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:48:48 AM PDT

    •  He can win still

      Someone posted the real number of delegates (minus the supers) and compared it to how many you need to win the nomination.  We're a long way off.  This race has still just begun.  

      by invisiblewoman on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 01:02:50 AM PDT

•  I don't have a problem with people supporting

  Edwards.

  But this idea that Obama or Clinton are going to come out of Super Tuesday and quit because the other candidate has more delegates is ridiculous.  Neither one will have enough delegates to secure the nomination after Super Tuesday and they will both continue fighting for every last delegate until one of them has enough to secure the nomination.

  Why would either one of them pull out as long as Edwards is still in the race with the fewer delegates than either one of them?

  And let's say for the sake of argument that one of them does make such a ridiculous decision and pull out early.  What makes anyone think Edwards would suddenly secure such a huge majority of the abandoned supporters that he'd have more than a snowball's chance in hell of catching up and eventually surpassing the remaining candidate's delegate count?

  Its crazy illogical.

  by Marc in CA on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 02:11:42 AM PDT

•  Irrelevant, used to be relevant and relevant

  In a nutshell, that's how Obama supporters size up the three candidates. On one level it may be correct. Obama has reached deep into the consciousness of people who have been left out, regardless of whether his professed policies would, in fact, bring them in. In a real sense, the perception is as important as reality.

  With respect to his ability to win the presidency, it is probably true that Edwards has now been rendered irrelevant. On the other hand, he may be the most relevant candidate in terms of the outcome of the nomination.  If he gets out, Hillary who should be in the used to be relevant category, may come back like the terminator and win simply because the remaining primaries favor her in a two way race. If Edwards stays in Obama has a chance.

  All that said, the personal sacrifice required to help someone else win may be too much to take, particlarly because it is accompanied by extreme embarrassment. But, what's new.  Edwards has spent this campaign advocating for those who don't vote for him.  The irony is that if keeps doing so, he will serve the interests of those who not only won't vote for him but wish him gone.

  by Wally in Miami on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 03:17:03 AM PDT

•  This country would be a lot better if

  We had a JRE on every street corner shouting about America,s ills. Please note that he has done nothing to denigrate either of his opponents. Would we not be better off if the other two did likewise?

  by orisk on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 04:03:28 AM PDT

•  Edwards has the true Democratic message

  Hillary and Obama are bought and paid for by the same corporate interests that run the country now under Bush.  I can't believe more on this site can't see that.  Average folks didn't pick Clinton and Obama as candidates, they were picked by corporate pundits more than a year ago.  The corporate world has all their money on McCain, Giuliani, Romney, Clinton, and Obama.  The only thing that could upset this rigged game is a determined fighter like Edwards.

  I don't care if Edwards became a real populist last week or last year.  The point is he is one now, and I'm with him all the way.  Corporate America is scared to death of him, and are pulling every lever they can to black him out of the screen.

  by leftinmontana on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 04:37:52 AM PDT

•  I belive more than EVER

  that John Edwards is the man who can win the fight to get us Universal Healthcare, who can win the fight againts Big Pharma and Big Oil. He's a scrapper and he doesn't run. This campaign is proving it.
  I will vote for John.

  by votermom on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 10:47:55 AM PDT