Niki Tsongas seat safe for now

Democrats in MA -- and throughout the country -- should be breathing a sigh of relief right about now, because it looks like newcomer Niki Tsongas (MA-5) has a clear ride through to re-election in the fall.

Tsongas's biggest threat was a rematch against Jim Ogonowski, the former Air Force officer and the brother of a 911 martyr who had run against her in the special election to replace Martin Meehan last year.  Ogonowski ran a tough campaign and picked up 45% of the vote -- to Tsongas's 51% -- in what has historically been a safe Democratic district.  The speculation at the time of the special election was that Ogonowski would come back this year, perhaps pulling off the upset this time around.

Instead, he shoots himself in the foot and guarantees Tsongas's seat.  Details on the flip...

Ogonowski announced yesterday that he is passing on the rematch and will instead run against John Kerry for US Senate.  The Boston Globe points out this is Kerry's first serious challenge Gov. William Weld ran against him in 1996.

The Globe also points out that Kerry has about $10 million cash on hand.

Ogonowski has about $100,000.

This year is shaping up as a wave year, with Democrats well-positioned to make gains in both the House and Senate, not to mention winning the White House.  Kerry's seat is about as safe as a Senate seat can be.  Tsongas, as a first-term representative with no real track record, might be considered vulnerable.

Thank you, Jim Ogonowski, for relieving us of a potential headache.

•  Tips

  for a permanent Democratic majority!

  by litho on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 08:55:07 AM PDT

•  Me thinks Mr. Ogonowski has an

  inflated sense of self-worth to take on Kerry with no money.

  by psycho liberal on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 08:55:58 AM PDT

  •  methinks mr. ogonowksi

    has an inflated sense of self-worth to take on Kerry, period.

    by blueness on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 09:13:56 AM PDT

  •  Ah

    but I think he can keep Kerry down in the 60% range this year.

    But even if he does as well in MA-05 as he did last time, he still won't even come close to winning.

    by nrafter530 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:04:55 AM PDT

•  Excellent news!

  As a MA Democrat it heartens me to see her maintain her seat.  Although, there is still time for someone to challenge her seat, no?  Regardless, I'm also feeling a sense of relief full well knowing that his challenge to Sen. Kerry is foolish at best and verging on stupidity at worst.

  by Casey on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 08:59:03 AM PDT

  •  There's plenty of time

    for another challenger to step forward.

    I don't see any of them being as credible as Ogonowski, though.

    by litho on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 09:00:00 AM PDT

    •  You're likely correct.

      It seems Kevin Scott (someone who was considering a run) acquiesced and gave his support to Ognowski.  Still and all, I doubt Ognowski will win.  Good for Niki!

      by Casey on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 09:03:18 AM PDT

•  Ogo was doomed anyway

  The only reason he did as well as he did was especially high turnout in Republican leaning towns.  Local Republicans were excited at the first shot in decades of winning in a congress seat in Massachusetts and Tsongas did not do a particularly good job of similarly inspiring her base.  In a Presidential election, the Democrats will be out in force and Ogo would have been doomed.

  by Marcus Graly on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 09:37:01 AM PDT

•  Ogo and Immigration

  Ogo ran a very nice grassroots campaign. But he blew it by harping on the immigration issue. Lowell and Lawrence  (the largest cities in the distric) have large immigration populations. It was also clear that he was going to vote lockstep with Bush agenda (pro-war and anti-SCHIP) were timely and eye opening for Independents.

  Kerry will crush Ogo.

  Haven't seen Nicki since the swearing in. Is she doing anything?

  by Free Speech Now on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:07:24 AM PDT

  •  I'm not in her district

    but I did hear she just got back from a fact-finding to Iraq and Afghanistan.

    by litho on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:14:11 AM PDT