Florida?

I don't have a clue how important Florida will be going into Super Tuesday. Despite it having no delegates, a big win for Hillary can be spun to her advantage, and a poor showing for her can be spun against her.  The former seems far more likely, with the only question how she does in the nearly-non-existant expectations game.

She's polling over 50% to Obama's ~25% and Edwards ~12%. That leaves 18% ~11% (oops) undecided, and poll numbers based on an electorate that may or may not turn out for their prospective candidate in the absence of Democratic GOTV, and knowing that they are going to the Convention without any promise of delegates.

Will Obama's big outcome and endoresments help him make it close in Florida? Will Edwards partisans take their energy to the polls without the need for much GOTV?

The big question to me is what does this do on Super Tuesday.  Can something happening in Florida, under these circumstances, make a difference then?  And I think it can.  The media will be reporting the results.  Hillary will get face-time on TV to talk about the results and her resurgent campaign.

Next time, if the FL or MI (or whatever state) party snubs the rules, let's take the road that the GOP has taken, and seat half of the delegates, and have a campaign there anyway. Who wants a big change in the eventual result coming from a state where there has been no campaign?

•  I don't care who wins Florida

  but stripping them of the delegates is idiotic. That punishes the voters, not the legislators who came up with the idea.

  They should be seated, whether Obama, Clinton, Edwards or Gravel wins them.

  That's why I was so pissed that Obama and Edwards did not campaign or compete in Michigan. Obama eliminated a state he could've won or kept close because of this stupidity. Clinton could very well get the nomination because of Michigan or Florida, and as much as I'm not rooting for her to get the nomination, if that's what throws it to her, then the other campaigns deserved it.

  by nrafter530 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:11:47 AM PDT

  •  It's not the first time that what the Fla Senate

    did bit the voters in the butt. And it certainly won't be the last.

    The government down here is too clever by half. I'm hoping the tax reform referendum goes down in flames. We need to put the state government on notice, Floridians demand a serious and competent government. Playing games with our elections, forcing bad legislation on our citizens and doing nothing while insurance and tax costs devastate homeowners is going to get these clowns thrown out on their butts.

    by blueintheface on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:23:26 AM PDT

  •  Should Have Been Avoided

    More Democrats may vote in the Florida primary (such as it is) than in New Hampshire & South Carolina combined. It's going to be hard to ignore that the DNC plans to disenfranchise so many people. Plenty of blame to go around, but this should have been fixed months ago. The GOP plan of just docking states some delegates for jumping the gun on the primary calendar turned out to be much smarter. Wasn't this forseeable? I'd say yes, and Dean and the DNC will deserve the blame if the convention blows up in the biggest credentials fight in history and/or the nominee loses in November because Florida & Michigan go to the GOP.

    by Realist2004 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:04:54 AM PDT

•  I'm watching CNN right now.

  There have been several stories this morning on the GOP primary in FLA. I've yet to see mentioned any indication that Democrats are voting there this morning, too.

  I think the possible effect negligible.

  by turnover on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:12:47 AM PDT

  •  Well, Pat and I are voting anyway

    There's more than presidential candidates at stake (a property tax amendment that looks to cause more harm than good). And as for the candidates - delegates or no, the results will give one of them reason to pound his or her chest, so what the hey.

    by PatsBard on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:15:52 AM PDT

•  average Joe voter probably doesn't

  even know that Michigan's and Florida's delegates might not be counted. Average Joe just sees "who is up, who is down".

  And maybe that Florida is an important state (having some vague memory of 2000).

  A Florida win helps Hillary going into 2/5

  "Endorsements" don't really count for much. Ted kennedy might be important in Massachusetts, but he hasn't been a player on the national stage since Chappaquiddick.  

  by libertyisliberal on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:18:30 AM PDT

  •  Chappaquiddick was in 1969

    Please...

    Ted Kennedy has been an icon in the Senate is whole career.

    Are you saying he has had no "player" role since 1969?

    I hope your comment is a snark.

    Ted Kennedy has just said it is okay for every Super Delegate who was afraid to select Obama because of the wrath of Hillary to now come out for Obama.

    And, he is letting the left wing of the Democratic party (which Teddy represents) that Obama has his seal of approval.

    Ted Kennedy should have a huge impact in retiree locations like Florida and Arizona.

    His endorsement may have been too late to help in Florida, but it will help in Arizona and California (not to mention the North East)

    by davidslane on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:26:47 AM PDT

    •  I am sure he is a great Senator

      but that is most relevant in Massachusetts. Many older people remember Chappaquiddick as the (likely) reason he was never a serious contender for President. Retirees anyone?

      I don't think any endorsements really mean much.  His impact in the Northeast is agreed.  Outside the Northeast, the Kennedy family (not just Ted) hasn't been very relevant for a long long time.  

      Nuts and bolts legislation? Sure. But who outside of this orange website even knows about that.

      by libertyisliberal on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:34:52 AM PDT

      •  Yea and old and young alike remember

        Monica, Paula Jones, Jennifer Flowers, Mark Rich, etc.

        by ronnied on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:39:29 AM PDT

        •  true, but they didn't die while with Bill

          by libertyisliberal on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:43:13 AM PDT

  •  Exactamundo ...

    The whole business with delegates is mysterious to most people (shades of the Electoral College). People relate to voting, and Dems relate especially to voting in Florida.

    Having said that, early primaries get attention mainly when they deliver surprise results. Obama's SC win hasn't given him any national mo to speak of, because in spite of the big margin he was expected to win it. Likewise an expected Hillary win tonight will be no surprise.

    But one indirect effect: After the big media shitstorm, a FL win shows voters in Feb 5 states that it's okay to vote for Hillary, in fact it's widely popular.

    by al Fubar on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:42:32 AM PDT

•  Seems like

  ...there was a lot of attention spent on Michigan here, despite--or maybe because--two candidates were in the mystery "Uncommitted" category. All kinds of weird spin analysis went into dissecting that "Uncommitted" vote--which as really a misnomer becuase all indications were that Edwards and Obama supporters knew what "Uncommitted" meant.

  But today's primary would seem to be of far greater significance--more population than Michigan and everyone's on the ballot. No need to read the tea leaves so much this time.

  The more one thinks about it, it seems totally absurd that, what is it, the fourth most populous state, with so many diverse interests.

  by jmknapp on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:21:17 AM PDT

  •  whoops

    left off:

    ...would be disenfranchised in the Democratic Party.

    by jmknapp on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:23:12 AM PDT

•  Any Chance Obama could win?

  Hate to follow the South Carolina stereo-types, but:

  In Florida, there is a large African American population and a large college population.

  Polling numbers have been wrong because they have assumed low voter turn out (particularly by African Americans and young voters) modeled after past primaries.

  But what if turn out is very high by those two groups.

  Could Obama get most of that 18% undecided. What about 80% of additional votes.

  Will the endorsements yesterday peal away Hillary votes.

  He could win or come close.

  What will that do for Hillary's victory party in Florida tonight?

  Here's hoping.

  by davidslane on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:22:02 AM PDT

  •  an Obama win in FL would help him

    obviously, but doubtful the polls are THAT wrong. If so, THAT would be the story.

    Hell, if Edwards wins, THAT would be the story....

    But I don't want to cause hyperventilation here.  The polls are probably not that wrong.

    by libertyisliberal on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:25:03 AM PDT

  •  I'd love to think so...

    I'll be voting for Obama today, but I think the chances that will happen are extremely small.  Even a close win would be embarrassing for Hillary.  She's pushed this whole "the delegates should count" thing because she thinks she'll win in a landslide.  If she doesn't, there will be a real story there.  

    by smash artist on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:28:48 AM PDT

  •  .00000001 Chance

    The state is ideal demographically for HRC.
    It's a closed primary.
    Florida has one of the highest median ages.
    Florida has one of the highest percentages of Jewish voters.

    The number will look like SC - only reversed.

    by johnnygunn on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:35:06 AM PDT

    •  Yep.

      This thing is all Clinton.  There's no way Obama will even come close to winning.  The demographics (lots of old money) favor HRC heavily.  And when I mean heavily, it's going to be a landslide victory for Clinton.  Too bad the primary had to be moved up...I would've liked to see what a campaign looked like down here.  It's a shame.

      by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:04:16 AM PDT

  •  by the way

    my math is atrocious - that undecided should be closer to 11...

    by smijer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:37:09 AM PDT

  •  obama is polling at 9%...

    ...among 65+ seniors, and among hispanics. NINE PERCENT. probably a third of the electorate is either 65+ or hispanic. he's not going to win.

    by campskunk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:46:04 AM PDT

  •  turnout

    At least where I voted this morning, turnout was absurdly low.  You would find more people waiting in line at your typical grocery check-out.  It's a shame that our state effectively has been neutered.

    by eightlivesleft on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:49:12 AM PDT

    •  Well Republican trunout should be decent...

      Maybe your polling place wasn't representative.

      Of course, a lot of people did mail in ballots in Florida (I think over a million) so maybe that is part of the story.

      by redhaze on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:14:09 AM PDT

•  Some Obama

  folks here are in Florida, as I recall. I'm curious about the "temperature" down there. Who will be voting in this race that doesn't count, anyway? Because it would be smart for someone to be organizing something (separate from the campaign of course). I trust Howard Dean, but still...

  Here's what I am hoping to see--Obama does better than his latest Florida poll numbers. If he wins, which seems pretty unlikely, even better (and a good gauge of his momentum going forward), but if he beats expectations, the whole thing becomes a non-story: Hillary narrowly wins in a state where she was leading the whole time and which doesn't count--doesn't shake the race much.

  by JMS on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:24:02 AM PDT

  •  Floridian Obama supporter here...

    This is what I've seen from the ground here in Orlando:

    1. Lots of Republicans.  Lots of evangelicals.  There's a Democratic hotbed here downtown (College Park, Thorton Park), but that's about it.  Lots of Independents as well.

    2. Lots of Clinton supporters.  Even my mother (who can't vote because she's not a citizen) supports Clinton (because of Bill), and thinks Obama is too young.  Most of them claim the 'experience' meme.  Not a lot claim the 'first woman president' thing so much that I've seen.

    3. Obama's an unknown quantity to some here.  There are a ton of low info voters and college students (the campus here at UCF is inudated with Ron Paul signs) here where an appearance or a rally would have made all the difference for Obama or Edwards.  That said, there's a bit of apathy now.

    4. Lots of early voters, so the chances of Obama pulling in closer to Clinton are slim.  I still think it'll end up being 53-55% Clinton, 20-25% Obama, and 15% Edwards.

    by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:39:13 AM PDT

    •  a question

      Lots of Independents as well

      is it a closed primary or can the independents vote?

      by Marlboro Lite on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:41:40 AM PDT

      •  I just talked to a buddy of mine...

        He thinks that Indy's have to request a D & R ballot at their polling place.  Which makes sense, in a way.

        Unfortunately the only registered Indy that I know with that knowledge (my brother) is out of the country.

        I'll look into it.

        by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:45:01 AM PDT

        •  Nope

          You must be REGISTERED to a specific party.  You cannot go in as an independent and request a ballot.  Registration closed weeks ago.

          by donnamarie on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:00:13 AM PDT

          •  Thanks for the info! n/t

            by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:05:44 AM PDT

    •  what about the college vote, there are many

      colleges and universities in Fl.

      by ronnied on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:42:32 AM PDT

      •  I'm not really familiar with the college vote...

        I don't know many students at this time or their views (socially).

        But with UCF, USF, FSU, Miami, Rollins College, FAMU, UF, et cetera, you'd have to assume that Obama could make a dent here.

        If Obama's ground game was here in full force, then there's a possibility of a surprise result in the primary.  But the older vote here would most certainly trump the college vote.  Older folks that I've known of here are active in politics, much more than most assume or presume.

        by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:49:49 AM PDT

        •  ground force?

          wouldn't that break the no campaigning agreement?
          Or would they just say "We were so moved we did it all by ourselves".

          by J Rae on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:03:12 AM PDT

          •  I phrased it wrong...

            ...that probably should've read: "supporters acting of their own volition, independent of the official campaign".  Thanks for catching that.

            by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:05:20 AM PDT

            •  yes

              It can be very hard to make those surragates behave. Can't make them keep their mouths closed and can't make them not campaign.

              by J Rae on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:11:35 AM PDT

      •  Part of the problem with ....

        the Obama camp depending on that demographic, especially here in Florida where the Democrats have been silenced by the DNC, is that those same 'young independents' are the fuel for the Ron Paul camp as well.  If I had a nickel for every RP sign or group of signholders I've seen here in Daytona, I'd be able to buy a new kayak.  RP had a freakin' blimp flying over Florida lately.  The indy youth is not Obama's to claim here.  

        by emsprater on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:10:21 AM PDT

•  We may not like that Florida isn't given a voice

  but of greater concern is that while unfair to begin with, everyone agreed by the rules and has upheld them. Now the Clinton campaign is trying to benefit from the gullibility of the other campaigns.

  Personally I'm offended at the idea that the Obama campaign had somehow broken the pledge by running a NATIONAL ad that just happened to air in Florida, therefore giving the Clinton's all the excuse that they needed.

  This primary counts for nothing. Its unfortunate, but because the rules have been in place and the candidates have up until now abided by them, it has to be that way.

  by mihan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:27:53 AM PDT

  •  You made me laugh with this:

    "Now the Clinton campaign is trying to benefit from the gullibility of the other campaigns."

    I share your sense of outrage at the betrayal of gullible people everywhere!

    by Jim J on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:32:33 AM PDT

    •  I'm not sure if you are with or against me

      so I'll just give a wink and a nod and move on.

      If Hillary thinks she's winning the nomination because she managed to get Florida delegates seated at the end this thing is really going to get ugly.

      by mihan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:34:50 AM PDT

      •  Come on, if the vote does go Obama's way

        you'll be among the throng here screaming "disenfranchisement" at the top of your virtual lungs and you know it. Let's at least strive for some minimal intellectual honesty here.

        by Jim J on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:36:19 AM PDT

        •  that's actually not true

          I expect Obama to lose Florida, mainly b/c the demographics aren't particularly favorable and the fact that he hasn't campaigned or organized in the state.

          Florida is one of those states that had Clinton as a default candidate and it would have took a really strong effort to overtake her. I wouldn't cry about disenfranchisement and I'm actually a bit pissed that you would make that assumption.

          What will upset me is the seating of the delegates, not the election itself.

          by mihan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:44:01 AM PDT

  •  This primary counts for ...

    However much media attention it gets.

    This isn't the first time Hillary has suckered Obama, and it won't be the last. Coming down to crunch time he has become very reactive.

    by al Fubar on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:45:57 AM PDT

    •  its not 'suckering'

      its flat-out disregarding the rules to gain an unfair advantage. If she wins the nomination because of it, it'll forever count as a tainted victory once the PR battle gets fought.

      by mihan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:47:54 AM PDT

      •  I am not sure what you are saying she did

        Breathing maybe?
        Just state how you think she got an unfair advantage.

        by J Rae on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:59:30 AM PDT

        •  pledging not to campaign

          for one, and then doing so. Pledging to get delegates seated when every campaign had agreed previously that Florida would not count due to violating party rules.

          Its a pretty blatant attempt to try to claim an advantage by way of manipulating the circumstances. If it benefits your candidate though, I'm sure you couldn't care less about what the Democratic Party decided to do.

          by mihan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:03:24 AM PDT

          •  This was debunked yesterday

            There was no campaigning. And HRC did not run ads there either, national or otherwise.
            She attended a fundraiser, allowed within the rules.
            And BHO attended several fundraisers in FL, and gave an interview there.

            by J Rae on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:08:12 AM PDT

          •  This is preposterous ...

            Hillary has not violated anything. She merely suggested that the delegates should eventually be seated - something the convention itself has the last say on, and always has.

            What always amazes me is the combination of blind establishmentarianism and sheer stupidity on the part of the whiners. As if Dem primary voters out there in the real world give a flying fuck for DNC rules, or even comprehend this idiotic primary schedule.

            What Dems out there in the real world do understand is counting votes in Florida. Hillary is entitled to take every tactical advantage of voter sentiment, and she is doing so.

            by al Fubar on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:11:21 AM PDT

    •  who's getting suckered?

      I don't think it's Obama... I think it's the National Democratic Party... you know, the party she wants to represent...

      You can't fool somebody who's just playing by the rules.

      by gregonthe28th on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:58:11 AM PDT

      •  Oh, fuck the rules ...

        Hillary is not violating them, but who would care if she did, outside the purity troll caucus here at DKos?

        The DNC is not the Democratic Party. Dem voters are.

        by al Fubar on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:16:38 AM PDT

•  Well I voted

  So Obama has at least one vote... and as far as I can tell: Vote No on 1! (If Charlie Crist is for it, then that must mean it's crap)

  The ironic thing is, had Florida (and Michigan for that matter) waited thier turn according to the party rules the primary would have been a pretty big deal... As is it's nothing. Of course that assumes Clinton wins as expected, which she'll try to spin as a win, but it's not. If Obama comes close, or wins (Big money, big money, no whammies, comeon!) then that makes news. But it's a race for delegates, and Florida has none. You can't change the rules in the middle of the game.

  by gregonthe28th on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:31:32 AM PDT

  •  Recc'd...

    ...for voting NO on Amendment 1.

    It's a crap amendment, and the way the legislature here works, there's no way to overturn it if gets ratified and ends being a poison pill.  You'd have to wait 7 years to bring it up again.  That's something our state can't take.

    by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:41:58 AM PDT

•  If Obama does well, I predict:

  All of a sudden the Florida primary will be a very, very big deal here!

  by Jim J on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:33:19 AM PDT

  •  I will agree with you

    And add that the BHO will then be asking that the delegates be seated.

    by J Rae on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:57:30 AM PDT

  •  it would be a big surprise

    but the delegates still wouldn't count.

    by a wolf raised by boys on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:20:32 AM PDT

•  Before South Carolina

  MSNBC ran ads for their upcoming coverage, calling SC the "last primary before Super Tuesday."

  The decision has already been made not to cover the Florida primary seriously, except on the GOP side.  We'll see the Democratic results in the ticker, and the talking heads will mention Hillary's win in passing, but everyone knows McCain vs. Romney is the real story.

  by a wolf raised by boys on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:45:59 AM PDT

•  True.

  Watched MSNBC this morning, and there's minimum coverage on the D side of the FL primary.

  Perusing the Orlando Sentinel reveals that there's not a lot of coverage on the Democratic side either.  It seems the MSM is making it a non-story as to who the victor is (which will be Clinton, with her built in support here).

  by cybrestrike on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:59:36 AM PDT