Hillary's Hurdle, Part II: Obama's Obstacle

I posted a diary a few days ago discussing the potential issues facing the Clinton campaign.

This diary updates that diary and discusses the obstacles facing Obama.

Since the South Carolina primary four relevant events have happened; two favor Obama and two favor Clinton.

1.  First, Caroline Kennedy wrote a powerful endorsement of Obama explicitly comparing him with JFK. This was followed by Senator Kennedy endorsing Obama.  Most endorsements don't mean that much.  This may be an exception with three groups: (i) older voters; (ii) Irish/Catholic voters; (iii) voters from Massachusetts.  It has also been suggested that the Kennedy ensorsement will help with Latino voters, but I'm a bit more skeptical of that.  

2.  Note that the Clinton campaign displayed its usual, excellent tactical skills in countering the favorable Obama endorsement, by highlighting the previous endorsement of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and having her write an op-ed published in the LA Times.  Good tactical response, but not really enough to blunt the edge Obama gained.

3.  The third event is the "snub" of Clinton by Obama.  Whatever the reality, Clinton gains from this by (i) creating cracks in the impression that Obama is a mentsch and (ii) braking his momentum.

4.  The fourth event is the Florida primary.  While not relevant in terms of delegate count, it will somewhat blunt the momentum from South Carolina and enable Hillary to point out that she can win a state by a large margin.  

5. Overall, Obama has continued to gain traction over the last couple of days. However, given how far behind he was to start with, it remains hard to see how he draws even with Clinton.  

6.  Looking at the state of the race currently, it appears that Clinton leads Obama by 74 delegates, a decline of 4 from a few days ago.  Logically, this lead should continue to decline somewhat between now and Super Tuesday, but it is hard to see how it drops below 65.

7.  I have seen recent polls for only a few states.  In general, they show that Clinton remains in the lead. Obama, has however, narrowed these leads somewhat.

8.  The next step is really speculative, but here goes.

9.  States where Obama is likely to have an advantage:

Alabama -  52 pledged delegates; demographics somewhat like SC; assume Obama + 10
Connecticutt- 48 pledged delegates; relatively more affluent state; also more affected by the Kennedy endorsement; assume Obama + 10
Georgia - 87 pledged delegates; similar to the assumptions about Alabama; assume Obama +15
Illinois - 153 pledged delegates; home state; Obama +100
Massachusetts - 93 pledged delegates; Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick; Obama + 50

Total Obama gain: 175

10.  States where Clinton is likely to have an advantage:

Arkansas - 35 pledged delegates;  Clinton + 20
California - 370 pledged delegates; she's leading; there have been lots of absentee votes; she has lots of the establishment; its hard to see how she doesn't pick up at least a few delegates here;  Clinton + 20
New York - 232 pledged delegates; Obama will do very well in African American district and Manhattan; but the state really does belong to Clinton; Clinton + 150
Oklahoma - 38 pledged delegates;  the polls consistently have shown Obama in third place; this makes it pretty hard to see how the delegates get split evenly between Clinton and Obama; Clinton + 10

Total Clinton gain: + 200

11.  States where there is no reason to believe anyone has an inherent advantage:

Arizona
Alaska
Colorado
Delaware
Idaho
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Dakota
Tennessee
Utah

Although I expect that Clinton will win most of these states, I assume that proportional representation will mean that the delegates are split evenly. This will, however, give Clinton a very significant momentum boost.

12. Also, please note that if she wins states as I describe, she's likely to somewhat increase her lead in super delegates as one safe option for them is to treat themselves as pledged and vote the way their state or district does.  Reasonably, one could assume that she nets another ten delegates or so over Obama, increasing her lead to 100.

13.  My very speculative result has Obama exiting Super Tuesday about 100 delegates behind.  This is not an insurmountable number, but given the momentum that Clinton gains from her victories, where and how will Obama make up this deficit?

•  Tips, Trolls and Further Analysis

  That last would be especially welcomed, since there is a lot of speculation in this diary.

  by Justanothernyer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:52:24 PM PDT

  •  Half the delegates remain in play post Feb05

    In answer to the wrap-up question in #13 - the delegates can be made up from the remaining 22 states left to vote.  There are enough delegates to make up the difference, if your estimate of ~100 is correct.

    Someboy put up a very nice diary a day or two ago with a good graphical breakdown.  I cannot remember the author's name though.

    by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:25:21 PM PDT

    •  I saw the graphic

      which was very nicely done.

      That number of delegates could certainly be made up; in order to do this however, Obama would need to win a number of states by large margins, while ensuring that Clinton does not.  I would be curious where you see him getting these votes?

      by Justanothernyer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:28:50 PM PDT

      •  Oh thank God

        Now I don't have to search fora link. :)

        As for the rest, I just typed up a larger comment below.

        by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:43:47 PM PDT

•  The states after Super Tuesday

  Favor Obama, at least the ones in February.  Super Tuesday is Hillary's last stand.

  by Greuben on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:55:05 PM PDT

•  The following week

  is MD, DC, and VA (I believe), where Obama will be strong. That could possibly bring momentum back in his direction (if he underperforms on Feb 5).

  by itskevin on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:56:57 PM PDT

  •  Yes, I would

    expect him to win those; but they total about 170 delegates; given the proportional representation rules, I would think this will net him at most about 25 to 30 delegates.

    by Justanothernyer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:02:00 PM PDT

•  Math's not a strong point for me

  Basically, I believe the theory was that in aggregate, the super Tuesday states were better for Clinton than Obama. Really hard to see how Obama could "win" Super Tuesday, but he needs to "beat expectations" (whatever that means. I mean, I think we ought to set expectations to Clinton 110%, Obama negative 5%, Edward negative 5% or something, if that's the case.)

  If he wins a few states (beyond Illinois) and generally "beats expectations", many of the remaining states could potentially be strong for him.

  On a more visceral level, there's something very interesting in the way that whenever Obama is most triumphant, he seems to be most likely to careen into disaster. People seem to like to kick Obama when he goes into "messiah" mode just to bring him back down to earth. I think Obama needs to put his head down, be extra cordial to the other candidates (bring Hillary a valentine or something), and work hard. (although perhaps another Oprah sighting wouldn't hurt)

  by JMS on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:01:29 PM PDT

•  I'm not sure about your lineup of states.

  1. I think you're right about Hispanics.

  2. No one gives a rat's ass about Bobby's kids.  This wouldn't even have worked from JFK Jr.  Caroline is a special case unto herself.

  3. No one cares.

  4. The media is by and large treating it like a joke.

  5. Very true.  Although if that Caroline ad can't put him over, nothing can.

  6. 'kay.

  7. True, but Teddy is a game-changer.

  9-11.  These are pretty off base.  MA and CT have polled very strongly for Clinton.  AL is actually not polling well for Obama so far.  He is ahead in AK, KS, ID and CO.

  12. Maybe.

  13. We'll see.

  by slaney black on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:11:45 PM PDT

  •  I would

    be surprised if MA post teddy is polling strong for Clinton;  in CT the last pre-Kennedy poll had them tied. If Teddy is a game changer anywhere, it would seem to be in MA.

    The last Alabama poll I saw was a week old, though it did have her up 15.  (And, by that logic she would get many of the states I've put as even).

    The Colorado poll I saw had Obama at +2; not enough to change the delegate split.

    I haven't seen a single poll for AK, KS or ID.  I'd be curious if you had links for those?

    by Justanothernyer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:23:16 PM PDT

    •  More math

      Vote distribution is very significant as we are seeing.  Many delegates are awarded based on the vote in every congressional district.  

      Current political models are predicting this race quite poorly.  They are using demographic mixes that are being upset by the unusually large participation of young voters, and by large numbers of independants and Republicans voting Democratic in the primaries.  

      In addition they are also poorly modeling the delegate distributions.  Sen Obama's advantage lies in broad-based unifor support.  He is polling strong everywhere so he is getting a slice of all the hundreds of little pies.  Sen Clinton is strong where establishment Democrats are strong but not so much in other regions.  She either gets a lot of pie from an area or none at all.

      Sen Obama is trying a new strategy by contending for all the little pies.  Usually this does not work but it's adifferent world in the net-tastic 21st Century, right?  So the past political models are a bit off in predicting this year's race.

      And now toss in the wildcard:  Sen Edwards.  Where ever he gets 15%, he gets some delegates.  But thanks to round-off error he will probably get "more" delegates than "votes".  For example, if 4 delegates are at stake, and Edwards gets 18% of the vote, then Sen Edwards will win 1 of the 4 delegates.  That means 18% of the vote is rewarded with 25% of the delegates.  This reduces the number of delgates to split between the front-runners.

      Add it all together and the total delegate split from Feb 5th might well be pretty close to dead even - and that is if Sen Clinton cntinues to lead in the national polls.  If Sen Obama manages to get close in the (flawed) national polls, then look for him to actualy win the delegate contest on Feb 5th.

      In other owrds ... popcorn time bigtime!

      by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:41:50 PM PDT

    •  CT poll - holy jeez

      tied up even before Teddy.

      This could be some real $#!7 going down next week.

      by slaney black on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:51:27 PM PDT

•  Buyers rigermortous sways votes late

  by Steven R on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:17:53 PM PDT

•  IMO who wins what state's will be

  more important as a momentum indicator than delegate counts.  If next Tuesday is HRC wins, HRC wins, etc., etc, BHO wins his home state, a couple of southern (read 'black') states and Teddy's, then he has a major uphil climb facing him in the media regardless of if the delegate count is close but HRC leads.  I just keep thinking about voters looking at the 'Race so far' articles with maps colored 3 to 1 in HRCs favor.  Nobody will care about DC.  Md and Va could very well split, but frankly its too earlier to predict those (Va Ds are more conservative and Md Ds are more 'machine', but a large % in each will be from the DC suburbs and I have no idea who they will favor.)

  OTOH if BHO can keep next week's map from being too HRC'd he is sitting good.  If he wins Cali, its Katie bar the door.

  by chrismorgan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:53:09 PM PDT