Surprising Turnout for Dems in FL

I am the first to declare the Florida primary "meaningless." I say that in the basic and definitional sense: the votes will NOT lead to the seating of delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. The votes, thus, have no tangible significance in the selection of a Presidential candidate. Yet, voter turnout on the Democratic side was shockingly high for a veritable "beauty contest." Something is going on.

Most Florida Democratic voters knew that their votes would lead to no delegates at the convention, and all of the candidates respected the DNC decision by refusing to campaign there. ALL of the buzz in Florida of late has been on the Republican side. A vigorously contested election, including Rudy even, drew all of the political attention in Florida the last few months.  One wouldn't be hardpressed to imagine that Democratic turnout would be puny - both because the result doesn't matter and perhaps, as a protest against the whole fiasco. I would have though GOP turnout would at least double that of the Democrats, even though Democrats have a slight voter registration edge.

Yet, the opposite has happened. With 95% of votes in at this time, Republican votes totaled 1,879,516 and Democrats recorded 1,652,241 votes in what can only be described as a beauty contest based on national name recognition.

No GOTV. No local ads. No campaigning on the Democratic side at all. Zilch. And yet, 47% of all votes cast today were for the Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, all the GOTV operations were in full swing, including Rudy's desperate gambit, full pandering to Cuban exiles, the Governor's earth-shattering endorsement, massive TV ad buys, major rallies, a debate, etc - and for a contest that many assume will establish the true frontrunner in the nomination battle. And it only produced 53% of all voters.

Alas, the real story again may be the enthusiasm gap. I think Hillary supporters are wrong to tout her "victory" there because of the obvious media manipulation. But the larger point about 1.6 million Democrats showing up to the polls is a legitimate one...not because it means the delegates should be seated, but because of what it says about basic enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

In the end, Republican turnout should have been 70% of the total. Instead, it was only 53%. That's the real story out of Florida tonight.

•  And that enthusiasm

  And independents were with Hillary tonight.

  by palpatine316 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:43:59 PM PDT

  •  Independents?

    Florida has a closed primary.  Only democrats can vote.

    by smash artist on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:45:09 PM PDT

    •  Looking at exit poll reporting

      Probably refers to late deciders. I'll see if I can get clarification.

      by palpatine316 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:46:04 PM PDT

      •  Per CNN exit polls

        It's called independents 40 for HRC, 30 for BO.

        by palpatine316 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:52:23 PM PDT

        •  That'd lead me to believe the turnout was heavily

          skewed, because it doesn't reflect what all the other primaries showed.

          That, or Hillary magically touched electorates she hadn't prior.

          Economic Left/Right: -8.50

          Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.51

          by MrrarA on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:53:41 PM PDT

          •  40% 60 yrs old or over, 61% women

            FL was a Sen Clinton Core Supporter Votefest.

            It's not the same sort of corss-section we've seen in the contested primary states.

            Get yer popcorn ready for Feb05!

            by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:55:17 PM PDT

    •  "independents"= november voters.

      because florida doesn't allow anyone but dems and reps to vote in primary elections, many "democrats" and "republicans" by registration aren't "democrats" and "republicans" by ideology. some just like to vote in the other party's primary.

      by campskunk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:48:17 PM PDT

  •  Enthusiasm May Wane

    As noted below, there was a significant property tax measure on the ballot that contributed to the Democratic turnout. Moreover, totally excluding Florida from the nominating process will go a long way from toward dampening any enthusiasm that may exist today. November is likely to be a disaster if Florida delegates aren't seated.

    by Realist2004 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:11:20 PM PDT

  •  No they weren't turning out for Clinton

    40% of the turnout was over 60%.  That's the Old Timer Democrat voting block that dominated teh Party pre-Edwards, pre-Obama.  

    A genunie enthusiastic Florida primary would have tuned out three million voters in the Democratic Primary.  1.6 ain't nothin compared to IA, NH, SC, NV voter participation.  Didn' even beat the GOP turnout.  Meh.

    That is not the same demographic that has been voting in the contested prmaries.  FL is an abberation.

    by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:52:48 PM PDT

•  you can't keep the people down.

  we will not be disenfranchised.

  by campskunk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:46:28 PM PDT

  •  She's

    got so much ammo for the debate.

    She could line up a bunch of Floridian Latinos and have them say:

    Obama wants our vote thrown in a dumpster. Obama doesn't care about our vote.

    And say it in Spanish.

    by Salo on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:07:43 PM PDT

    •  Obama should support seating the Fla. delegates

      I think that, given that most Edwards votes in Florida probably will go to Obama, he really ought to support seating the Florida delegates.

      Otherwise, say he wins the nomination by shutting out the Florida delegates. How does he win in Florida and Michigan in the general election? Why would he want to go into the general election knowing he'd intentionally done his best to throw away the Florida vote?

      by sclminc on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:30:59 PM PDT

      •  why?

        because he doesn't want the voice of the people to be heard. it's as simple as that.

        by campskunk on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 06:05:40 AM PDT

        •  HRC not anti-Christ; O. not anti-Christ

          Seriously: I don't think Obama has any serious interest in disenfranchising Florida voters, and I just think that, outside of Florida, not many people were thinking about all of this in a clear way.

          Something that sounded sort of OK a month ago now sounds absurd once you see the reality of 1.6 million people casting votes that might not be counted.

          But I think Obama is just opposing the seating of the Florida delegates for short-term tactical reasons that he hasn't thought out all that well. If he just remembers that the Edwards delegates will probably support him, anyway, he has no serious tactical reason  to be a jerk about this.

          If he is just sticking up for Howard Dean for reasons of principle, then I think the thing to do is to continue to oppose seating the Florida delegates, but to emphasize that he will take their vote into account if it turns out to be the deciding factor.

          by sclminc on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:06:19 AM PDT

•  Well HRC kinda campaigned in FL and feigned

  Indignation as to WHY THE FL VOICES ARE NOT EING HEARD!
  YUCK

  What a conniving lying lowball politician she is

  by wuod kwatch on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:49:38 PM PDT

  •  Sorry, Obama did the only campaigning in...

    ...FLA.

    He broadcast national TV ads into the state for a week before tonights election.

    Hillary showed up AFTER THE POLLS CLOSED to pick up her award.

    Do you think  nobody in FLA owns a TV?   They are very involved in this race and they broke strong for Hillary Rodham Clinton, POTUS '09

    by neoeconomist on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:52:49 PM PDT

    •  But neither did much

      Sure, both campaigns clandestinely campaigned in Florida, with a national cable ad here or there. But it was nothing like a real campaign. For all intents and purposes it was total silence on the Democratic side. One could easily have assumed that Florida was not even hosting a Democratic primary. And yet, 47% of all voters participated on the Democratic side. It's amazing.

      by Elrod on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:56:10 PM PDT

      •  250,000 vote defecit

        with a huge turn out and if Edwards were not in it she'd have half his vote.

        It's over.

        by Salo on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:05:20 PM PDT

•  BREAKING:- IN FL, OBAMA SHOWS LATE MOMENTUM !!!!

  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  The dude NEVER REALLY did campaign there, he is new to the state, and YET he nabs what 700,000 votes?? when all is said and done.

  OBAMA HAS ROOM TO GROW.

  The lying conniving____________ has peaked.

  by wuod kwatch on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:56:44 PM PDT

  •  he's fuct

    the numbers are crushing. He wouldn't have had the time to campaign there.

    by Salo on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:04:16 PM PDT

  •  Stuff in a sock in it, ok?

    by mrogers2007 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:09:33 PM PDT

•  Thank You for an Insightful Diary

  This is what I've been thinking all along. Democratic turnout during these early primaries has been HUGE! Contrary to all the nay-sayers, this IS significant for November. Democrats are energized and are fed up with the R-Product. Enough is enough!

  by kefauver on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:57:45 PM PDT

•  There was a very important property tax...

  .. referendum on the ballot also. A lot of orgs like unions, etc. spent a lot of money getting out the vote for that.

  And there were a huge number of absentee ballots cast, CNN said over 400,000, so take that one as you will. But a significant part of the turnout was driven by the referendum.

  by highacidity on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:01:33 PM PDT

  •  Yes, Largely a Florida Issue Turnout nt

    by Gooserock on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:05:30 PM PDT

•  Relief from Property Taxes is what Brought out

  people.

  An Amendment that addressed the property tax system that was making Florida increasingly unaffordable was what brought out the voters.

  For good or bad the amendment that doubled the homestead exemption and made the "Save Our Homes" 3% cap portable was what brought out the voters.

  Dukakis could have been the only one on the ballot and voters would still have turned out in big numbers.

  Of course, this is just my opinion.

  by Mr SeeMore on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:07:24 PM PDT

•  A lot of dem voters didn't realize

  that they're not getting delegates.  This was covered on CNN.

  It is a rather obscure procedural issue, and the average voter may simply assume that if an election is held, then his/her vote will count.   Kind of strange that the state would go through the motions, and the expense, of holding an election if the votes aren't counting.

  I wouldn't make too much of the turn-out.   Several folks on this forum tried doing that after SC (claiming the Dem turnout was somehow predictive of how things would go in the general) but Republicans are VERY GOOD at getting out the vote when it counts:   and when it counts is in the general..

  by mrogers2007 on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:08:32 PM PDT

•  Property Tax Amendment on ballot tends

  to get property owners there

  It passed. People like property tax cuts

  by joynow on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:24:00 PM PDT

•  But put it in context

  In every contested primary, the Democratic participation out-stripped GOP voter participation in the same state.  Only in FL and MI did theGOP draw more voters than the Democratic contest.

  IOW, the FLresults should not be overplayed as an example of Democratic enthusiasm.  There is some truth to what you say - look at the numbers without a real contest - but that ignores the larger message.

  Imagine the FLorida turnout had the state leaders scheduled their primary for Feb 12th instead.  1.6 million?  How about three million instead!

  My Wisconsin primary suddenly seems like it will get some attention.  Booyah!

  The FL Democratic Party leaders should be spending a lot of sleepless nights.

  by Quicklund on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:49:15 PM PDT

•  I agree with almost everything you've said

  ... except this:

  I am the first to declare the Florida primary "meaningless." I say that in the basic and definitional sense: the votes will NOT lead to the seating of delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

  The delegates will be seated, and they will vote.  Count on it.

  It's up to the putative nominee to seat them, so it's gonna happen.  No way the party can afford to alienate Florida (and Michigan) further.

  by Sinfonian on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 04:53:04 AM PDT