Will Kenya count the votes?

I spent the morning listening to gunfire.

ODM and Raila wanted to hold a demonstration in Uhuru Park. They were blocked by a massive police force. They will try again tomorrow.

The guns were apparently fired in the air, and no one killed directly; there was a man electrocuted on Thika Road by a falling cable. It was attributed to a police bullet severing the cable, as no other explanation seemed as likely.

All the news and government statements are calling for "peace" and "negotiation". (Don't get me started on Rice's "spirit of compromise".) Kibaki has had himself sworn in. Meanwhile, the chairman of the Electoral Commission (ECK) has publicly admitted that he does not know who won.

So how about counting the votes?

People in Kenya voted at 22,000+ polling places. For each location and each race, a Form 16/16A was prepared with the totals for President, MP for that Constituency, and local counsellor elections.

Each voter gets 3 ballots, of different colors. Each is placed in a separate box. You can't vote for President, and walk away with the other two ballots in your pocket.

Spoiled ballots are rare, blanks are unheard of, everyone knows the candidates, and votes all 3.

The form 16's are then taken to the ECK in Nairobi by the Returning Officer for the Constituency (MP seat), there are 210 of them.

This is what they took 2 extra days to count. Note that Kibaki appointed 19 of the 22 ECK officers. The chairman was re-appointed. The Parliamentary results were reported without trouble (except Garsen and Starehe, which had dramatic local problems). Then the trouble started. Someone was changing the returns. (BBC has a copy of the Form 16 for Nakuru Town, which was blatantly modified by cramming in a zero to change 78 Kibaki votes to 780!)

By law, the Form 16s are open to public inspection. There have been suggestions of an "independent commission" to re-tally them, but you know how long that will take, and what will happen.

Why not make copies for the parties (PNU, ODM, ODM-K)? And the news agencies (KTN/Standard, NTV/Nation, Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN)? Why not scan all of them and put them on the net? Not just the Presidential forms, but the corresponding Parliamentary vote forms. So all 44,000+. Remember what I said above? The Presidential vote turnout at a polling station is identical to the Parliamentary turnout.

The people modifying the return forms for the Presidential forgot to make corresponding numerical changes to the Parliamentary forms.

Nailed.

Everyone in Kenya knows that Raila won. The violence will cease when the votes are counted and reported. Not by ECK, or an independent commission, but by all the news agencies, parties, people adding it up for themselves and arriving at the same results.

We all saw a man staggering, being beaten by the police for being out on the road outside Kibera. He turned his face to the camera, and said "from Kibera no food no water no electricity since 3 days" then turned away and staggered onwards. That was two days ago.

No water.

•  kufuor and kabbah just arrived, yesterday

  so, i'm hoping they can mediate something. they seem to be the best chance to stop this from getting worse.

  by Turkana on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:44:29 PM PDT

•  Thank you for the information about the voting

  process. It does seem, though, the longer the recount is delayed, the more possibility there is for altering ballots to match.

  It would seem as in any such case that time is of the essence in getting the information.

  Do the form 16s all stay in Nairobi, or do they return to their parliamentary districts for verification (or is there verification)?

  by vox humana on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:46:52 PM PDT

  •  they stay in Nairobi

    And since -- so far -- the individual polling place returns have not been made public, there has been little opportunity for people to stand up and say that isn't what we reported.

    Even given that, more than one Returning Officer has complained.

    One of them locked himself in a toilet for 7 hours last Friday (day after voting). Wonder who was pressuring him? We don't know.

    by Robert Ullmann on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:58:36 PM PDT

•  apparently I should comment to collect mojo

  I don't care about that ... please rec (not that it will break through Iowa ;-) and add any news links you think would be useful; we've finally made lede on Al Jazeera and are getting some cover on BBC and CNN. Thanks!

  by Robert Ullmann on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 04:48:48 PM PDT

  •  I did a search on your 2nd sentence and got...

    a script from Reuters.

    Odinga said he will not be intimidated "by the prospects of arrest
    prosecution or detention."  
       "Democracy is expensive," he said, adding "We are
    prepared to pay the ultimate price to liberate this country from the shackles of a cabal of dictators who have no respect or regard for the rights of the people of this country."

    Doesn't sound like there will be any compromise.

    by Clive all hat no horse Rodeo on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:18:33 PM PDT

  •  Two Economist magazine articles:

    So it is easy to be angry, as well as gloomy, about African leaders' continual betrayal of the democratic values they say they hold so dear. And all the more so in the case of Kenya, which has a strong tradition of holding elections, a vibrant political culture, a relatively free press and a sophisticated economy. Given all these advantages, as we wrote before the election, Kenya had an opportunity to "set an example" to Africa and hold free and fair elections. But the country blew it.

    Or, more precisely, the political elite blew it. A small cabal of politicians almost certainly stole the result by fraud (see article). In the parliamentary vote, President Mwai Kibaki's ruling party was routed. Yet in the presidential vote Mr Kibaki emerged victorious at the last moment and had himself sworn in only a few minutes later, forestalling pleas from all sides—even from the head of the election commission he himself had appointed—for a pause to investigate mounting claims of malpractice. The report of the European observers was unusually strong in its condemnation of the count.

    (cite: A very African coup. Economist. Jan 3 2008)
    

    
    THE decision to return Kenya's 76-year-old incumbent president, Mwai Kibaki, to office was not made by the Kenyan people but by a small group of hardline leaders from Mr Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe. They made up their minds before the result was announced, perhaps even before the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, had opened up a lead in early returns from the December 27th election. It was a civil coup.

    The planning was meticulous. All that was needed were the extra votes to squeak past Mr Odinga in what had been among the most closely contested elections Africa had ever seen. That was why returns from Central Province, Mr Kibaki's fiercely loyal Kikuyu heartland, were inexplicably held back. It was why, in some constituencies, a large number of voters seemed mysteriously to vote only in the presidential race and ignore the parliamentary ballot—despite waiting hours in the blazing sun. But the real damage was done in Nairobi, by simply crossing out the number of votes as announced in the constituency and scribbling in a higher number. Election monitors were turned away while the tallying went on. Monitors from the European Union saw tens of thousands of votes pinched in this way.

    (cite: Twilight robbery, daylight murder. Economist. Jan 3 2008)

    by opendna on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:52:20 PM PDT

    •  Can't we be greatful that we

      provided them with a basic model?

      by vox humana on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:04:51 PM PDT

  •  At least TWO articles on Gulf News

    http://www.gulfnews.com/

    by deMemedeMedia on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:58:18 PM PDT

    •  Good link here to find World News...click on

      country [or state in USA] for printed news.

      http://www.world-newspapers.com/

      Sri Lanka is boiling also. There was a post yesterday, but no mention of the Tamil Tigers as "Pirates" that also effects shipments of needed supplies to the Horn, etc.

      by deMemedeMedia on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 06:09:29 PM PDT

•  Glad to see a diary about an actual issue.

  Fraud and violence in the Kenyan election is an issue.

  A candidate's hopeful rhetoric is not.

  I really hope we can get away from the rhetoric rec list we have right now, and move towards one of substance.

  Thanks for keeping us informed.

  by otheruser on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:01:43 PM PDT

  •  I rec'd this diary for nostalgic reasons.

    It doesn't seem that long ago that a diary like this would get a pimp on the front page, if not the Recommended list.

    by opendna on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:42:37 PM PDT

•  Their electoral system sounds quite robust

  with a better paper trail than most of our states. But obviously no balloting system is proof against open criminality.

  In the Ukraine, popular outrage actually brought justice.  Can this occur in Kenya?  My assumption was no, but this diary makes me wonder.

  by lgmcp on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:07:02 PM PDT

•  Thank you for blogging on important news

  I am really tired of hearing about pigs feeding at the trough in middle America. Many diarists on this site decry the "attention" given to Iowa and NH only to feed in to it.

  And another thank you for avoiding the "its a tribal thing". The US media and to some extent the BBC have pushed this angle. It is simply not true and those few who picked up on this in Kenya did so for their own political purposes , e.g. its genocide.

  by ThanxAl on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:11:57 PM PDT

  •  it is tribal

    Kibaki is Kikuyu, the largest and politically most powerful tribe. Raila is Luo.

    The vote is polarized by that, Central Province, essentially all Kikuyu, voted 99.9 to 0.1 percent for Kibaki, surprising no one. Seriously. One result I remember was 36,266 Kibaki, 70 Raila. For real.

    Likewise in Nyanza, one return was 28,700 Raila, 75 Kibaki. (numbers from memory, and I don't recall the names of the districts, but they are exemplars)

    So it is tribal, quite seriously. However, you are correct that making this the "spin" on the story is highly misleading unless the story goes into serious depth; and is one reason I stuck to the point without touching on this. Thank you.

    by Robert Ullmann on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:31:54 PM PDT

    •  Actually, Minor Tribes Who Are Suspected

      of not voting for Raila have been driven out of some regions, not just the Kikuyu.

      I have many friends from Kenya, and I get the story from all sides, but unfortunately, I think your diary and most of the international press is really falling into a habit of talking about these stories from a same old script, not from real knowledge of the dynamics, including the political dynamics from the local history and new dynamics caused by the War on Terror, which have particularly factionalized Kenya in the context of religion and region.  

      The people at the center of the current government are not all Kikuyu, and the current group came back to power only in the last election, after 20 plus years with Moi, who was from the Rift Valley and perpetrated tribal clashes as a matter of policy against the Kikuyu for years.  And the Kikuyu's were out of favor for most of the last 20+ years previous to Kibaki, almost as a matter of British policy, though U.S. was a very slight mitigant, but not much.  The U.S. supported Moi too.  Raila helped the current government come to power, but he thought he would be given a special position made just for him, as Prime Minister, but many of the other tribes and his own tribe fear Odinga.  And quite honestly, those kinds of back room deals are not very democratic either.  Raila is really known to be quite a reckless person to the educated in Kenya, beyond his own community, and he has admitted to planning a previous coup d'etat that failed and killed at least 1500 Kenyans.  He's not known to be non-violent.

      In this current election, Raila's people made serious efforts to keep alternative candidates and parties off of the ballot before the election.  Not just political efforts, but some say through intimidation.  Unlike the United States, Kenya is a parliamentary system, and they don't just have two parties. But not all of those persons would have backed Raila, because many actually fear that he is quite ruthless.  Even members of his own community, who are educated.  But the ODM intimidated other parties and candidates from being on the ballot.

      In addition, despite many legal purchases of land, there are many politicians who promise to poor people in Kenya, that they will simply take the land and reallocate it, ala Mugabe and Zimbabwe.  Raila was making similar promises during the campaign, and this has many of those who own any property or businesses in Kenya, quite spooked.  But if they are not Kikuyu, they won't speak up out of fear of Raila's people.  This does not mean that the people in the street are not sincerely enthused about Odinga, nor does it mean he did not win the election, but the people in power may not be the villains they are being made out to be entirely.  They may just simply be wanting to protect their country from falling into the chaos that has befallen other countries.  Unfortunately, they are also colored by the history of the country, and the Luos have had other, very reasonable leaders, who were not elected, and some who were killed, not just by a Kikuyu elite, but also by Moi.  So they are understandably frustrated to have "their time to eat."

      Be aware also, that before the election, it was reported in local media

      Were there any warning signs of the violence?
      Weeks before the presidential and parliamentary elections, the local media reported mass purchases of pangas, or machetes, from supermarkets. Some reports suggested thousands had been bought. It was unclear who was buying them, but analysts said some groups were preparing for trouble.

      There were few to no reports, in my count, of marauding Kikuyu or government backed gangs with machetes hacking other tribes in the news.  The government stopped the media to keep the stories of these attacks off the air, to prevent raising sentiment beyond a controllable point, they have not generally, previous to this controlled the media.  But a country like Kenya is a young democracy, and I think they prudently wanted to restrain reporting that could whip people into doing things that might be monstrous.  Likewise, they were concerned that sms messages were being used by gangs to coordinate violence, but the western media made their efforts to manage that - seem like the desperat act of an old dictatorship rather than a really admirable administration that seems to have given in to panic in these last weeks.

      So many Kenyans were alarmed.  There was, despite the British and European reporting to the contrary, much intimidation even in Nairobi.  My friend, who is Kikuyu told of a young man in a bar, who was with his friends when Raila's group came in.  His friends left, but the young man felt he did not have to leave, even if he was not a Raila supporter.  He was beaten up and dragged behind a car.  This was previous to the election.

      So this thing is very tribal, potentially very violent, and my personal feeling is the international effort should be toward reconcilliation and national unity for Kenya, perhaps even with alternative leaders from the different tribes, rather than forcing a resolution. Until this time, the current government's record on Human Rights was the best probably in Kenya's entire history, and was quite good generally.  If either side now gets power, it seems unlikely that those gains will continue.

      Also, be aware of this. Under Kibaki, for the first time in Kenya's history, they do not require foreign aid to maintain the government and primary education is now free.  The Brits do not like this.  Their influence was seriously waining in this most recent error, whereas it was quite substantial under Moi.  Moi was Britain's man.  Kibaki is Kikuyu, and the Kikuyu drove the british out.  They had one leader, Kenyatta, and then most recently Kibaki. But they have certainly not ruled Kenya and been it's most politically powerful tribe in recent times.  This is more myth than reality, though it is often repeated by a media that rarely delves very deep, but looks to old stories to repeat a script to facilitate quick and "easy" understanding.

      It may very well be that Raila is just a much more skilled politician than Kibaki, but it also may be that many in the western media are jumping to conclusions based on ideas and assumptions that are not particularly applicable or complete.  That does not justify rigging of elections, but neither should we justify ethnic cleansing or thuggery when all of Kenya's politicians and it's history, before this time, has generally embraced lawful action to get free elections and reform.  Kibaki's government had many people who had been very important to the restoration of democracy, and I'm sure they are going to be an important force for reigning him in, if the outside world approaches the circumstances of Kenya with a complete understanding of the local sensitivies and fears.  Raila's people may want their time to eat, but many other Kenyans want to live in a country with a chance to prosper and remain democratic, even after this disasterous election.

      It is my impression, that a new election, one in which all the parties of Kenya, and duly locally elected party members (not hand selected ones in Raila's party) can sit for office - would be a preferred outcome for the Kenyans I know.  The local vote count in Raila's province was also improbable, according to the EU report.  So people I've talked to want to move past that, to something with observers and much more transparency for all parties and candidacies.

      by politedem on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:57:07 AM PDT

      •  In the 1992 election

        I was home in Nairobi on christmas break during the first elections.  I lived in Kenya from 1979 to 1990 and my mom stayed until 1997.  The house we lived in was just over a hill from Kibera, and the primary school I attended was literally on the edge of Mathare. Kenyans are generally peace loving peoples and the hope for a good outcome in '92 was palpable.  Everyone I met asked for information on voting and an explanation of how democracy works...That was a proud day for the country, even though we were all very disconcerted when the international observers decided the election was acceptable.  We heard tales of ballot boxes falling off of trucks that had obviously been stuffed and ballots found dumped in the woods. Our guard admitted that he let someone buy his vote for the "Old Man"(Moi) for 100 Shillings. The lead up to that election was also punctuated by violence in the "slum" areas.  It was perpetrated by Moi's "KANU Youth" corps. I think he would have won anyway, because the opposition was split into too many groups.  The business community also came out and voted for Moi...the devil you know and all that.

        I'm not sure if people know what kind of poverty exists in the slums in Kenya (and the rest of the world). These people have little, if anything, to keep them going. The slums and the people who inhabit them are unwanted by the government, as evidenced by attempts to bulldoze the houses and even burn them down. I vividly remember being on the edge of Kibera handing out food and blankets as the houses burned.  I'm not sure if even Raila Odinga can put the genie back in the box.

        It's funny you should mention the coup d'etat. I was there at the time and it was nasty...gunfire all day and night and a curfew.  Many of our asian friends were attacked and a friend of my sister's watched his mom being killed. I guess the violence is always just below the surface and needs something to set it off.

        I'm crying for my adopted country and worrying about all the people I knew....

        by Kifaru1 on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 10:37:29 AM PDT

        •  I was there before the 1992 election

          reading all the local publications and talking to many people.  I remember it well.  I lived there for a few years, near Nairobi.  I would not be surprised if some of the current perpetrators of the current violence are not the adult Kanu youth.  I even suspect that some of the violence in the Rift Valley, by Moi's tribe, is orchestrated to make the Luo and the Kikuyu destroy each other.  Politics in Kenya is that machiavellian.

          by politedem on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:56:43 AM PDT

•  Please keep up your coverage

  Having recently been to Tanzania, Kenya is seen as a model for progress. I'm deeply concerned about events there. Thank you, keep safe, and try to give as many sides of the story as you are able.

  by the fan man on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:26:49 PM PDT

•  Not a full recount

  As I understand it, some of the ballot boxes have been destroyed in the rioting so it will not be possible to do a full recount. On the other hand, the results were declared at a constituency level (Form 16?) and this is what alerted the EU monitors to one fraud. Are there copies of the form 16 posted or kept at constituency level so the two can be compared?

  by Lib Dem FoP on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 05:34:21 PM PDT

•  More links...

  video:
  http://www.cnn.com/...

  http://www.cnn.com/...

  by deMemedeMedia on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:47:24 PM PDT

•  KENYAN BLOGS

  To have a feel of what the Kenyan blogosphere please check out;
  http://www.kenyaunlimited.com/... and my own blog; kenyanjurist.blogspot.com

  My own view as a Kenyan is that this election result and the aftermath is a culmination of many political, social and economic issues that have been simmering beneath the surface for a while.

  by shikomera on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 05:02:26 AM PDT