Does McCain Being the Republican Nominee Change the Dynamic for the Democrats?
Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:21:35 PM PDT
It's now safe to say that McCain has all but wrapped up the Republican nomination. He is also the one Republican running who regularly beats or gets within the margin of error against Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup (he beats Obama too, but by less). McCain, it has to be noted if we're being clear-eyed, is, of the entire Republican field, the one guy that can be competitive outside of the Republican base. He can bring in Independents, he can cross party lines and poach votes from beyond the Republican core. He does better the more open the primary, and his popularity ratings, unlike all the other Republicans, actually rises as the constituency gets less right-wing, relative to other Republican figures at least.
The question is, does that become a factor in your vote?
Where I'm going with this: I hear a lot "any of our candidates will win in November", but I'm not entirely sure that's true. We've seen a lot of Democrats being turned off by the Clinton machine as this race has gotten close; can you imagine how that will play among Independents (and one candidate clearly has more strength outside of the Democratic party than the other)? And McCain is also a guy that creates a lot of disillusionment among the most partisan of Republicans, i.e. might not be able to turn out his base in the regular Rovian way---but those same Republicans he annoys can be moved to the ends of the earth if it means lining up against a Clinton.
What's more, a lot of his weaknesses, it seems to me, play much worse against Obama than Clinton. He reeks of establishment party-lining, but that's a hard charge to make stick coming from Clinton. He's pro-war, but that becomes a matter more of parsing with Clinton than clear difference as with Obama (we'll have to hear an awful lot of hedging about her Senate votes, Lieberman amendment vote, and lack of wedge policy difference in terms of withdraw). He's old, and nobody alive seems to exude youth and vigor and newness as Obama does. He's hopelessly Senatorial, but, whether you love her or hate her, so is Clinton. He's distrusted by the religious (less so with Obama). He doesn't play well in the South (Obama has a shot in some places there). The media love him (they love one Democrat, and love to hate the other). He's seen as changing his positions for the sake of political expediency. He's got problems explaining corporate ties and monied interests but with some mainstream credibility in campaign finance reform that lets him go on the attack against other opponents on that matter. As much as we may hate this kind of rhetoric, he gets a lot of mileage out of talking about "reaching across the aisle". I think, of our two candidates, there's only one that can even neutralize that kind of thing, much less make it an advantage for them, and it will almost surely be an effective tool in a McCain arsenal for the general election (again, whatever you might personally think of it).
In short, one of our candidates seems a lot better positioned to take him on on all of these Achilles heels than the other.
Bit of disclosure, I'm an Obama guy if you can't tell (well actually, at present, I'm a Ron Paul guy, but I will be an Obama guy if he gets the nod, and I'm not even a Democrat). But I've been saying for a long time that the only possible scenario for the Democrats losing this election is if it comes down to Clinton-McCain.
As much of a leading question as this is, I'm honestly interested (I'm just giving my own take upfront):
Given that we now know that McCain will be the nominee, and we also know his strengths/weaknesses and how he matches up against the candidate, does that effect your own calculus in how to win in November, and who the best chance lies with?
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