The mid-primary VP gambit
Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 04:57:54 AM PDT
I've always been fascinated that through the years, no 2nd place Democrat nor Republican challenger has ever tried to get a mid-primary season boost by selecting a VP running mate far in advance of the nominating convention. The potential advantages are obvious, i.e. if the challenger picks a popular VP then he/she gets a voter boost from that selection and he/she gets an extra partner in campaigning as they criss cross the country.
The disadvantages are a little bit more nebulous...
- Does the move smack of desperation?
- Does the move smack of unfair competition relative to the leader?
- Does the move make the challenger look weak?
One problem with answering "yes" on these disadvantages is that we have no data from which to judge this gambit. It's never happened.
What if Obama tried it?
I am curious as to whether Obama is facing a unique situation where he could pull off this gambit with a minimum of disadvantage. The first factor to consider is that Obama is already running against Hillary and Bill. Who is going to have the #2 status in a Hillary Clinton administration?
Yup, that was a rhetorical question.
It's already a 1 against 2 fight. If Obama were to select his running mate right after Super Tuesday, it might not be perceived as an unfair move, it might be perceived as the opposite... a move to level the playing field. Out go the desperation and unfairness arguments.
Would it be perceived as a sign of weakness from Obama? That's the issue which is tough to answer.
But I believe there is a reasonable answer to this question if he were challenged by it. The VP is almost always identified at least 1 week prior to the convention. But if the nominee isn't fully decided by the convention and it only gets resolved at the convention, then wouldn't it be presumptuous for any VP to be selected prior to Denver 2008? Obama could argue that the very nature of the race, the very closeness of the battle, dictates that both candidates select their VP's well ahead of the nomination so that the remaining primary voters and the super delegates can judge the candidates by their selections. Some might buy this argument, others maybe not.
One intriguing possibility would be for Obama to work out a deal with Edwards to be that VP nominee, and then campaign directly together against Hill and Bill for the duration of the primary season.
However, my interest in this gambit stands independent of the actual VP selection made. I would be equally intrigued if Willard Romney chose a running mate in the coming week, or so.
Permalink | 8 comments