Poll: Obama at 52, Clinton 36 in GA

Obama appears to have the big MO on his side at this point, with dramatic leaps in all state polls.  The latest is Georgia.  

Q.2.     If you are voting in the Democratic primary or have voted in early voting, which candidate do you prefer?

Obama
52.0

Clinton
36.0

Obama is dramatically closing the gap in Massachussets, California, and even New York, and now he has done more than close the gap in Georgia.  It's starting to look like February 5 is going to be a very big day for Barack Obama.  

•  Holy crap.

  That's a big jump. He was always leading, but now 16 points?

  Are we starting to see a trend in some of these states (he says, ever so hopefully...)?

  by wmtriallawyer on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:20:11 AM PDT

  •  As for other states...

    The diarist must have mistakenly left out the other Insider Advantage poll from today:

    Tennessee
    Clinton: 59
    Obama: 26

    by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:25:09 AM PDT

    •  That one has really screwy internals

      It has Clinton winning 18-29 year olds 80% to 15%, winning males by 35% (a larger margin than females), winning African-Americans by 2%, etc.

      by Fro on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:34:11 AM PDT

      •  Insider Advantage always has screwy internals

        Sometimes it's poor sampling, sometimes it's other things.  In the Georgia poll, they have Obama with a larger margin among women than men.  I pretty much discarded their SC polls.

        Then again, this could the new dynamic with Edwards out...

        by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:37:22 AM PDT

        •  The Real Story

          Insider Advantage also shows Clinton way ahead in Tennessee and almost every other state, especially the large ones. Once again, Georgia is a state with a large Black vote block that has closed ranks around Obama... From Insider Advantage this morning: On the Democratic side, it looks suspiciously like a racial divide in the South. Barack Obama appears to be headed to an easy win in Georgia, where blacks make up a substantial proportion of Democratic voters. And Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead in Tennessee, where white voters more heavily predominate among Democratic voters.  

          A new InsiderAdvantage survey in Tennessee shows Sen. Hillary Clinton way ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 59% to 26%.

          In the Republican race, Sen. John McCain leads with 33%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 25% and Mitt Romney at 18%.

          by StuHunter on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:48:14 AM PDT

          •  Your "real story" is fictional

            There's no evidence they favor Clinton.

            by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:49:27 AM PDT

            •  You're OTL

              Ummmm ..do you know how to read a poll? My post explicitly quotes what Insider Advantage stated in their poll, which the author of this diary used, but did not post the whole story by the polling organization.. Im sorry if the story isn't what you want to hear, but that won't change the reality of the situation..

              by StuHunter on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:55:45 AM PDT

              •  I totally misread your post

                Sorry.

                by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:57:58 AM PDT

                •  no problem

                  no problem

                  by StuHunter on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:00:07 AM PDT

          •  Answer:

            ...from some comments over at pollster.com:

            The Tennessee Poll asked too many old people, they had just 11% under 30.

            Posted by: Rasmus | January 31, 2008 11:42 AM

            Not only that, but it took its sample over the course of a full week (January 20-26), and so the data it generated is now 5-12 days old. It also undersampled young voters. I've seen some bad polls this year, but this one's gotta be the worst of the bunch.

            Posted by: FlyOnTheWall | January 31, 2008 11:51 AM

            by DC Pol Sci on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:34:29 AM PDT

            •  Who knows with turnout this year

              But in 2004, the Tennessee Dem primary was just 7% 19-29 year olds.

              by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:42:21 AM PDT

      •  Well then it must be a lie.

        by Jim Riggs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:41:34 AM PDT

  •  Not quite always leading

    but he has been since Iowa when he went up by 3.

    Prior to that Hillary had a small lead. She was +7 in December and +13 in October

    But it is amazing to see all these changes.

    by joynow on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 10:34:23 AM PDT

•  This is

  AMAZING. What a huge surprise.

  by christine20 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:21:09 AM PDT

•  Here you go!

  PPP Poll: Obama Leads in Georgia, GOP Race Deadlocked
  A new Public Policy Polling survey in Georgia finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 51% to 41%, in the Democratic presidential race.

  Key findings: Obama gets 73% of the black vote. He trails Clinton 56% to 36% in the white vote, but that keeps it close enough to afford him a solid overall lead. The gender gap in the state is minimal. Obama leads 50% to 42% among women and 53% to 39% with men.

  On the Republican side, it's a very tight race with Mitt Romney at 32%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 31% and Mike Huckabee at 24%.

  by slinkerwink on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:21:18 AM PDT

•  this is some great news

  by RSA TX on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:21:22 AM PDT

•  I'm

  really starting to feel it...

  I think we're gonna do it!

  YES WE CAN

  by zonk on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:22:11 AM PDT

•  The same polling outfit

  Insider Advantage show Obama up by +16% in GA and Clinton up by +33% in TN, after Edwards dropped out.

  Its going both ways it appears, and depends on the state.

  by NickC on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:25:48 AM PDT

•  Here he is: the Dem who can win the south.

  We can't sleep on this.

  by chicago DEM on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:25:53 AM PDT

  •  Clinton consistently polls better than him

    against the GOP in the South.  

    by Partially Impartial on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:33:07 AM PDT

    •  the poster deliberatly

      conflates the primary and general.

      by Salo on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:37:39 AM PDT

      •  what the heck are you talking about?

        If you are voting in the Democratic primary

        What is unclear about this question? If it is a poll of Obama and Clinton, how could it have anything to do with the general?

        by gobacktotexas on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:43:45 AM PDT

        •  this

          Here he is: the Dem who can win the south. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:CaptUnderpants, droogie6655321, ryangoesboom, clambake
          We can't sleep on this.

          Obama will not be competitive with the GOP in teh south. He's Kerry +1 (if that)

          by Salo on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:46:08 AM PDT

          •  yeah

            it's not like he would inspire millions of african americans and young people to register to vote or anything.  

            by gobacktotexas on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:47:25 AM PDT

            •  He won't carry southern states.

              He'll be trounced.

              by Salo on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:51:21 AM PDT

              •  Jimmy Carter disagrees

                "Obama's campaign has been extraordinary and titillating for me and my family," Mr. Carter said. The 83-year-old former president, who left the White House in 1981, compared Mr. Obama's speeches to those of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and said he believed the candidate could carry some southern states if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

                by gobacktotexas on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:54:27 AM PDT

                •  well

                  Carter may be wise in many ways, but he is not an expert in electoral math.

                  Registering and energizing every single African-American voter in the South still does not mean you can carry southern states as long as the electorate is racially polarized. African-Americans are still a minority community and presidential politics has been a tough nut to crack for Democrats in the deep south. The electorate doesn't have to be polarized, but we'd need evidence that Obama is carrying large numbers of white voters in the South, and regrettably that hasn't materialized yet. (25% of whites in the Democratic primary in S.C. doesn't count.)

                  None of this is to discount Obama's strengths or worth as a candidate, but carrying southern states like Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia on the basis of record-breaking African-American turnout is not among them.

                  by brittain33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:53:51 AM PDT

              •  Neither will Clinton

                Republicans hate her with a passion. I don't see Obama carrying a state like Georgia, but I can see him doing better in the midwest and maybe even being competitive in some of the plains states like Kansas. Not saying he'd win Kansas, but I think he could put it on the radar screen.

                by democrattotheend on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:56:29 AM PDT

                •  Clinton would pick up Arkansas.

                  by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:58:15 AM PDT

              •  Not likely but Obama

                would be a much stronger candidate for down ticket Democrats by galvanizing the African American turnout.

                by mr crabby on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 10:00:08 AM PDT

  •  in the primaries.

    He will get nowhere in the general election.

    by Salo on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:37:04 AM PDT

    •  He Got

      More primary votes than McCain and Huckeabee combined in South Carolina. More than Bush got in the 2000 primary.

      Turnout will be king this year and without Clinton on the ballot the Repubs will have turnout problems.

      by pletzs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:51:50 AM PDT

  •  Uh, there is a difference between winning a

    primary and winning a general election. Clinton won Nevada, does that mean she will win Nevada in the GE and Obama won't? Clinton is going to win Oklahoma by a fairly winde margin. Does that mean she will win Oklahoma in the general election? Clinton did better in Florida then Obama did. Does that mean she will win Florida and he won't?

    Clinton is the candidate who is sure to win at least one Southern State. Arkansas.

    by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:42:37 AM PDT

•  Geez I want Romney

  to win another few primaries.  I want McCain's campaign bankrupted.  I want a brokered GOP convention.  I want the Dem nominee to go up against Willard Milton, the nation's first clip-art candidate.

  by jazzmaniac on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:30:26 AM PDT

•  This is clearly a good showing for Obama, but

  the fact that Hillary still gets a quarter of the African American vote at this stage is, IMO, quite impressive considering the devastating media coverage of the racial "issue."

  by Jim J on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:35:43 AM PDT

  •  How you can say that with a straight face

    Hillary Clinton has been known forever and was first lady to the most popular president among African Americans since who knows when.  That a relatively fresh face and more unknown quantity gets 75% of the African American vote is somehow spun in favor of Hillary Clinton is an impressive feat on your part

    by dansac on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:39:37 AM PDT

    •  Um, well, there's one little fact you left out

      I'll let you figure out what it is, since you obviously know so much more about politics than I do.

      by Jim J on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:41:19 AM PDT

      •  That little fact didn't help Al Sharpton in 04

        The reality is that Obama did not wake up with the Black vote, he had to earn it. This topic has been talked to death already.

        by vaughan on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:26:23 AM PDT

    •  I don't think its impressive

      but I don't think its bad either.  I think we all knew Obama would get a large percentage of the AA vote, the same way Clinton has been getting a somewhat larger percentage of the female vote in most states.  You can discount it and say thats bs, but its happening, and there is real pull to these candidates based on race and gender.  I don't consider that a bad thing to be honest.  I'm glad people across this country are excited about making history.

      by NickC on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:42:39 AM PDT

      •  You must be a racist AND a chauvinist.

        by Jim Riggs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:48:14 AM PDT

    •  Yes, I'm sure that most

      African Americans have never heard of OBarack Obama, especially down in those southern backwoods states.

      lol

      by Jim Riggs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:46:34 AM PDT

•  I do not

  put much credence in any poll at this time.
  So fluid.
  Tennessee and Arkansas are clearly good for HRC.
  I think this will be pretty competitive on both sides next week. Maybe portends a long slog.

  by Hawkjt on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:37:48 AM PDT

•  Obama is going to

  Sweep Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and probably Louisiana, NC, Virginia, Maryland maybee even Tennesse.
  I think everything from Illinois south and east of the Mississippi river is Obama country.

  by Drewid on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:39:03 AM PDT

  •  The same polling company gives Clinton a 33 point

    lead in TN.

    by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:40:34 AM PDT

    •  Hence the

      "maybee even" part, the first four are pretty solid locks.

      by Drewid on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:45:51 AM PDT

  •  I guess I'll have to move then.

    by Jim Riggs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:49:18 AM PDT

  •  Nah, not too optimistic about Tennessee

    A new poll was released today and the numbers don't look good.

    by democrattotheend on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:56:59 AM PDT

  •  This is a secret weapon for Obama

    If Clinton doesn't run up the score on Feb. 5, four of the next five primaries are below the Mason-Dixon line and have very black Democratic electorates - Louisiana, Maryland, DC, Virginia. And then on Feb 19 they head to Wisconsin and Hawaii - both good Obama states. Clinton would have to win Washington state to avoid a bam-bam-bam rout until March.

    by daveweigel on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:39:28 AM PDT

•  Wow, I'm sure that by Tuesday

  Obama's going to be leading 100% to 0%. If she gets ANY votes it will be a tremendous comeback.

  lol

  by Jim Riggs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:40:41 AM PDT

  •  Lets hope so. nt

    by Lois on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:46:43 AM PDT

•  OK, that's interesting

  But as someone who has to choose a candidate before Tuesday, I'm 100x more interested in how Obama is shaping up to fare in Georgia's general election.   I feel no need to vote on Tuesday for the candidate who's going to win the primary.  I feel an immense need to vote on Tuesday for the Dem most likely to win in November.

  by Alden on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:43:47 AM PDT

  •  No Democrat is going to win Georgia, but the

    last poll I saw had Obama down more then 20 percent against the Republican.

    by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:46:39 AM PDT

    •  "Republican" is still generic

      until they figure out if its Romney or McCain and then both have problems every where.  I used to think it would be Romney but things seem to be lining up for McCain.  He is a weak candidate among Republicans, actually doing worse than he did in 2000.  If Romney was a Methodist, he'd probably be creaming McCain.

      by Lois on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:52:54 AM PDT

      •  dKos vs Republican assessments

        I'm still not sure who they're going to choose.  But it's interesting to compare our reactions to Wednesday's debate against the real-time Republican reactions.

        A lot of us, including me, thought McCain was winning and Romney was looking bad.  But when you look at CNN's approval meters attached to Republicans (what body part do they hook those things up to, anyway?) it was the exact opposite.  Going by the excerpts CNN aired after the debate, with the tracking curve superimposed on the screen, what many of us thought were McCain's strong moments, boding a threat to our own candidate in future debates, sank like a stone for the Republican watchers.  McCain just went down, down, down in those moments.  And Romney went up when we thought he was making a fool of himself.  

        I'll be interested to see how the polls move in these subsequent days.

        But the Presidency is still ours to lose this year.

        by Alden on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:52:44 AM PDT

  •  Ask yourself one question...

    Can Hillary appeal to independents and moderate Republicans?

    The events to date have shown us the answer to that question is "no".

    by JR Hawks on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:04:43 AM PDT

    •  She did in the Florida primary, getting more

      self described independents then Obama. She also does better amongst the base then Obama does.

      by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:09:07 AM PDT

      •  Can you

        please quit with the Florida nonsense?

        It makes you look desperate.

        Obama didn't even campaign there.

        by JR Hawks on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:15:15 AM PDT

        •  Neither did Clinton. And Obama did air ads there.

          by tigercourse on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:15:48 AM PDT

        •  Your Point Is...?

          ...and neither did Clinton campaign in Florida..so what's your point?

          by StuHunter on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:42:35 AM PDT

      •  But who were they?

        Georgia doesn't have as many elderly Jewish snowbirds from NYC as the Palm Beach to Miami corridor does.  So I'm not sure the independent and Republican turnout for Hillary in Florida predicts much for any other part of the country.  But I still haven't decided.

        by Alden on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:58:41 AM PDT

  •  Obama polls very poorly in southern GE matchups

    Significantly worse than Clinton. Even making allowances for higher African-American turnout, that isn't going to change.

    The path to the White House in 2008 does not run through the South for either candidate.

    by brittain33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:56:27 AM PDT

    •  So what really matters is nationwide electability

      by Alden on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 10:01:07 AM PDT

•  I don't trust either of the Insider Advantage

  polls, because the Tennessee crosstabs make me highly distrustful of their total methodology.

  They have Clinton up 80-14 among 18-29 year olds, 56-24 among 30-44 year olds, 49-37 among 45-60 year olds, and 67-17 among 60+ year olds.

  No way in hell does Obama either do that badly among 18-29 or year olds or do better among 60+ year olds than he does among 18-29 year olds.

  by DemocraticLuntz on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:48:05 AM PDT

  •  I'm with you, Luntzie.

    Both these polls are suspect.  The PPP cited above is much more realistic, and I'd think Obama by about 10 in a state with Georgia's demographics (huge proportion urban in one of the most progressive metropolises in the South; large AA pop; most white rurals are Republican and thus not counted in Dem primary surveys) is more realistic.

    by DC Pol Sci on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:23:39 AM PDT

•  If you live in Georgia

  it would be really good to do some ground-work. We have the poll numbers, but turnout will be a big factor, and I think Hillary was here last night (though I don't know why I think that.)

  I've donated some money, and hesitated to volunteer - being new to the state and all.

  But I'm working this weekend, which lets me say "so should you."

  by Msanger on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 08:50:57 AM PDT

•  My family in GA

  are all voting early because they have heard that there will be huge crowds next week. Both of these events are good signs for Barack.

  by smartdemmg on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:05:50 AM PDT

•  Georgia is basically rigged for Obama

  You get 30 delegates for winning the state and you get delegates awarded proportionately in each congressional district - and the more Democratic (more African-American) districts get more delegates. Of the 87 delegates I'd expect at least 65 go Obama.

  by daveweigel on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:34:46 AM PDT

  •  It sounds fair

    If a district has more Democrats, it should get more delegates. I say that as a Clinton supporter; if the Democratic electorate is disproportionately African-American, so it goes.

    by brittain33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:57:42 AM PDT

    •  It is fair

      I'm not saying "rigged" in a pejorative way. It's more fair than the electoral college. "Congrats, citizens of Wyoming - you count twice as much as those suckers in California!"

      by daveweigel on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 10:49:52 AM PDT