Daily Kos

DOE Energy Reports In: Yippeeeee!!

Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:20:24 PM PDT

This diary is going to be an outline of US energy generation.

All energy activists...meaning all you opinionated folks here on the Dailykos who think you know something about energy production and consumption and who want to follow up on this by actual political activity: listen up.

The US Department of Energy has issued their reports on electrical generation for the year 2006 after totaling up all the information from utilities, generators, operators and other sources. The issue this report every October. Additionally, they issue tons of other reports you all ought to read. We'll examine some of them here. One of these reports is once called Cost and Performance Characteristics of the New Central Station Electricity Generating Technologies. That's a mouthful. It ought to be. It's the DOE's projection of "Overnight costs" by on dollars-per-Kilowatt installed. Some FASCINATING numbers. This is a report that projects out into the future and is supposed to be a guide for how much it would cost to build a new nuke, wind, solar thermal, hydro or hamster powered electrical generating station.

All these numbers should be suspect on the grounds that the DOE is filled with "industry shills" "trolls" "fakers" and "corporate cronies of kleptomaniac capitalism". Oh, and "Republicans", don’t' want to forget them. Now that we got that out of the way, it should be noted that these reports are some of the only reports of their kind so everyone on both sides of the energy issue (gas vs coal, coal vs nuclear, solar vs hamster, etc) uses them to varying degrees depending if it adds to their arguments. Obviously.

Two reports, specifically, are not disputed. This one: Existing Capacity by Source and Planned Nameplate Capacity Additions from New Generators, by Energy Source.

So lets do this. One of the things to notice in the report that planned coal fired electrical generations is going UP. Big time. Between 2007 and 20011, 4-5 years, a total of  29698 MWs of new coal plants are coming online. That is 29 GWs for those who like the shorter numbers. This is approx. 33 plants depending on size. NONE of these plants are "clean coal" plants or IGCC or Carbon Sequestration. Why? Cuz it costs too much money to build them, that's why. Actually, they are 'clean coal' because the marketers like the term so it'll all be 'clean coal'. It would take only about 22 nuclear power plants built on current locations to eliminate these new coal plants. What a waste folks.

The rationalists would say, this is a dumb thing. As a rationalist myself, someone who believes in science and putting people before profits, I agree. The total amount of extra carbon and particulate and uranium and heavy metals that will now be spewed into the atmosphere is going to go up because we don't use nuclear power plants that spew nada into the air my and my children breathe (ok, 'child', I have only one). It is truly insane what US energy policy is.

More interesting items...There will about 5 times that amount of new natural gas plants, which also spew carbon and particulate, albeit at a much lower rate than coal, but at a fuel cost about 5 times as much. Well done. NG has so many uses but our policy is to burn it up.  

We can see from the Existing Capacity by Energy Source report that in 2006 the name plate capacity for all coal plants was 335,830MWs or, for those that are counting: 336 GWs. This is "name plate capacity" not how much they actually generated from burning up dead dinosaurs and cypress trees. Nuclear capacity was 105 GWs and natural gas was 442 GWs. But...oddly, we all know that coal is 50% of the generation in the US so what gives? Why isn't gas the leading performer? Because gas fire plants are far less reliable that coal or the winner in reliability, nuclear. That's why. The plants break more often, and in some ways they are more complicated than 'regular' steam plants like coal or nuclear fired plants. Gas plants more and more are the combined cycle gas turbine kind which use big-ass jet engines to spin a generator, capturing the exhaust heat to make steam to spin another turbine that spins a generator. Having worked at one I can attest to the "coolness" factor of these puppies. But they are still every expensive to run, they break all the time and still pollute.

It would take about 360 nuclear power plants to replace the 442 GWs now produced by burning expensive polluting natural gas. Oh, yeah, "Renewables" nameplated out at 26 GWs. Yeah, right. So you know, "renewables" is defined by the DOE in the following manner:

Wood, black liquor, other wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, tires, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy, and wind.

Everyone, bar none, hates this. They need to separate this out. It doesn't help anyone to throw solar thermal in with black liquor (whatever the hell that is) with wind with geothermal (which, actually, is not really renewable). BTW...is it just me or does "wood waste" and "sludge waste" sound 'clean' to you?

What is really, really, really interesting is the DOE's projection on renewables. They project a downward capacity increase over the next few years. From a high of 5 GWs last year to only 2 GWs this year, by 2011 it's down ½ GW of newly installed power. In other words, folks, it appears to be GOING AWAY. Now, to be fair, there is NO reading at all for nuclear because no COL applications have yet to be approved, even through though there appears to be close to 40 GWs of new nuclear planned down the road. But the DOE is correct, IMO, not use this number until the plants are actually approved and financed.

Lastly, on categorization. The DOE does not have categories like "Clean" and "Dirty". Or CO2 emitting or "Carbon free". Or "Amount of material used to create one actual KW of power". We can only hope for clarity down the road.

These reports are easy to read and fascinating. They show the obvious that we need more nuclear power and less of everything else. Of course that is this lefty atomic advocate's point of view.

Tags: nuclear energy, energy, DOE, department of energy, coal, pollution (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 69 comments

  •  I vote for more black liquor (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    AndrewOG, bryfry, Break On Through

    Although I may regret that tomorrow.

  •  So, why the decrease in renewables? n/t (0+ / 0-)

  •  Is that an "expected" decrease or is this the (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    cosette, auntiebembem

    first indication of an intended decrease?

    •  I know (0+ / 0-)

      but I was totally surpised by these low and decreasing numbers. I suspect that it has to do with the large number of cancelled wind turbine farms. It is the only thing I can think of. Geothermal in the US is decreasing, for sure, but in terms of new builds, which is what this stat is about, it seems few and fewer projections for wind are being filed with various state ISOs and PUCs. Very strange. Maybe someone will answer. I just wanted to note it.

      David

      •  You wrote that the reports are "easy to read" (7+ / 0-)

        but you misread that table 2.4 rather spectacularly. It does not indicate that renewable installation is GOING AWAY (in bold capitals as you put it) but rather, that the projects get completed so rapidly that many project plans more than a year or two from completion are not firmly sited, and don't get counted in that table.

        For example, take a look at the renewables installation figures from table 2.4 in the latest annual report, and compare with the same figures from the previous annual report:

        Planned Renewable
        Installation, MW/year
        200620072008200920102011
        Latest report--- 5,7142,03235021756
        Previous report3,0272,4546952360---

        You can see that the 2007 prediction as little as a year earlier had to be more than doubled for the latest report, in light of the big increase in wind installation. To be fair, the American Wind Energy Association got it fairly wrong as well: the AWEA was predicting 3000 MW installation in 2007 at the start of the year, only to find by the end of 2007 that more than 5200 MW had been added.

        But you seem to think the table refers to all the renewable projects that will get built. Do you really believe that the amount of renewable installation in 2011 will only be 56MW, or around 1% of what it was in 2007?

        The numbers have nothing to do with cancelled wind farms - it's simply that wind farms can get built so quickly that there are few plans firm enough to get counted in the estimated more than a couple of years in the future.

        I thought all this would be obvious to anyone who finds the reports easy to read.

        •  I already made this point upthread (0+ / 0-)

        •  No obviously, (0+ / 0-)

          but the point is that planning for these thngs has gone out for over 7 years in the past. It is true that the planners are no expecting bids or the builders are not submitting proposals or that any combination is actually drying up new starts. I did overstate it by saying 'it's going away', still, it seems odd.

          David

          •  not really that odd (0+ / 0-)

            As greater experience accumulates and the capacity to produce and install systems is gained the time required to go from conception to on-line gets compressed.  This change should not be unexpected -- it shows a maturing industry which can operate much more quickly.

      •  Tax credits. And--Geothermal?? (0+ / 0-)

        but I was totally surpised by these low and decreasing numbers. I suspect that it has to do with the large number of cancelled wind turbine farms. It is the only thing I can think of. ... in terms of new builds, which is what this stat is about, it seems few and fewer projections for wind are being filed with various state ISOs and PUCs. Very strange. Maybe someone will answer. I just wanted to note it.

        I haven't thoroughly scoured the threads here, but did anyone mention the creaky status of federal production and investment tax credits for renewables as a reason for tapering off?

        Both of these expire at the end of 2008, and haven't been renewed. The Senate has added one-year extensions in its version of the economic stimulus package, but the White House will oppose this.

        The PTC definitely affects the amount of wind in the development pipeline (as do turbine availability and the price of steel).  In retrograde's reformat of the EIA table, note the precipitous fall-off after 2008. That may be real.  I mean, who wouldn't work really hard to capture 10-year's worth of $20/MWh tax credit, and then knock off until Congress brings it back?

        There seems to be little appetite for building wind farms without these breaks because, I think, the investment community has gotten so used to them.

        These incentives aside, the cost of developing wind farms must rise, because the high-quality, easy pickings (good capacity near existing transmission lines) will eventually dry up. Then, everyone will have to realign their expectations for higher prices, so there could be a period of less developement while this works itself out.

        Geothermal in the US is decreasing, for sure,  

        Well, no, actually it isn't. Geothermal requires a lot of upfront messing around because it's not as simple as erecting acres of wind turbines after a year or so of anemometer measurements and flying critter mortality studies. There's resource exploration, test drilling, production/injection well drilling. and power plant construction. A fair number of projects are in the pipeline.

        As of May 2007, the Geothermal Energy Association found that about 2190 to 2565 MW from 69 projects are confirmed in all phases of development. The capacity range stems from including resources not fully characterized.

        About 330-370 MW of this is from 12 projects that are under construction or drilling production wells.

        Since this survey was published, the federal government has held four geothermal lease auctions (Idaho, Utah, Nevada, California), so there may be a few more projects in the early stages. For example, in a January 2008 update, the state of Nevada mentions at least four areas under consideration not listed in my previous link. And an auction in the long-neglected Oregon/Washington area will be held in June.

  •  Illinois FutureGen Plant stopped today by DOE (0+ / 0-)

    Link to LATimes article
    Sounds like Texas is going to try and nab this type of plant.

    "John McCain is a grifter and a scoundrel," dengre

    by cosette on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:47:07 PM PDT

    •  long term stable storage of CO2 is unresolved (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Plan9

      "cleaner coal" will remain a myth, even if sequestration is perfectly attainable practically, until we find a better solution than pumping down into old oil fields. At least spent nuclear fuel isn't a gas at 25C/1atm. :)

  •  You are quite enthusiastic... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Plan9

    ...either you're really dedicated or you're a paid shill. Regardless, I personally believe nuclear power is the superior energy source because it is so efficient and pollutes so little.

    The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny.

    by Tetris on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:47:54 PM PDT

    •  Great, you agree with me (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Plan9, Joffan, saildude

      and you think I'm a shill! Can't win, can I? You know, I don't agree with the antis on nuclear energy and although I think they end up, objectively, supporting fossil, I would never call anyone a shill unless I saw the money change hands.

      Just a thought, thanks for the compliment anyway.

  •  correction on natural gas (5+ / 0-)

    Natural gas is mostly used as a 'peaking' source, not so much as baseload capacity. This is due to two factors. First, natgas turbines can be dispatched very quickly and can follow load easily. It's more efficient to run them with secondary heat capture, but this doesn't diminish their ability to respond nearly instantly to changes in load. They aren't run continually because of high fuel costs. This leads to the second reason, that natgas plants are relatively inexpensive to build compared to coal and nuclear.

    This leads to very high nameplate capacity, that only runs about half the time during peak hours.

    I'll have more comments in a few moments, want to finish reading and digesting it.

  •  Don't forget China adds somewhere ~50GW/yr coal (4+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Plan9, docangel, NNadir, saildude

    and is just now starting to get serious about development of its nuclear fleet. I of course mean to push nuclear/wind as hard as possible in the US, but eventually this would run into difficulties when you start shuttering existing coal facilities once you start building above the rate of growth. I also think this is the right step, but it's going to be a big nasty fight. Perhaps in terms of actual CO2 reductions, it's wiser to preempt the new coal plants in China/India with heavy US/French/etc subsidy of nuclear development via fuel cycle agreements or technology transfer. They're going to build something to meet rising domestic demand... could be easier in the long run to get them on the nuclear train now, rather than fighting with all our energy at replacing existing plants in the US.

  •  Just for the record, it is always ... (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Jerome a Paris, Break On Through

    ...amazing to me how far off DOE's annual figures are when it comes to predicting how much new wind capacity will be installed each year.

    I am an anti-imperialist. I am opposed to having the eagle put its talons on any other land. -- Mark Twain

    by Meteor Blades on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:33:32 AM PDT

    •  The "Planned Nameplate" Report (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Plan9, bryfry, woolie

      isn't a prediction. It is simply a report of declared projects in hand. Just because there are few car dealer orders for 2010 automobiles as of now doesn't mean cars won't be produced then. On the other hand, the Outlook report does make predictions but, as far as I can tell, it doesn't make specific predictions about future wind capacity. It just lumps wind in with wood, black liquor, and the other renewables and predicts something like a 2.1 percent annual increase for the whole lump, which is probably reasonable considering wind still provides a small piece of the total renewables pie, so its double digit expansion every year doesn't move the entire renewables basket (which is otherwise running pretty flat) that much.

      •  Good point (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        woolie

        Also, a large part of the DOE's "predictions" involve running their models while varying a parameter (e.g., the price of natural gas) to see the effect it has (and the magnitude of the effect). They'll typically run, say, three scenarios: one with the value that they "expect" (from extrapolating from historical trends -- not always a reliable indicator, of course), one with a "high" value, and one with a "low" value. In this way, they can say, "if [A] does [B] then the models predict that ... however, if [A] does [C] then the models indicate that ..." In this way, you get a feel for how various important quantities affect the energy situation in the US and the world, which in my opinion is more valuable than a flat-out "prediction."

        These are models, folks, not the real world. Don't take a model too seriously unless you have real-world data to back it up -- and even then, keep a grain of salt handy. In some cases, a model can be so poorly done that you'd be better off pulling out a deck of Tarot cards to predict the future.

        Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
        -- George Eliot

        by bryfry on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 03:16:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The Outlook report for 2006, to offer ... (3+ / 0-)

        ...one recent example, predicted that, by 2030, wind power would provide only 1.1% of total U.S. energy generation. In 2005, wind power provided 0.4%. So what EIA was predicting over the entire 25 years was 5% annual growth in wind power generation, even though growth in 2005 was 35%. In 2006, it grew 27%. In 2007, it grew 45%.

        DOE's EIA did the same lousy "predicting" in its 2000 report for 2025, and the same in its 1995 report for 2020.  

        I am an anti-imperialist. I am opposed to having the eagle put its talons on any other land. -- Mark Twain

        by Meteor Blades on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:10:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  to be fair, 30%+annual growth may not be sustaine (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          bryfry

          in the long term; it reflects the inexpensive exploitation of the best sites first. Other nations have experienced new challenges in moving wind past 10-20% of total generation that reflect this.

          •  Agreed. But we're nowhere near ... (2+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            Break On Through, woolie

            ...that 20% (which is where the problems start happening), and EIA has been predicting extremely low percentages for wind since the AEO first included such information in 1990. You would think, after more than a decade and a half that somebody would do some fine-tuning. 1.1%? Ludicrous.

            I am an anti-imperialist. I am opposed to having the eagle put its talons on any other land. -- Mark Twain

            by Meteor Blades on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:54:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            Joffan

            Germany is a good example. It had a head start, has far more government incentives than the US for wind turbines, and has a pretty strong wind industry. Yet, in spite of all of this, the US is probably going to pass Germany in wind capacity in 2009.

            It appears that Germany hit about the 5% mark (for electricity generation) and stalled out.

            It's clear that 30% growth is not sustainable for very long, even if the government is paying for much of it. Much more modest, steady growth is a far more likely scenario in the long run.  Where that growth eventually stalls out is a point for quite a bit of speculation.

            Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
            -- George Eliot

            by bryfry on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:16:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  stalled out? (1+ / 0-)

              Recommended by:
              raoul78

              Although there has been a slow down the past year or two in Germany, it's not as if there was a 30% growth rate that stopped in its tracks or that they've reached any sort of grid-related limit.  Their wind capacity installations have bounced around for the past 7 years, here's the GW added each year starting in 2001: 2.7, 3.2, 2.6, 2.0, 1.8, 2.2, 1.7.  Not exactly indicating some great growth rate followed by a collapse.   The US has been growing much more rapidly and obviously has a lot more room to expand.

              •  Exactly my point (0+ / 0-)

                It's hardly growing at 30% or even 20% each year. Recently, the amount of energy being produced by wind in Germany has been growing at a rate substantially less than half of 30% each year. If it's above 10% then it's a pretty good year. This is in a country that has impressive incentives to spur growth and has had them for years.

                Your numbers demonstrate perfectly what I said: modest, steady growth is a far more likely scenario in the long run.

                Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
                -- George Eliot

                by bryfry on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 07:09:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  It scares me to think (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Plan9, Break On Through, saildude

    that we're still, today!, planning on building new coal plants.  Hopefully there will be more cancellations of these planned projects like we saw last year.  If I read those numbers correctly, we're looking at almost a 9% increase in nameplate capacity.    More and more I'm becoming convinced we're pretty much just fucking doomed:(

    •  Another thing about coal (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      raoul78

      that is just now starting to get attention is the fly ash byproduct from coal combustion.

      The pollutants that are scrubbed from the smokestacks are captured and the resultant fly ash is either buried where leaching is a concern or processed into cement,wallboard or other products that release the scrubbed pollutants at a later date.

      The "scrubbed heavy metals etc. don't disappear, they are captured and become their own pollution source.

  •  Interesting ... (0+ / 0-)

    David, I didn't know that natural gas plants had so many persistent maintenance problems. Are you referring mostly to the combined cycle plants when you talk about them "breaking," or do the simpler plants also suffer from problems?

    Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
    -- George Eliot

    by bryfry on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 03:01:45 AM PDT

    •  Mostly combined cycle plants (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      bryfry

      The problem is not in the GT but in the HRSG or "heat recovery steam generator" where the tubes are. I'm in the HRSG Usrs Group for GE and all HRSGs have the same problem with 'steam velocity' and chemical control. They often, very often, have leaks in these tubes or the loops at the ends wash out completely, making the HRSG useless.

      The CCGT can be amazingly efficient. The GE "H" frame is 60% efficiency, to site one of the new examples. Most run about 45 to 50%. But the HRSG is the weak point.

      David

      •  OK (0+ / 0-)

        That makes sense, thanks for the additional info.

        Of course, a combined-cycle system could also be driven by a nuclear heat source -- say, a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The one such reactor that is currently on the drawing boards, the South-African PBMR, has opted for driving only a gas turbine directly. This is less efficient (as you mention), but it is simpler and of course is not prone to the problems that you have pointed out.

        Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
        -- George Eliot

        by bryfry on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 01:26:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You mean a Gas turbine (0+ / 0-)

          not a Combined cycle gas turbine...the GT on a high temperature gas reactor like the PBMR is a 'closed' cycle gas turbine...meaning the "exhaust", in this case helium, is cooled off after it completes its passage throug the jet engine giving up it's energy in the form of rotating mechanical energy and is return to the reactor.

          David

          •  That's true, for the PBMR (0+ / 0-)

            That's how it works. Nevertheless, there is no reason why you couldn't put in a steam generator in the loop and draw off more energy for a bottoming cycle -- thereby increasing your efficiency.

            If you put in a gas/gas heat exchanger to transfer the heat from the helium flowing through the reactor to nitrogen (or a nitrogen mix), you could even use "off-the-shelf" components for your combined cycle electricity generation -- i.e., the kind of stuff that is already developed and running in natural gas plants.

            One of the challenges of a designing plant like the PBMR is developing a working gas turbine for helium.

            Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact.
            -- George Eliot

            by bryfry on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 03:28:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Some thoughts, not terribly well thought out (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Break On Through

    We need first to increase the efficiency of energy we use now. Why do we have HDTV? Government/industry mandate. Now if our leaders can get it together to make us buy new TV's so we can see their bloodshot eyes more clearly at press conferences, then perhaps they can set truly high efficiency standards for appliances and industrial motors. The magic of the market is too slow and too destructive to make this happen as quickly as we need it to. Solar and wind will increase faster and at a higher capacity than DOE states(institutional bias). IF we go back to increasing nuclear capacity, it might help not to build plants where water supplies will be threatened by drought. As we're seeing in the southeast, nuclear is as reliant on nature as other methods of power production.

    I have an irrational faith in reason.

    by the fan man on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 05:01:18 AM PDT

    •  Increase efficiency, but not "first" (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      bryfry

      We need action on all fronts to reduce fossil fuel use starting now. Some actions will be more effective, some less, but we could run every household in the country on good wishes and fairy dust in place of electricity and we'd still need to make HUGE reductions in fossil fuel use. Household use is one third of electricity use roughly and again roughly electricity is nearly half of energy use. So action on household efficicency is tackling one-sixth of the problem or less. Again I'm not saying we shouldn't do it; but we absolutely mustn't defer other actions.

      Nuclear plants have never closed down from drought, only from over-temperature inlet water which would mean the outlet water was outside the environmental permit temperature. "as reliant", hah, what a joker. So what if, maybe one or two weeks in some summers, we have to slow down a few of the reactors? What about the other 99+% of carbon-free electricity production?

      This is not a sig-line.

      by Joffan on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 06:38:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I told you my thoughts weren't very well (0+ / 0-)

        thought out! Of course we need to make huge reductions in fossil fuel use. This is where I'm coming from: thirty five years ago we had a wake up call when OPEC decided to pull our chain. What did we do? Bigger cars, more spread out burbs, bigger houses, larger appliances. In sum, when we felt a pain in our chest, we decided to pig out on burgers and fries. As soon as Carter left office, off went the solar panels, alternative energy programs scrubbed. We have an economy where investors demand such a fast return on their buck that CEOs need to have a three to five year return on investments in energy efficiency. I've been hearing "build more plants, deal with efficiency/alternative energy later" for too many years. It's a mindset that has to go.

        As far as water temps/drought I just read the AP and swear by every word. They're wrong? Well who woulda thunk. I relied on them for Iraq information too!
        Thanks for the reply. I love learning, even on this site.

        I have an irrational faith in reason.

        by the fan man on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:43:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  two points (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      the fan man

      We're not mandating HDTV, merely digital broadcasts. These may continue to be standard definition. Part of this is because US TV broadcasting technology has lagged the rest of the world for some time in terms of quality (PAL, DVB, etc.)

      Second, nuclear plants can easily be designed to be very thrifty in terms of water consumption by using dry cooling towers (the hyperbolic heat exchangers so emblematic of nuclear in the public consciousness.. although these are used for all kinds of steam cycle power, incl. coal, where water is tight.) It adds cost and complexity (maybe 10%), but it's certainly doable. It's a little known fact that the largest nuclear installation in the country, Palo Verde, is in the middle of a desert. Furthermore, fortunately most of our population is near coastal regions; reactors placed on the coast can simply use the ocean as their coolant.

      The throttling of some reactors in the US and France is almost purely the result of regulatory limits and not engineering concerns. The discharge temperature of the water cannot go above a certain temperature because of wildlife concerns.

      •  In two years I doubt I'll able to buy a (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Break On Through

        standard def TV. If my current set fries, I'm going to have to buy a high def set. (Repair is no longer an economic option) We are being moved to a new standard. If they would provide some decent programing, it might even be a good idea. Do you know the most energy efficient HDTV sets are only available in Europe? Go figure.
        The only thing I know about low water levels and nukes is what I read on AP/CNN. They were inaccurate? Well knock me over with a feather!
        I prefaced my comment with "not very well thought out" and I stand by those words. Thirty five years ago we had a wake up call when OPEC decided to pull our chain. What did we do? Bigger cars, more spread out burbs, bigger houses, larger appliances. In sum, when we felt a pain in our chest, we decided to pig out on burgers and fries. As soon as Carter left office, off went the solar panels, alternative energy programs scrubbed. We have an economy where investors demand such a fast return on their buck that CEOs need to have a three to five year max return on investments in energy efficiency. I've been hearing "build more plants, deal with efficiency/alternative energy later" for too many years. It's a mindset that has to go.

        I have an irrational faith in reason.

        by the fan man on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:53:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's a trade off. (0+ / 0-)

        Once through open cooling such as exists on rivers, lakes and oceans use lot's of water but return it to the source and use only a very little bit...a few thousand gallons an hour (and that would be a lot).

        Closed, cooling tower style of turbine cooling uses very little source water but loses a lot more to evaporation. The Palos Verde plant, the largest nuke in the US, is build in the middle of the Sonoran Desert and using a trickle of sewer water from Pheonix for cooling.

        Ocean side once through cooling is not effected by droughts at all, of course. Some plants use a hybrid version that uses cooling towers, air-cooled condensers and once through cooling.

        It can be a problem that is engineered away.

        David

  •  Strange that nuclear power uprates are not there (4+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Plan9, NNadir, bryfry, woolie

    when there's already a planned increase of 1200MW this year.

    This is not a sig-line.

    by Joffan on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 06:41:40 AM PDT

    •  A great topic to bring up when people insist (0+ / 0-)

      that US nuclear plants are 'dangerous, crumbling relics.'

    •  One of these has already bailed (0+ / 0-)

      In a Jan. 27 announcment, Warren Buffett's MidAmerican Nuclear Energy Co. has abandoned plans for its proposed 1100-1600 MW nuke in Idaho, citing high costs.

      This came a week after affiliate PacifiCorp put on hold an integrated gasification combined-cycle coal plant it proposed with partner Wyoming Infrastructure Agency, also citing costs, as well as the lack of a national carbon policy.

      •  I know. And (0+ / 0-)

        I expect this to occur several more times over the next 10 years. But...also noted, about 3 days later, FPL put announced a COL for two MORE reactors for Florida.

        All of this, however, is woefully short of what we need, which are about 10 times the number of applications expected.

        David

      •  Well, no, Rick, that's not an uprate (0+ / 0-)

        - the uprates are at exising plants, they are practically certain to go ahead. Also the Idaho cancellation is not really very big news since they weren't very far along the path to building a plant. I have to say I'm glad that there's some future-legislation anxiety creeping in to decisions on new coal plant build. It should not be a matter of anxiety though; I'd love to see some solid, appropriate, long-range charge structure on carbon emissions so that the infrastructure decision which are needed can be made.

        This is not a sig-line.

        by Joffan on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:33:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The DOE has figures on how much "biomass" is... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    woolie

    ...actually solid municpal waste (trash) burning:

    The figures are here.

  •  thankfully poor predictions... (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    JohnnyRook

    Two reports, specifically, are not disputed. This one: Existing Capacity by Source and Planned Nameplate Capacity Additions from New Generators, by Energy Source.

    Actually, although the first report is not disputed, the second one most certainly is.  The EIA reported planned nameplate capacity additions for coal plants are typically only reliable for about two years into the future.  The 2003 report said that 4.8 GW would be built in 2007, the 2004 report revised this down to 2.1 GW, the 2005 report dropped it to 1.6 GW and the new report puts it at 1.7 GW.  

    The really big planned capacity additions for coal in the latest report are for 2009 and beyond and it is likely that many of these plants may never be built.  The 2009 projection of 12.6 GW includes about 9GW for Texas.  Aren't many of these plants already cancelled?

    •  Most, but not all (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      JohnnyRook

      Last time I checked, 16 were planned, at least 3 are still going forward. I think we're up to 6 anticipated COL applications for TX, though.

      •  There were.. (0+ / 0-)

        28 coal projects 'announced' in 2007 and 25 were cancelled (POWER magazine, March-April 2008). So, that's a good thing.

        It will be REALLY good when the COLs for nuclear plants get approved...and that won't be for another 4 years for the first batch.

        Both Gas and Coal produced terrible emissions. Wind has yet to displace a single fossil plant (although they have cut down on fossil use). The predictions from Europe, with Denmark having a goal of "50%" wind (meaning 20% if they are lucky when the wind actually blows) will rest on the vast Eurpean grid of coal and nuclear. The same will be true for the US regardless of who much wind is produced.

        So..."20% wind"...fine...what about the other 80%?

        David

  •  Just wanted to add this... (0+ / 0-)

    WaPo just reported that the DC metro area may start instituting rolling blackouts by 2011, and fretting about what to do. Gees, how's about something, if anything?  There are so many options.  I would venture, a little of EVERYTHING, since we're not doing much of anything at all. Spread the pain everywhere people, this is called lifestyle change.  Read the article here. THe state of reporting these days. Bleah.

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