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(From the diaries - georgia10)

Barack Obama may be riding the momentum of a caucus win into New Hampshire, but the real winner in tonight's Iowa caucus was young voters.

It's been a long and rocky road for young voters - in the media and in the party -  For four years, the media has declared (incorrectly) that young voters were the downfall of Howard Dean, whose over-reliance on an "unreliable demographic" ushered in his defeat in the 2004 caucus.  This, despite the fact that youth turnout at the caucus increased that year.  For the last year, we've heard how Obama's strategy was foolhardy, and even from the campaign we heard that the youth vote would be "icing on the cake."

It turns out, it was the cake.

According to estimates by CIRCLE (pdf) youth vote turnout at the caucus tripled tonight, rising from 4% to 11%.  Within the Democratic caucus, over 46,000 young people participated, and young voters comprised 22% of all  caucus-goers.   According to entrance polls by CNN, 57% of those 17-29 year old caucus goers stood up to caucus for Barack Obama.  Tonight, they drove his campaign to victory.

The numbers themselves were larger than expected, especially considering the early caucus date during winter break for most colleges. But no one who has been paying attention to young voters in the past four years should be surprised that young Iowans played such a significant role in tonight's caucus.  These are not isolated incidents.  In 2004, youth participation in the Iowa Caucus quadrupled.  In the 2004 general election, youth turnout saw the largest increase in over a decade.  Turnout was also up in 2006 (pdf).  Tonight's caucus turnout was part of a four year trend in young voter turnout.

Tonight was also a victory for the Democratic Party.  Participation in the caucus almost doubled.  212,000 Democratic voters turned out compared to 125,000 in 2004.  About 46,000 of those caucus-goers were young voters.  Compare that to the Republicans: CIRCLE (pdf) reports that only 10,000 young people participated in the Republican caucus, just 10% of all Republican caucus-goers.  This too is a trend.  In 2004, young voters broke in favor of John Kerry over President Bush 54 - 45%.  In 2006, young voters chose Democratic candidates 60% - 38%, increasing a growing trend towards favoring progressive candidates.  

Young voters are increasingly moving in the direction of Democrats, and tonight, the Obama campaign - thanks to a savvy youth operation that reached out on Facebook and MySpace, at high schools and on college campuses - was able to capitalize on that to attain victory.  His win confirms what many have been saying for years now: young people will vote if you pay attention to the, speak to their issues, and reach out.  New technologies can certainly help make that initial connection, yet it's still good old fashioned face to face politicking - peer to peer organizing - that makes the difference.  Years ago, when young people began voting Republican during the Reagan Era, Democrats stopped asking young voters to participate.  Tonight's victory shows what individual candidates, and the Democratic Party stand to gain by courting today's young voters.  

Tonight we saw the the core of a future progressive majority make its presence known in Democratic politics.  Young Voters are not a hidden vote or icing on the cake, and after tonight, everyone knows it.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:35 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

    •  What a wonderful victory for us all, and... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      epcraig, elie, Nulwee, dolphin777

      we should be proud of what has happened this day.

      (Sorry for promoting my diary.  i just had a lot more to say than could be contained in a thread).  

      I am joyful for Democracy.

    •  Grateful to Obama (9+ / 0-)

      while Dems in general attract younger voters that's not the same as truly capitalizing on that fact.

      This was a close race.  Edwards strongly appeals to the blogosphere and the actvist base, and Clinton is an institutional powerhouse, doing very well with middle-aged Dem women and fans of her husband and Wes Clark.

      But Obama does best with exactly the groups the party needs to more than appeal to.  We should be grateful Obama was able to do this, and kept at it when cynical observers dismissed every effort he's made.

      If we get youth, women, minorities and seniors to vote in 2008, the election will be more than ours.  It will be definitive for the first time in a decade.

      Benazir Bhutto was the real Hugo Chavez. So in regards to the Society of Kossacks for the Beatification of Bhutto, excuse me while I barf.

      by Nulwee on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:02:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  how we're going to beat the Bigot Vote (7+ / 0-)

      Obama's negatives in the polls are only 5-10% higher than the median for all candidates.  That tells me that this is the Bigot Vote:  5 - 10% of the electorate, who put race before reason, hatreds before hopes.  

      The re-energized youth vote is more than enough to make up that difference.  The re-energized votes of America's minorities are more than enough to make up that difference.  And these two forces together are more than enough to make for a tidal wave in November, of historic proportions.

      To this, add sane Republicans who recognize that Hucksterbee's anti-science stance is an anti-competitive stance that will put America in the scientific and technological backwaters of the world while China plants its flag on the moon.  To this add sane conservatives who recognize that the fiscal and military imprudence of Bush and those who follow after him are the surest way to wreck a nation's economy and weaken its defense.  

      To this add the "farmers, scientists, and entrepreneurs" who realize that Bush's bungling and those who apologize for it, do not build a firm foundation for putting food onto America's tables, breakthroughs into the pages of the peer-reviewed journals, or innovative products and services into the marketplace.  

      To this add anyone who is moved by a message of one nation indivisible, with liberty and justice for all: a message that this nation must reclaim its heritage as a place founded not upon an ethnicity but upon an idea and an ideal.  People for whom the eloquent expression of these ideas calls to a place in their heart that has grown sadly silent over the past seven years.  People for whom the message of hope is contagious inspiration to redouble their efforts and reach for goals that may once have seemed out of range.

      And if, as the Republican party chairman said on TV, the Republicans try to make an issue about "experience," we have an answer to that:

      Yes, the last seven years sure have been an experience, haven't they?  

      An experience we do not want to repeat!  

      A learning experience from which we have learned a lesson!

      And now we are going to take that lesson and apply it for all it's worth!  

    •  Excellent Diary (0+ / 0-)

      Thanks for that Michael.

      Feingold is my hero

      by Marc in CA on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:27:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Uh...How 'Bout a Hat-Tip to Birch Bayh... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oldpro, epcraig, ybruti, dolphin777

      who had the wisdom and foresight to champion the 18-year-old vote back in the 70's.  He took on the fight and won it.  For all these years, people scoffed, derided young voters, but last nite, the dream finally....finally!!  came true!!!

      God Bless You, Birch Bayh, and I'm glad you're still around to see this glorious day!!!

      Sen. Bayh, btw, also took on other big, profound changes, like the ERA, Volunteer Army, and others.  Son Evan....not so much...

      •  I'm old enuf to recall this event (71 y.o.) and (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oldpro, Janet Strange, epcraig, techno, serrano

        felt then as now: if we can send them into harm's way, they sure-as-shit oughta be able to vote for/against those who send/sent them!

        Yeah, I agree: Birch was a giant compared to Evan!

        I rejoice when I learn of greater interest and participation among the younger voters! They'll inherit this world soon enough, and shaping it is a profound responsibility!

        Aloha .. .. ..

  •  Can't emphasize that enough... (12+ / 0-)

    If you care about us and treat us with respect, we'll come out and vote.

  •  Good job, youth voters! (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trix, x, SFJen, dolphin777, nadeane, Jeff Y, echatwa

    Even if you didn't vote for my candidate(s), I still give you big props for getting to the polls!

    •  Polls? More like a 2-hour sit-in demonstration. (6+ / 0-)

      The polls are next November when it really counts for all the marbles, from Secretary of Defense and Attorney General to the Supreme Court.

      One night of some combination of "American Idol" and "Survivor" doesn't make an election...we'll see if its a harbinger of change in the political behavior of young people...or not.

      Tell me how you spend your time and how you spend your money -- I'll tell you what your values are.

      by oldpro on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:23:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, Old Pro... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oldpro, dolphin777, Jeff Y

        ...in fact, I could not agree more.

        Just wanted to give some cheers to those who did get out there and vote.

      •  Nitpicking (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gooserock, elie, dolphin777, Jeff Y

        Harbinger: A harbinger is a sign of things to come.

        You can't retroactively declare an event an "harbinger".

        •  Well, you can (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Meteor Blades, dolphin777

          People can miss signs, and see them in retrospect.  Maybe if no one sees an event as a sign of things to come, then that event can't be a harbinger.  But that doesn't mean everyone has to see it as a harbinger at the time it occurs.  

          Sorry, I teach philosophy (almost went to school with Markos) and nitpick for a living...

        •  I actually didn't declare the event a (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dolphin777

          harbinger...I said we'll see - that is, time will tell - if it was or wasn't.

          You should have taken me to task for the missing apostrophe in 'its,' though...

          Lots of opportunities to nitpick me...present, past and future!  Keep a lookout!

          Careful, though...I'm known to be pretty picky about some things myself.  Be warned...I don't stand for people mixing up 'who' and 'that' (for one thing)...and 'towing the line' drives me absolutely bananas.

          Tell me how you spend your time and how you spend your money -- I'll tell you what your values are.

          by oldpro on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:48:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I take my harbingers with grilled onions, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dolphin777

          lettuce, mustard, and pickles.

          and preferably on a hard roll, not some macdonald's soft pseudobread.

          In the United States, doing good has come to be, like patriotism, a favorite device of persons with something to sell. - Mencken

          by agnostic on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:17:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've recently discovered a quasi "burger" -- (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            oldpro, agnostic

            made with Porto 'shrooms!

            Next time I plan to eat a harbinger, I'll combine it with a Veggie Patch "burger"! I think some creamy horseradish would go very well.

            P.S. What's the calorie count on a harbinger?!

            Aloha .. .. ..

      •  The diarist provides evidence (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gooserock, dolphin777, Jeff Y

        of that change.

        Your pooh-poohing is just a failure to read the diary, or respond to it.

        •  Well, no...read it, responded to it.... (0+ / 0-)

          ...just because you don't like my response doesn't mean it isn't one.  I raised a legitimate question, is all.  Surely we grownups can handle that without getting all bent out of shape?

          Jeez Louise.

          Tell me how you spend your time and how you spend your money -- I'll tell you what your values are.

          by oldpro on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:13:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Indeed we will... (6+ / 0-)

        One night of some combination of "American Idol" and "Survivor" doesn't make an election...

        I also wonder about this stat (from Wa Po:

        Clinton, seeking to become the first female president in U.S. history, had staked her hopes in part on winning decisively among women. Fifty-seven percent of the caucus attendees were women, but the NEP entrance poll showed Obama winning the support of 35 percent of women, compared with 30 percent for Clinton.

        The bread n' butter didn't come through for Hill, apparently.

        •  Yes. Quite interesting. Looking forward to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dolphin777, Neon Vincent

          seeing the age/gender breakdowns if available.  She was targeting older women...dunno what their 'actual turnout vs. expected' was nor how their vote split for various candidates but I'm sure it will be analyzed to a fare thee well.  The huge numbers in turnout skewed all expectations I imagine...

          Still...not a blowout in my book...70% of Democrats at the Iowa caucuses chose someone other than Hillary OR Edwards while 60+% of the Democrats chose someone other than Obama.

          It's still a crapshoot... tho perhaps not for Edwards.  It may be game over.

          Tell me how you spend your time and how you spend your money -- I'll tell you what your values are.

          by oldpro on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:23:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  If kids are "demonstrating" against the party (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oldpro, wu ming, dolphin777, Neon Vincent

        ya think there might be a problem?

        If CNN's numbers are to be believed, then it's not unreasonable to attribute Clinton's third place finish to her 11% showing among those 17-29 (Bill Richardson got 10%). Did Clinton's comments directed against the youth play a role? (keywords: "Facebook" and "Real Iowans")

        I really recommend looking at CNN's numbers. The trend across generations is pretty interesting:

        17-29: Obama 57%
        30-44: Obama 47%
        45-64: Edwards 31%
        65-up: Clinton 45%

        Looks like the kids staged an intra-party coup and broke the conventional wisdom that you win by appealing to older voters.

        "Gasoline and uranium taste terrible." -- Horsefeathers

        by opendna on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:07:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hard to say...kids are always against (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          opendna, dolphin777, Neon Vincent

          'the system' and side at most opportunities with the rebels if it doesn't cost them anything.  And they're not usually 'wrong' to rebel and raise heck...or even Hell!

          Yes...I think Hillary's comments were NOT helpful to her campaign re young folks.

          As for the conventional wisdom re targeting older voters, I think it applies more to elections as opposed to caucuses and general elections in particular.  Historically, it has been a useful guide.  However, George Bush's numbers in '04 made a shambles of that 'wisdom.'  They actually grew their party, so even though Kerry got more votes than Gore had, Bush got more than that...bigtime.

          We have to do that too...and not just in one-time events like a caucus and not just once every four years in a presidential election cycle.  This could be a beginning.  We'll see.

          Tell me how you spend your time and how you spend your money -- I'll tell you what your values are.

          by oldpro on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:34:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Her Videogame Censorship stupidity (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          opendna, Neon Vincent

          Especially since Iowa lets 17 year olds caucus.

          Democratic Candidate for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)
          Court certified Marijuana Expert

          by ben masel on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:17:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Avg. VG player is about 30 these days (0+ / 0-)

            It's a lot bigger section of the public than you think... they just haven't voted until the last 4 years.

          •  The Videogame Problem (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            opendna, Victory Coffee

            As a 20-year old who is a pretty avid videogamer (although I don't think I own any games that would have been covered by Sen. Clinton's crusade in the GTA ilk), I think you hit on a good, if underlooked, point.

            I am not old enough to remember the event, but my re-watchings of VH1's retrospectives showed me the Dee Snider v. Gore censorship hearings in Washington in terms of music. That led, IIRC, to the explicit lyrics warning on CDs that we still have today.

            The teenagers in 1985 range in age from 35-41 at this point.

            Why do I mention this? Well, it seems rather similar to what the teenage gamers saw from the "Hot Coffee" scandal in videogames. A hidden (and from what I've heard, impossible to expose without clear technological knowledge of code) portion of the game showed rather explicit content on a game clearly meant for 17+ year olds. Instead of chalking it up to good hackers and issuing a correction (which was done afterwards), the politicians reignited the crusade against another form of media.

            Recall that the average gamer, as said below, is about 30 (and that age will only rise), and you have two generations whose media has been limited, rightfully or wrongly depending on your viewpoint, by politicians. Some people have seen this twice, and people who don't like censorship or governmental parenting may not approve of Clinton's action in the "Hot Coffee" scenario and may see it as an eerie reminder of two decades past.

            I will say, once again, I am a 20 year old from NH who will be voting in his first primary on Tuesday. I will not be voting for Sen. Clinton and I have my reasons. This is not a major reason for my non-vote, but it was the introductory reason. Sure, Sen. Obama probably hasn't played a video game since Tetris and most of the candidates only go as far as having a staffer set up a "Second Life" base (well, Mike Huckabee played a little Guitar Hero). However, this incident was a negative first impression for me with Sen. Clinton and the partnership with Lieberman still lingers...

        •  I admit to: "65-up". I turn 71 Jan. 7! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          opendna, ybruti

          However, were I in Iowa, count me out of that breakdown!  Ditto when actual voting occurs!

          A minimum of four times, I've heard TeeVee pundit-types say (after Iowa results known): HRC -- either ya like her, OR YOU DON'T!!

          I don't! I refuse to be included in some monolithic demographic, e.g. my gender/age/income/geographic location...

          A Dem lifelong, I may be faced with some verrryy difficult choices soon!!

          Aloha .. .. ..

    •  Congrats to the Dems in Iowa (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      agnostic, nadeane

      for getting out the vote.

      That thud sound we all heard tonight was the Ron Paul Revolution running into a brick wall:

  •  Ron Paul's youth support (7+ / 0-)

    Per the CNN entry poll 17-29s were 11% of GOP caucus votes, with Paul getting 21%, better than double his total with older voters.

    I imagine few were attracted by his economic positions. They can be attracted for November, but browbeating won't work.

    Democratic Candidate for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)
    Court certified Marijuana Expert

    by ben masel on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:14:45 PM PST

  •  This is exactly why we need Obama as the nominee (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    x, mjd in florida, agnostic, elie, nadeane, Jeff Y

    He connects with the younger generation much better then anyone else.

  •  But will they show up in the general? (5+ / 0-)

    Youth vote is awfully fickle... plus, there are a great number of new barriers such as voter ID that disenfranchise college students...

    That worries me significantly...

    Thanks,

    Mike

    •  Trends say yes (13+ / 0-)

      Trends say yes, and there are more barriers to participation in the Iowa Caucus than just about anywhere.

      My vote is yes, and I wouldn't be surprised if turnout was up above 50%.

      In 2004, in targeted states (by new progressive youth groups outside the party), turnout was up to 64% in some places.  With the campaigns focusing on youth so early, it wouldn't be surprising to me if turnout across the general youth electorate topped 60% in the general election.

      Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Now available on Amazon.com

      by Michael Connery on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:40:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's Not Showing Up, It's Being Ejected (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, LordMike, nadeane

      Different problem entirely.

      One thing warms my heart, this generation of kids is feeling some % of the personal threat that we boomers did.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:11:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not really about personal threat (0+ / 0-)

        Not in the '60s and not now.

        Instead it's more about personal...anger? Frustration? A desire to change and produce a better future for ourselves and our loved ones?

        I think that to see the Sixties movements as a product of "personal threat" is to miss out on the wide diversity of causes and issues and motivations that produced it.

        I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

        by eugene on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:00:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Now that we've established that... (10+ / 0-)

    Get off my lawn!

  •  Great job, young voters!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    x, nadeane

    Way to go!

    thumbs up

  •  This 20-year-old couldn't be more proud (9+ / 0-)

    ...and not just because my candidate won!

  •  Damn straight. (8+ / 0-)

    I'm so tired of pundits trying to sh*t on young voters.  So yay for young voter turnout!

  •  a single swallow does not a summer make (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oldpro, burrow owl

    the point of all of this is are the youth vote going to come out on the second tuesday on november.

    and since they never have before, your orgasmic attitude is to say at the least, premature.

    "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

    by kuvasz on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:44:31 PM PST

    •  REad the Diary (6+ / 0-)

      What part of TREND don't you understand?

      Click on the links, there is ample evidence to support all my claims.

      Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Now available on Amazon.com

      by Michael Connery on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:49:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  unlike you i believe in facts (0+ / 0-)

        if you are so smart how come you failed to understand that what i pointed out was that your claims were meaningless under historical perspective?

        your isolated claims may be substantiated in a particular instance but they do not sustantiate that they are meaningful in the entire scheme of things.

        look up the word syllogism in the dictionary then prefix it with the adjective "false," and you get a working defintion of your thesis

        show me a presidential election that has been swung by the "youth" vote.

        do it. or stop wasting my time you silly person.

        "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

        by kuvasz on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:12:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Perfect enemy of the good (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nadeane, LI Mike

          Now you're the one reading too much into my stuff.  

          First off, youth have already swung major elections in recent years.  See: Tester, Jon and Webb, Jim.

          Second, youth vote increased significantly in 2004 and were the only age group to vote for Kerry over Bush.  

          Why is it that people like yourself require the youth vote to "swing the election" or "fail miserably."  

          Today, perhaps, youth won it for Barack.  Isn't it enough that trends indicate they will form a solid base of the progressive movement for years to come.  isn't it enough taht the will likely be a highly engaged constituency and have a significant, if not defining impact, in 2008?

          Trends say you are wrong.  Yesterday, your argument was the same as all the pundits saying that the youth wouldn't vote in Iowa.  Today they were wrong and evidence says it is very likely you are too.

          I was right about this yesterday, and for over a year when no one would listen.  I'll stand by my analysis today.

          Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Now available on Amazon.com

          by Michael Connery on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:20:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nitpick ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            epcraig, beachmom

            ...the age cohort born 1946-1955 (also known as the first wave of the Baby Boom generation) voted for Kerry. "Generation Jones," the second wave of Baby Boomers (born 1956-1965) provided Bush with his margin of victory.

            "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

            by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:32:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sorry, the actual dates are: (0+ / 0-)

              Baby Boomers: 1946-1953
              Generation Jones: 1954-1965

              GJs made up 26% of the voting-age population in 2004.

              "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

              by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:34:38 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Defining expnce was the draft. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                epcraig

                As a born in '54, while we weren't actually drafted, we expected it, up to the dates we registered for Selective Service, so I'd put the line at 1955.

                Democratic Candidate for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)
                Court certified Marijuana Expert

                by ben masel on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:27:27 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

                That's interesting.  Pollsters never break it up that way, so I've never seen that before.

                Thanks.

                Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Now available on Amazon.com

                by Michael Connery on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 09:19:16 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Difference (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              epcraig

              We first-wavers saw the youth culture, music and even marijuana as part of a political statement.

              The 2nd wave just wanted to get high, fried their brains, and believed in Ronald Reagan like zombies.

            •  you're just as sorry as mikey boy (0+ / 0-)

              nitpicking?

              well now, nitpicking is the difference between having a rubber O ring freeze at 32F or remain flexible, the difference between a fire and firefly or lighting and a lightening bug. nitpicking is the sharp edge that slices fantasy from reality.

              i am sorry that the use of language causes you confusion, but you still haven't produced data that shows that any national election hung on the youth vote. and classically "youth voting" is referred to as the 18-25 group.

              my concern is that since it never happened before, don't count on it to happen to produce victory this fall.

              and that is the only "trend" of value to compare. pointing to the rest of the data is just a  childish act of mental masturbation, which from having read your diaries around here you seem to be quite proficient at.

              "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

              by kuvasz on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:17:37 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  My masturbatory predilections aside ... (0+ / 0-)

                ...the youth vote has "classically" been categorized from 18-24, 18-25, 18-29, 18-33 and 18-34 age groups depending on who was doing the surveying or organizing.

                But what does your surly comment here have to do with my comment, which did not address the youth vote at all, but an entirely different set of cohorts?

                "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

                by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:42:48 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  snipers get sniped (0+ / 0-)

                  and neither you or the other yahoo appears to reconize that trumpeting somthing that has never happened is not something to bet on happening.

                  "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

                  by kuvasz on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:36:59 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  And you seem to have a severe reading ... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...comprehension problem to go along with your surly tongue. Where did I say anything about the youth vote other than to express hope that the youth turnout at the Iowa caucuses will be repeated next November?

                    My point was that the "Baby Boomers" - hardly the youth vote - were split into two cohorts in the 2004 election, the earlier born group that voted for Kerry and the later born group that voted for Bush.

                    "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

                    by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:33:00 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  how is that tome to me considered "nitpicking" (0+ / 0-)

                      that was your remark to my remark that the particular was not historically supported in the general.

                      My point was that the "Baby Boomers" - hardly the youth vote - were split into two cohorts in the 2004 election, the earlier born group that voted for Kerry and the later born group that voted for Bush.

                      in fact your last remark is really the one i cautioned about. but you sharpshooted me.

                      "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

                      by kuvasz on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:43:27 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  kuvasz, you seem to be confused ... (0+ / 0-)

                        ...because I made no comment whatsoever in response to you until you made your nasty remark to me.

                        My "nitpick" comment - as can easily be ascertained by clicking "parent" below my comment - was in response to Michael Connery. Not to you. It was specifically addressed to challenge this:

                        Second, youth vote increased significantly in 2004 and were the only age group to vote for Kerry over Bush.

                        But in your determination to attack you didn't notice that. On the other hand, had you been more alert, I wouldn't have been treated to your clever and gratuitious insults, so I guess all-in-all it was a net positive.

                        "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

                        by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:03:07 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

          •  you didn't answer the question, again (0+ / 0-)

            and did you change your diary title from last night?

            you are throwing up gorilla dust by proclaiming that senatorial races were won by youth voting when i actually you asked to produce data that shows it happened in a presidential election, since you are smart enough to know a senator isn't a president you ought to know a senatorial election isn't a presidential one.

            trends in local or state elections don't count because they have never been translated to national elections, besides i can produce as much a trend that in national elections that the youth vote does not affect elections.

            we are talking about national elections, and you have no evidence to show otherwise.

            on to your wearisome rhetoric....
            t

            Why is it that people like yourself require the youth vote to "swing the election" or "fail miserably."

            that is a blatant lie because i never talked about a dicothomy of swinging the election or failing miserably.

            if the only defense you have for your thesis is to place erroneous words in my mouth to defeat my argument only one of us is debating, and clearly you lost. hyperbole like yours shows a weakness of argument and it is in fact nothing but a strawman argument.

            like obama said, "you can do better." or you ought to.

            Trends say you are wrong.  Yesterday, your argument was the same as all the pundits saying that the youth wouldn't vote in Iowa.  Today they were wrong and evidence says it is very likely you are too.

            trends do no say i am wrong. you are conflating the particular to the general. and no pundit i heard said anything to the contrary.

            try to wrap this around your mind, that a state caucus is not a national election and the two can not be linked with historical data that has shown  that young voters ever made a difference.

            you act like king canute shaking his fist as the north sea tide rolls over his feet. you can't change the historical evidence that undermines your thesis.

            and the the next time you post could you finally post a link for the data that shows me a "trend" that i am wrong about the ineffectiveness of the young causing national election victories.

            "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

            by kuvasz on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:56:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  2006, Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          epcraig, Tuba Les

          Dems picked up State legislative seats around all the smaller college towns, which had been gerrymandered into previously 55% republican districts. The repubs placing their silly marriage amendment on the ballot backfired bigtime. Our at the polls registration was a big help.

          Democratic Candidate for US Senate (Wisconsin 2012)
          Court certified Marijuana Expert

          by ben masel on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:24:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  They're Facing Personal Threats No Youth Have (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, epcraig, denise b, nadeane

      faced since we boomers were kids.

      Not as much; their blacks aren't terrorized and oppressed as our blacks were, they're not drafted as we were, but they're saddled with debt we never had and they're trapped outside of opportunity as we never were.

      And they know it.

      They're going to vote.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:15:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  um, a quick look at the prison system (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Meteor Blades, Odysseus, eugene, epcraig

        and the way the war on drugs is executed in minority communities, and i'm not so sure you're right. a lynching by any other name is still a dead black man, and the treatment in prisons and those wading through the waters of nawlins are worse than fire hoses and police dogs.

        white kids are still coming around, but i suspect that black kids have known the score for quite some time.

        surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

        by wu ming on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:19:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Shameless Plug: Youth To Power (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eugene, x, ybruti, G2geek, VoteHarder, Neon Vincent

    So it's not really in my nature, but many folks tell me I'd be remiss if I didn't point out tonight, when we're seeing such incredible news for the youth vote, that for the past year I've been working on a book on this very topic: Youth To Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority

    Today's amazing turnout among young voters is a tribute to the youth efforts of the Obama campaign, but it's also a new high point for a movement to reshape progressive youth politics that has been ongoing since early 2003.  In the past year, I've had the pleasure to talk to and meet many of the drivers of that new movement, and Youth To Power chronicles the history and hints at the future directions the new progressive youth politics.  I hope you'll check it out (and help me pay my student loans).

    Here's what some people are saying:

    Michael Connery has written a spirited and savvy guide to the "Millenial" generation that is reshaping progressive youth politics.  If you want to understand the ideas, action, spirit and people building the progressive majority of our future-- read this book!

    -Katrina vanden Heuvel Editor & Publisher, The Nation

    The millennial generation is poised to have a transformative effect on American politics. Read Michael Connery's crisp, well-researched book Youth to Power to understand how and why this is likely to happen.

    --Ruy Teixeira, co-author, The Emerging Democratic Majority

    In Youth to Power, Michael Connery explains the potential impact of the Millennial Generation in politics.  His detailed research sheds new light on to the history of youth political movements and the challenge progressives face in attracting today’s rising generation of young voters

    --Neil Howe, Millennials Rising

    At last there is a definitive book about the the power and relevence of young voters in America. Michael Connery presents well researched, well thought out, highly pragmatic road map to a progressive future for America. May the gods of politics convey his clarity and vision to the minds of wandering Democrats!.

    --Danny Goldberg, author of "How The Left Lost Teen Spirit"

    Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority - Now available on Amazon.com

    by Michael Connery on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:48:15 PM PST

    •  My Mom (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nadeane, Neon Vincent

      was a Baha'i, & years ago she told me that the kids being born in the '80's & '90's are going to change the world for the better.  She said, "Your generation changed it, but they are going to finish the change."  It was a prophetic statement she was relaying, & being a sort of mystic/secular hybrid, I took it to heart & watched what the kids were up to.  Man, I never ceased to be impressed.  They are smarter, more compassionate, more inclusive than even we bleeding heart boomers ever were.

      If you go back & assess the changes we started, boy howdy, today's kids are going to evolve humanity a quantum leap, brothers & sisters.

      I hope that my generations' efforts & battles contributed to it, so we're not remembered as "Me" people.

      You kids are awesome

      War is outdated. Dalai Lama

      by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:23:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better than the boomers? (0+ / 0-)

        That's a pretty lukewarm endorsement.

        - Gen X.

        •  Oh please. (0+ / 0-)

          Don't re-write boomer history.  Go back to 1968.  We changed the world.  The RW is still pissed off about it.  GenX is the "Me" people/young Repubs.  But let's not start a generation flamewar.

          War is outdated. Dalai Lama

          by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 05:07:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, yall certainly added a lot of (0+ / 0-)

            shitty music to the Time/Life Music of the 20th Century collection, I'll give you that.  That's kind of like changing the world.

            •  So you're a Gen X (0+ / 0-)

              Me first, Me only, Me Me Me who made great music?

              Give me a break.  You are the Yuppie Generation.  Bitter & greedy.

              Old Deaniacs never die. They fight on for Democratic values.

              by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:27:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Time Life music collection?!? (0+ / 0-)

              Typical.  Grow up. It's a miracle if you know your ass from your elbow.

              Hint: Your brain is between your ears, and heart is not necessarily the muscle between your ribs.

              And it's not all about you.

              Wake up & get to work.  You're wasting everybody's time.

              Old Deaniacs never die. They fight on for Democratic values.

              by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 11:05:34 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think that the boomers will be judged (0+ / 0-)

            Not by what they did in 1968, but what they did over their whole lives. If they don't help work with us younger folks to produce change here in the '00s and '10s, then history is likely to see the boomers negatively - a group that had some effect in the Sixties but lost their way as they got older. But if boomers DO help us, then they'll be seen as a generation committed to change at the beginning and the end of their lives.

            As a historian of the 1960s, and as an early millennial (born in 1979) I think the boomers sometimes get too much credit for the Sixties - many people active and in key roles were much older, in their 50s and 60s (like Dave Dellinger or Saul Alinsky or the Kennedys). Certainly they deserve some credit, don't get me wrong, but neither should they assume that their historical role is at an end. They still have work to do.

            I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

            by eugene on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:04:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  We have some work to do? (0+ / 0-)

              No, you have some work to do.  You want us wiping your asses till you're forty & figure out maybe you should do some work for a change?

              Blow it out your ear.

              Old Deaniacs never die. They fight on for Democratic values.

              by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 10:31:35 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Boomers don't deserve (0+ / 0-)

              credit or blame, nor does any generation. Individuals can be judged by what they do, but we're also all subject to greater forces that aren't under anyone's control.

              I'm SO SICK of boomers bragging about what they think "they" did, and younger people thinking boomers as a group are responsible for everything happening in the world. It's simplistic, illogical, and to boot ageist.

              As an historian, don't you think you should have a more penetrating view? I doubt if any historian 100 years from now is going to attribute any significance to whether people were born in 1940 or 1946.

        •  Please don't start (0+ / 0-)

          this generational bullshit. It serves no purpose and it's stupid.

  •  Winter Break! (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades, x, sxp151, G2geek, elie, nadeane

    In many colleges, it's still winter break, the students are home, there is no need to change registration or get an absentee ballot.

    The first Tuesday on November is different.

    We have to seriously organize to make sure young people follow through in November. My own boy, who is supposedly seriously interested in political things, totally whiffed last November and thought he was registered up there in college when in reality he was registered only in his home town.  

  •  Exciting (5+ / 0-)

    Every single Democrat should be encouraged by the number of young people that came out tonight. They are ready for change and I am damn proud of them for making their voices heard.  As a mother to 4 kids in that age group, who are active voter's, I feel a little proud tonight.

    "Hope is that thing inside us that insists...that something better awaits us if we have the courage to fight for it." --Barack Obama

    by loree920 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:50:46 PM PST

    •  I am very proud too! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      loree920

       Obama has a lot of "Independent" and disenfranchised voters waiting to vote for him in the general election in our crucial Tampa Bay area too!  Most are socially liberal and should be registered in the Democratic Party but have despised the Clinton and Bush administrations for their devisiveness and their corporate/MIC ties.  Obama is bringing them "home" to the Democratic Party and I am damn happy and proud this morning.  I slept early and easy last night.  Thanks Iowa! .....My National Guard Staff Sgt. son just may be able to finish his 20 year, 2nd career instead of extending one year at a time, worrying about another criminal/corrupt war-mongering administration sending him to another pre-emptive war.  Obama is going to be a wonderful President!

  •  I couldn't agree more. n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nadeane
  •  The under 30 vote is the generation (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, x, nadeane

    that learned how to use the net to empower themselves against corporate and government bureaucracy.  Unlike any generation since the Peace Corps generation, they really believe that they can change the world and can provide tangible evidence to back up the claims.  

    I believe it is a smarter generation than those of past years.  In short, young voters are voting more because they are smarter and understand what is at stake for themselves and the world.  

    If young people continue to turnout in higher numbers, that will throw all assumptions out the window about who can win the Presidency.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 11:54:59 PM PST

    •  Hmmmmm... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Janet Strange, nadeane

      If young people continue to turnout in higher numbers, that will throw all assumptions out the window about who can win the Presidency.

      As someone from one of those older, stupider generations, I hope your above comment turns out to be right. In other words, I hope the turnout of 18-to-29- year-olds next November repeats what happened in Iowa last night. If the youth vote beats the largest (percentage) youth vote on record - 1972 - I don't think you'll find many of us in those earlier generations complaining about it.

      "Just remember, boys, this is America. Just because you get more votes doesn't mean you win." - Special Agent Fox Mulder

      by Meteor Blades on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:27:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It has alot to do with the candidate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    x, sxp151

    My friends are so excited about Obama.  But, won't vote for any other Democrat.  It is upsetting, but they like Obama and then Huckabee.  

    •  Talk to them (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nadeane

      One-on-one is as important as candidates, speeches & soaring rhetoric.  It's not about a candidate, it's about you & what you can do in the world.

      You can change the world.  It's your destiny.

      War is outdated. Dalai Lama

      by x on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:31:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Huckabee is very dangerous (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Neon Vincent

      He might be the hardest to beat in a general election. Despite being batshit crazy, he's got that Kevin-Spacey-in-Kpax sort of dorky charm, which (despite their better judgment) makes voters trust him. And this is true despite all of the issues: he sometimes talks like John Edwards, and that's enough to make him seem to cancel us out on many issues. Low-information voters think Huckabee's universal health care plan is as good as whoever our nominee is, despite the fact that Huckabee doesn't have one (he just says it sucks that people don't have health care).

      Unless the Dumond story gets a lot more play, or unless the tax-obsessed Republicans in other states derail him, I'm quite worried about him.

  •  Sign Me Up For "Hippies for American Youth!!" (6+ / 0-)

    Remember, when we were excited about JFK and RFK, they weren't "our" generation, they were an older generation to us. It wasn't that they were young, it was that they were modern and with-it.

    We were able to look older to the Kennedies and McGovern when we were kids; we can look to younger leaders and the younger generations now that we're older.

    Years ago, Democrats stopped doing everything sane and necessary.

    Let's hope the many facets of Obama's win and his youth new-voter appeal deals a major head-blow to the political geometry of DLC style campaign practice.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:05:03 AM PST

  •  Obama Should Get A Huge Bounce In NH. At Least (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    G2geek, Tuba Les

    10 to 15 points my gut tells me and the sky is the limit.

  •  Relevant Andrew Sullivan item (10+ / 0-)

    Tonight was in many ways devastating news for the GOP. Twice as many people turned out for the Democrats than the Republicans. Clearly independents prefer the Dems.

    Now look at how the caucus-goers defined themselves in the entrance polls. Among the Dems: Very Liberal: 18 percent; Somewhat Liberal: 36 percent; Moderate: 40 percent; Conservative: 6 percent. Now check out the Republicans: Very Conservative: 45 percent; Somewhat Conservative: 43 percent; Moderate: 11 percent; Liberal: 1 percent.

    One is a national party; the other is on its way to being an ideological church. The damage Bush and Rove have done - revealed in 2006 - is now inescapable.

    We have won the political center.

    Barack Obama. Because we can do better.

    by poblano on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:14:13 AM PST

  •  watch the party work overtime to kill the buzz (0+ / 0-)

    before this new cohort of voters gets uppity and think they deserve a say in things.

    i have deep misgivinbgs about obama, but the people he inspire will take on a life of their own, the way that the dean, jackson and mccarthy campaigns once did, and will resonate in elections to come.

    same reason why i dread a huckabee candidacy; all those dominionists getting the experience and hope means more problems down the line as precinct volunteers become local candidates in subsequent elections.

    surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

    by wu ming on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:23:09 AM PST

    •  Look to Kansas and be glad. (4+ / 0-)

      The dominionists vote in the primaries in huge numbers. And there was a time when moderate Republicans would vote for any religious nut because of the R by his name.

      That time has passed, and Kansas is your proof. A hugely Republican, but mostly moderate state. The fundamentalists nominate their fundamentalist candidates in the primaries, and the moderates vote Democratic. It's how I, in a district that went 65% for Bush in 2004, have a Democratic congresswoman, and in a state that went over 60% for Bush, a Democratic governor.

      It's certainly a fight to get the daily Rush listener to vote for someone with a D next to their name, but every time the Republican candidate says "Evolution shouldn't be taught in schools," or "Abortion should be criminalized," they rally their 10-20% base (which is enough for a nomination in a sparsely-attended primary) and alienate the other 80-90% of the people.

  •  overcoming the 1/3 date (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    x, nadeane

    is a hell of an accomplishment.
    hats off to you, young Iowa voters.

    also, GOOD CANDIDATES go a long way. the disparity between participation in D and R caucuses underscores it perfectly.

  •  Congrats to Obama, but in reality... (0+ / 0-)

    ...Obama spent 9 million (2 million more than Hillary) to get 2 extra delegates of the 2,184 needed.

    Clinton '08 // Putting People First

    by Berkeley Vox on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:44:31 AM PST

  •  So Will They Show Up in Nov... (0+ / 0-)

    ...if "rock star" Obama is not the nominee -  like real democrats?

    Barack Obama: Bringing Nuclear Power to a Town Near You!

    by demwords on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 12:48:54 AM PST

    •  They showed up in 2004 and 2006 so i don't see... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      epcraig, MNPundit

      why they wouldn't. Let's not forget that in 2004 the youth vote was up significantly and it was one of the only major groups to go for  Kerry over Bush. YDA points this out a lot because it's something to be proud of. Reports on the 2006 elections again showed an increase in youth voters and they're voting with us. It shouldn't be suprising that it's happening again and there's no reason to believe it won't happen again in '08.

  •  Do I detect a preponderance of bruised boomer ego (5+ / 0-)

    buried in the retorts in some of these posts?

    C'mon, please...  

    I would think that the term "progressive majority" would salve any perceived encroachment upon the almighty boomer id.

    The political engagement of the millenials is a rising trend and I would hope that it's welcomed--so can we stop with the "I did it first" crap?

    "There's been a little complication with my complication"

    by dash888 on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:13:16 AM PST

  •  Weirdest Demographic Result (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hhex65, LI Mike, Neon Vincent

    Click here for numbers from CNN. Scroll down to "Vote by Ideology." How the heck does this happen:

    		 Clinton Edwards Obama
    Very Liberal	 24	 16	 40*
    Somewhat Liberal 25	 25	 36*
    Moderate	 31	 22	 33*
    Conservative	 22	 42*	 21

    Edwards solidly won the conservative vote and solidly lost the very liberal vote? Edwards clearly has the most progressive rhetoric among the three. Did very-liberals just get more excited by Obama for whatever reason (change agent, rock star, first black president, etc.) while conservatives found Edwards to be the safest choice (Southern white son of a millworker who really loves Iowa)? This just really surprised me, and I thought many others here would be surprised as well.

    For the record, Obama won the Republican vote (and Democratic and independent vote -- though he almost lost the Democratic vote to Hillary, which would have looked pretty bad).

    •  That looked better in preview (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tuba Les, LI Mike

      I'll try again:

      		 Clinton Edwards Obama
      Very Liberal	 24	 16	 40*
      Somewhat Liberal   25	 25	 36*
      Moderate		  31	 22	 33*
      Conservative	 22	 42*	 21
      

    •  Rhetoric doesn't matter as much as you'd think (0+ / 0-)

      There are two things about Edwards that a lot of his supporters don't discuss. I don't know how much they influence voters, but they exist.

      1. His record as a Senator was very conservative for a Democrat. He cosponsored the Iraq war resolution, he supported fast-track trade negotiation authority, and he supported the right-to-work law in North Carolina. His newfound progressiveness just doesn't seem that convincing. However, this relies on someone having a lot of information about his Senate record, and most voters don't. Which brings us to...
      1. He's the Southern white guy in the race. Like it or not, a lot of people look at him as the "Good Old Boy" candidate. People who are less comfortable voting for a woman or a black man (or perhaps more importantly, who think the country is not ready to vote for someone like that) support him as the safe choice. Certainly I don't believe he's done anything to encourage this, and I don't think he's happy to be that candidate, but I believe he is in the eyes of a lot of people. To me that totally explains why older and more conservative people supported him.
  •  even better and a caution (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    denise b, LI Mike

    In terms of numbers, YDD says NBC said the turnout was more like 265,000.  So even better!

    My caution is this: it's great to emphasize the people who came through.  But this is not an either/or, us v. them moment.  I don't want to hear about bitter baby boomers, or from bitter baby boomers if such exist.  I'm about six weeks older than Bill Clinton, and I think the huge youth vote is great.  And young women were key. But I saw on another site a woman writing "look out middle aged white men, it ain't no fun when the rabbit's got the gun." So I can't rejoice with you that young women got involved and behind Obama?  I don't want to hear this.  It's unbecoming and self-defeating...and it's un-Obama as well.    

    "The end of all intelligent analysis is to clear the way for synthesis." H.G. Wells "It's not dark yet, but it's getting there." Bob Dylan

    by Captain Future on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 01:42:43 AM PST

  •  IOWA has a large black population (0+ / 0-)

    Right?

    Actually, I think that's the story here. Obama has the ability to attrack across the entire spectrum. People get excited and he brings them INTO the process. This is the best news for the Democrats. People that have been turned off in the past are now getting involved.

    "Vice President Cheney is expanding the administration's policy on torture to include tortured logic" Sen. Dick Durbin D-IL

    by Tuba Les on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:05:29 AM PST

    •  2,5% concentrated in Des Moines almost 4% his. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tuba Les

      ...I'd like to see the hispanic vote totals. As I encountered when I talked to my hardcore dem of a mother (with some definite basis in personal experience, a black student fraudulently tried to get her fired last year) hispanics have antipathy to blacks.

      There's something attractive about invincible ignorance... for the first 5 seconds.

      by MNPundit on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:18:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  why hillary is scared (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    epcraig

    several reports from caucus goers, Huff, CNN, and others all noted that the Hillarians were old, moldy and not at all excited. Edwards folks seemed middle of the road, and Obama's folks seemed energized, young, and exciting.

    Youth, energy, excitement, change - all the things that the DLCer in this race, Hillary, is not.
    She eked out 29%, reflecting a large segment of population that really does not like her or trust her.

    Her message, 35 yrs of experience for change? what a pathetic POS that is. And when you add on the DLC, her voting record, her pro-war views and her refusal to take on Bush during the first term, the chasm that opened up in front of her feet suddenly seems huge.

    240,000 came out on a cold evening and Hillary had no chance.

    Watch for that Obama youth movement start to infect other states.

    Watch for Hillary to test out three new "campaign" tactics, much like her I'm just a girl transmorgifying into I'm picking picked on, changing to I've 35 yrs of experience of change. A new label and poster won't do it. Only change at the top.
    Watch for Bill to disappear away from the limelight, much to his chagrin. Watch for at least one, perhaps, two major firings at the top. Watch her grasp for something in desperation, while missing the major point. People do NOT want a DLCer back in office. By the time she picks up on that message, this election season will have passed her by.

    In the United States, doing good has come to be, like patriotism, a favorite device of persons with something to sell. - Mencken

    by agnostic on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 02:15:48 AM PST

    •  Ah, the spin (0+ / 0-)

      from people who weren't there.  It was the opposite at my caucus.  The Edwards and Hillary people were excited and roving around to talk to other caucus-goers and they convinced lots of people to join their camps.  Except for their captain, the Obama people sat in an inward-facing circle and were kind of quiet and kept to themselves - not because they were new and unsure of the process, because after all, Edwards had a large swath of people in their 20s and Hillary had some as well.  Also, most and perhaps all the Dodd, Biden and Richardson people joined either Hillary or Edwards.

  •  The college break factor (0+ / 0-)

    This will be hard to measure, but I wonder if Obama did well precisely because the caucus was so early, during college break. Many students register to vote at home (especially when they follow their parents' political affiliations), not at college (where they're usually less invested in the local issues).

    Considering that Iowa doesn't have many in-state colleges, I'd expect that a lot of Iowa-native young people would normally live outside the state during a mid-January caucus and therefore would not be helpful to a campaign.

    The opposite issue is that many of the students who are in Iowa colleges come from neighboring states like Illinois, so if they were motivated behind a candidate, it's not nearly as hard for them to travel back to Iowa during break as it is for an Iowan student attending Stanford.

    Based on those two factors, I'd think a candidate who could take advantage of myspace buzz and such to get students interested would do better in an early-caucus year than otherwise.

  •  asdf (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ybruti, LI Mike

    I really hope that Democrats look at the results and see what people want most is change.  In 2004 we voted for change but nothing really happened.  Reid and Pelosi were not very effective and the Bush administration gets its way despite the election results.  Now, the people in Iowa showed they are not giving up on change, just not voting for the same old same old.  Clinton represents the same old same old.  Even Edwards, who had a lot less money and less boots on the ground, beat her.  I also think the old school media have no idea what is coming.  I have three very savvy 20 something children, who are extremely smart and a lot more plugged into what is going on in the world than I was at that age.  Young people are more tolerant, more worldly, and more liberal than ever.  (I know I have said this before but) There is a change coming, a change in the world, and it won't be because of our generation, it will be the one coming up.  There is hope for the future.

    * 3907 * http://icasualties.org/oif/

    by BDA in VA on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 03:09:49 AM PST

  •  How Strong is Obama's Support? (0+ / 0-)

    That's the real question.  Not just among young voters.

    Obama's campaign did a great job in Iowa, it's probably enough to get them a victory in NH as well.

    But then things are going to start to get real.  And, at some point, Obama's going do something that will make his supporters cringe.

    Will they stick with him?

    He's run a pretty nebulous campaign.  At some point, saying Change 17 times a sentence isn't going to be enough.  Will the specifics be as exciting to Obama supporters as the vague call for change?

    Past history says no.  Is this another trend Obama's campaign will buck?  Only time will tell.

  •  I was a naysayer. (0+ / 0-)

    I was wrong, and I'm glad for it.  I thought Barack Obama was in trouble because of his reliance of young voters, who have a track record of not turning out.  Well, they turned out this time, bless them all.

    Young voters have changed since I was one of them.  When I was a young voter, back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, many of my fellow teenagers and fellow people in their early twenties didn't bother and weren't interested.  Keep up the good work!

    A conservative is just a liberal who hasn't needed a second chance yet.

    by Larry McAwful on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:14:01 AM PST

    •  I wouldn't get too excited (0+ / 0-)

      Young voters have rallied and faded before.

      The real test would be if they stick with the Democratic party if Obama loses.  If they do, that's important.

      If they don't, this will just be a repeat of stuff we've seen in the past.

    •  I was a naysayer, too (0+ / 0-)

      Time and time again, Progressives have gotten beat because they relied on the "Youth Vote" or "New Voters".  These groups just have not, historically, been able to go the distance.

      But if these numbers are right, it looks like we have some good news finally.

      Remember that the Iowa processs involves a big time commitment...more so than the General Election.  If Obama could get this group away from their pizza and beer and MP3s for a whole evening, then I know it can be done in November.

      I am so very glad to have been proved wrong about youth turnout.  This is good news for our party.

    •  David Brooks was a naysayer, too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Theghostofkarlafayetucker

      On the Newshour last night, Brooks cynically suggested that the youth vote wouldn't turn out for Obama.  You see, he says he overheard three young people at an Obama rally, and two of them said, "Nah, dude" when asked whether they would turn out.  Why, that makes "only" 33% turnout according to Brooks' very scientific sampling!

      We have to get more people to speak out within earshot of David Brooks so we can throw off his mumbled prognistications and make him look ridiculous.

      "You know, I'm an evangelical Republican, but I just can't trust Huckabee."

      "Now that Dodd and Biden are out of the race, I'm just not going to vote in November."

      "Iraq isn't an issue for me.  Healthcare isn't either, and I don't care about global warming.  The only thing that counts to me is a candidate's position on stem cell research."

      Ibuntu. Do Ubuntu 2?

      by bizutti on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 07:47:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Young voters DID turn out in 04 - corpmedia LIED (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      epcraig, denise b

      to help distract from another stolen election.

  •  This is a great account of a caucus! (0+ / 0-)

    If you want to get a feel for the difference in the campaigns this is a great anecdote.  And if you did not appreciate the depth of the Clinton machine, read this....

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    "We will now proceed to construct the socialist order."

    by 7November on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 04:32:05 AM PST

  •  CONGATULATIONS TO IOWA AGAIN! (0+ / 0-)

    America should congratulate Iowans for doing their duty again, that is, picking the worst possible Democratic candidate, as they have done frequently including John Kerry in 2004. Part of the problem is the crazy Iowa caucus system, but the biggest factor is allowing Republicans to help pick the Democrat who they think is easiest to defeat. Someday, just maybe, America will have a primary system where the real swing states (right now FLORIDA and OHIO) decide who the candidate is? Of course, that would be logical, meaningful and ridiculous. Now instead, we get the government we deserve!

  •  The Youth don't vote in November - period. (0+ / 0-)

    Since the 60's, with Vietnam, the draft, etc, the 18-30 yr old cohort have yet to deliver for any candidate in the November election.  They surrounded Humphrey and didnt deliver.  They surrounded McGovern in '72, after four more yrs of Vietnam and didnt deliver for him either.

    And so on since.  Remember "Rock the Vote?"  Flash forward to 2004 and the US Census says...

    "Citizens age 65 and older had the highest registration rate (79 percent) while those age 18 to 24 had the lowest (58 percent). The youngest group also had the lowest voting rate (47 percent), while those age 45 and older had the highest turnout (about 70 percent)."

    The naysayers have every right to sit back and wait to be proven wrong.  And precinct captains in all the upcoming states have every reason to be highly suspicious of the youth vote as well.

    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect -- Mark Twain.

    by dcrolg on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 06:22:56 AM PST

    •  It's a New Day (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      epcraig

      The status quo wasn't the choice in Iowa-- Democrat or GOP. And, the youth vote was impressive and unprecedented. That's good for democracy-- and what happened even two or four ago is irrelevant today. In the new digital era young voters are engaging and by last night's results, in the one state we've seen-- they spoke loudly against the status quo which has disenfranchised them in the past-- and for a change in the DC beat.

      Looking in the past is like driving while watching the rear view mirror.

      I'm betting on the youth to vote, to support candidates who reject the status quo and inject some vitality and reality into our democracy.

      The candidates who can authentically embrace that kind of change will attract youth, middle-aged and senior voters. America has had enough of the same-- and wants new vision.

      My name is Jim Neal and I'm going to be the next US Senator from North Carolina. Mark my word-- and note my conviction from day one to being a part of changing a system which ain't working.

      jim
      www.JimNealforSenate.com

      •  I'm in NC to support you, but you're mistaken (0+ / 0-)

        saying 2004 was status quo.

        There was a reason many in the Dem powerstructure didn't support or back up Kerry throughout 2003-4. He's an open government Democrat who uncovered and exposed more serious government corruption during his tenure than any lawmaker in modern history. Kerry would have opened the books that had been closed by Bill Clinton in his efforts to protect the secrecy and privilege of Poppy Bush and his cronies.

        Running for the senate, you should be fully aware that as a voter I will be EXPECTING you to take the opportunity to pursue corruption and advocate for open government issues.

        Many talk the talk, but VERY FEW have ever walked the walk and taken the risks - John Kerry is at the top of that list.

        Here's some serious points to consider about how the Dem powerplayers operated:

        http://www.depauw.edu/...

        http://www.cnn.com/...

        http://www.tpmcafe.com/...

        http://www.youtube.com/...

        http://consortiumnews.com/...

    •  But (0+ / 0-)

      Young people didn't support Humphrey in '68. The Democrats were who got us into the war, and at least among the people I knew cynicism was pervasive. They didn't stay home because they didn't care or because it was November - they did it deliberately because they thought there was no difference between the parties.

      My first election would have been in '72, but I don't remember anymore whether I actually voted - I do remember being on the fence about it. Both parties were to blame for the war, and after 7 years of protesting I was thoroughly jaded. I know I voted in '76, when I was 27, and ever election since, but in '72 I think it had less to do with my age than the events of the times.

  •  Thank God for things like this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    epcraig

    And Democracy For America's Campus Corps, the only group in the United States that is dedicated towards a youth progressive movement (Note: I'm the head of the Florida International University Chapter of Campus Corps).

  •  Great diary and very interesting. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Janet Strange

    2004 was a rough haul for all of us.  But it is nice to see that 2004 actually was the beginning of a movement, one that may create a sustainable Democratic majority in this country after a conservative era that started with Reagan, which dominated my adult life.

    And little did we know, that the seeds of victory of '06, and hopefully '08, were planted in '04.  That is incredible.

  •  Returning From The Caucus, Listening To The Radio (0+ / 0-)

    My girlfriend became rather depressed when she realized that she is no longer a part of the 17-29 age bracket.  Now she's in 30-44.  So, she caucused for Obama, but not as a "young person."

    "Ron Paul robocalled my girlfriend." - Me

    by toyourleft on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 07:41:56 AM PST

  •  At War=Youth Voter turnout! (0+ / 0-)

    The Youth vote is making a difference in this election just as the voices of the Youth made a difference in changing the direction of the war in Vietnam in the '70's!  Vote for a Change that WILL make a Difference!  Obama '08

  •  And that Future Progressive Majority... (0+ / 0-)

    is backing Obama.  I would hope the rest of the 'progressive' blogoshpere would as well.

  •  As a former young voter (0+ / 0-)

    I applaud this development. I was disappointed in how apathetic my generation turned out to be, and at how many of them lined up behind Reagan, against their own best interests, in the 1980s.

  •  Raised by an Atheist (0+ / 0-)

    I wonder when the pugs are going to start launching this pseudo fact about Obama.  The lie about him being a Muslim didn't work.  But this one might.

    Obama's victory in Iowa was impressive.  Let's hope he has the backbone to stand up to the opposition when the real lies, half-truths and smears come out.

    His Democratic opponents won't do this.  But the pugs definitely will.

  •  Iowa's Young voters? How many live there or near? (1+ / 3-)
    Recommended by:
    heineken1717
    Hidden by:
    doinaheckuvanutjob, expatyank, james risser

    It seems another loop-hole has distorted our system of electing, reading the pulse of the people and was abused to put Obama ahead.  It seems many of these young voters live in and go to school in near-by states, they live in from nearby states, came and made mayhem.  Ironically I am reading about Bleeding Kansas, this was bleeding Iowa, as American Idolaizing imature young folks are playimng the nation.  
    Young ruffians came and altered the voting record.  Truth is always stranger than fiction.  Facts are always hidden in hype.

  •  The current "youth" may be lining up again (0+ / 0-)

    against their best interests.  Obama has been double-talking a lot.  Change? Not so sure.  In the long run, if Obama proves to be just more of the same DC Villager, then down the road they will not see the improvements they want or need.  Not to mention the rest of us.

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