Why Barack Obama Will Win

I've been watching the race very closely and have some thoughts about Why Obama can and will win.

Watching the reports after Iowa  convinced me. They are saying that Hillary has to change her message to  either attack Obama or be more likeable. Edwards has a strong message that resonates in some parts of the country, but not others.
 On the Republican side, Huckabee has to talk about different things in NH than he did in Iowa. McCain is popular in independent NH, but not popular with the Republican Base. Mitt Romney says all the right things but nobody believes him.

Barack Obama is the only candidate who can go to all 50 states with the same message, the same speech, and still win. I think what we are witnessing is the beginning of a real grass roots movement. The people are going to take their government back, and Barack Obama is going to help them.

I am not naive. I don't think Barack Obama can walk on water. I don't think he will solve all of our problems with his personality, Or that he will "nice people to death"

 I do think for the first time in my lifetime that  we have an opportunity for the country to be united in a greater cause. We overcame the Great Depression by pulling together. We won WW2 by uniting the country to win it.  It is going to take that kind of effort to fix what has been broken over the last 8 years. This does not mean that I think there won't be critics, or that the Republicans won't do everything they can to stop it. It does mean that I think, once a majority of the country is on board, it will be unstoppable. Just like the "New Deal" helped get us out of the depression. The entire country involved in the war effort in WW2,  Like "Rosie the Riveter" and factories converted for the war effort, and rationing. Everybody took part in it, and we won.

I don't think it will be easy. I do think it is possible. I'm inspired. I'm optimistic.
I HOPE.

•  Tips for hope?

  by atlliberal on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 07:55:04 AM PDT

  •  re:Simple but Powerful Point

    It's been both conventional wisdom and fact for a lot of election cycles that candidates have to tack to the Left or the Right, depending upon their party, during primaries, then tack to the center for the general election.  Will Obama break that mold?

    by deminva on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:23:43 AM PDT

    •  I think so

      He is already attracting the Independents and some republicans with the message he has  in the primary. Why change it? The reason they are attracted to it is not because they agree with him on everything, it's because he doesn't change his stands on issues to suit the audience. They believe he is honest, and different.

      by atlliberal on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:32:42 AM PDT

      •  re:Right

        And whereas Howard Dean was unafraid to be candid, it was too easy to selectively present his views as far-Left.  He also had a much hotter aura that was easy to mistake for anger.

        You know, some folks 'round these parts who support other candidates criticize Obama as being short on substance.  Substance matters greatly to me.  But the most important decision most voters make is whether or not they can see a candidate as president.  In that regard, Obama's temperament and demeanor are far from unsubstantial considerations.

        by deminva on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:45:28 AM PDT

        •  I liked Howard Dean

          I think he didn't win because some people saw him as too angry. (I think he had every right to be)

          Obama is not short on substance, but you don't win elections ONLY by having the right policies. Otherwise we would have had President Dukakis, President Gore, and President Kerry.

          by atlliberal on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:52:16 AM PDT

          •  re:Exactly

            I'm reminded of Adlai Stevenson response upon being told that he had the vote of every thinking American: "That's not enough!"

            by deminva on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:00:24 AM PDT

            •  LOL

              It's a guaranteed win if you can get the
              NON-THINKING Americans to vote for you.

              by atlliberal on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:02:54 AM PDT

              •  re:As Amply Illustrated

                in 2000 and 2004.

                by deminva on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:15:06 AM PDT

•  And I am even more hopeful while

  looking at this gigantic Obama crowd in NH this a.m.-----it is amazing.  Looks like a movement to me.  And if he can pull it out in NH, which is looking ever more likely, it's Katy bar the door!

  by dotster on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:00:02 AM PDT

  •  It's truly amazing

    by atlliberal on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:02:00 AM PDT

•  My understanding 5 diff HRC ads running in NH

  Plus 80% of Saturday eat up in private voter sessions, Bill doing the Sat stumping.

  Message? Hillary is Hillary's problem, not Obama.

  Here's an excellent NPRSaturday report at 7:05am about last nights $100 NH dinner...

  http://www.npr.org/...

  by Theghostofkarlafayetucker on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 08:02:29 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for the link.

    It is a good NPR report.

    by ybruti on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:27:21 AM PDT

    •  Here's a fascinating NYT editorial

      "What would Hillary Rodham do?" http://www.nytimes.com/...

      by ybruti on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 09:35:46 AM PDT