Barack Obama - The Strategist
Can Barack Obama take on tough opponents and win? My belief is yes. From my reading, he's just taken on Hillary and Bill Clinton and it looks like he's winning. I would submit that few sights in American politics are more frightening than facing the Clinton machine in a Democratic primary.
But that's not the key insight. Not only has he held his own, he's done it with a gutsy and unconventional strategy. He has set out to attract new voters and independents, people who weren't part of the standard Democratic 'base'. To do this, he chose the riskiest tack of all - an upbeat emotional appeal. This is risky because that sort of emotional appeal to the typical Democratic base would expose his supporters to vigorous negative assaults from his competitors. This, in fact, has already happened - just as it happens to the base supporters for every candidate.
However, the new members of Obama's base are not so easily targeted by the other campaigns. They aren't on anyone else's mailing list. They aren't coming from well-understood and predictable ideological groups. The other campaigns don't know who they are and don't know which buttons to push to turn them off. They are, in fact, a stealth electorate - much like the Deaniacs of 2004. Passionate, eager - but largely anonymous as individuals - except to the Obama campaign.
The real test of a strategist is when things don't go well. Poor strategists stick slavishly to the plan or flail around for a quick fix. Good strategists have the self-confidence, flexibility and tenacity to make the minimum number of essential adjustments. Obama's test came this summer, when he was hovering around 20% and Hillary seemed headed north of 40%. Everyone foresaw a Clinton coronation once the perfunctory primaries were over. I recall a lot of pundits advising Obama to break with his 'crazy' campaign of hope and engage in hardball tactical infighting. He did a little bit - just enough to limit her gains - but he never abandoned his larger message. He kept pounding that strategic message of hope and unity home and patiently waited for it to grab hold. In Iowa, it did.
Obama is now trying to convince the Democratic party that his strategy can apply on a national scale. If he is the nominee this fall, he has vowed to continue building the coalition of hope - attracting more idealistic young voters and pragmatic independents. These are voters that aren't on Karl Rove's radar. They don't listen to Fox. They don't belong to any union. They haven't joined a PAC. No one, other than the Democratic nominee's campaign, will know who they are. Their invisibility will make them strangely immune to the right-wing slime machine. Sure, they can be reached with TV ads, but that's costly and the Republicans are hurting for cash. Obama can counter quickly and decisively with low-cost text messages, emails and YouTube. When Nov. comes, the Republicans won't know what hit them.
But winning the election is only the smallest part of the strategy. The real challenge will be governing. This is where Obama is really audacious. He has spoken often about building the coalition to support a governing agenda of real change. His view is that any substantive change will face tremendous resistance and opposition. The only way to overcome that resistance is to build a bank of national political capital (i.e. emotion) that can pay the huge bills that will come due. Moreover, he needs to keep that capital safe until the time is right to spend it. We have seen too often how establishment infighting can fritter away that priceless capital - long before it buys any substantive work.
What safer bank than the hearts and minds of an army of committed progressives, passionate young Americans and pragmatic independents? Once again, the enemies of change must find them before they can disillusion them. With Obama's solid oratorical skills and a clear plan, it won't be easy to unsell them from their hopes and ideals - be it for health care, solutions to global warming, energy independence, fiscal responsibility, or foreign reputation. Of course, the right wing can succeed if he screws up, but otherwise it will be a real tough challenge. O'Reilly, Limbaugh, Malkin, Coulter. Gingrich and Hannity are way out of their league.
Of course, there will be some attrition and devaluation of his initial political currency. But it should be less than for the opposing side. Gender, generational and ethnic fault lines will all shift slowly and inexorably against the right wing agenda. The ranks of the young will expand with new energy, while bitter, aged conservatives will dwindle and tire. Latinos and Blacks will find new voice and excitement, while rural conservatives will become more shrill and irritable. Women will feel empowered as their agenda is restored. In 2012, these shifts will have chipped away a bit at the conservative base. By 2016, that base will look like Swiss cheese.
Obama will also have an advantage that Bill Clinton never had. He will face real challenges and real enemies right from the start. Bill Clinton doesn't get the credit for the halcyon days of 1990s that most Democrats think he should. But, truth be told, he didn't have that hard a task. A lot of world and domestic factors conspired in America's favor. The Cold War ended and America invented the Internet. Peace broke out and prosperity reigned. Bill did a really great job but, deep down, most Americans know that Bill was never tested to anywhere near his prodigious capacity. Perhaps if he had been, he wouldn't have had time for Monica.
Obama will be tested to his ultimate limit. His strategy will be tested. His stamina will be tested. His judgment will be tested. His focus and concentration will be tested. His leadership will be tested. If he can pass the inevitable early tests, he will be able to replenish and multiply his political capital in a way that will allow him to reinvest it in truly transformative change. It could be the stuff of a new FDR. I hope/believe/pray that he will face the right challenges and make the right calls.
I have no idea whether any of this is Obama's strategy as he has envisions it. I can only infer strategic thinking from the revealed actions of the candidate and his campaign. However, if I have gotten even a part of this right, his strategy is bold and daring. It suggests to me that he is a born strategist and he is swinging for the fences. The risk is that it will be a long out instead of a grand slam.
John Edwards - The Warrior
John Edwards knows what's wrong with America. He understands that a small number of people have amassed enormous wealth and power that they enjoy selfishly and short-sightedly. They are perfectly willing to sacrifice the futures of America's children, grandchildren - indeed the world's grandchildren, so they can indulge their own appetites. Edwards understands that these people do not care. Edwards understands that they are stubborn, narcissistic and 'entitled' to get their own way. He also understands that they are incurious about anything that might disturb their comfort and complacency.
John Edwards knows that these people will never yield or compromise. They see no reason - neither moral nor practical - to do so. The only question is whether they will win or lose. John Edwards intends to make them lose. That's what a pit-bull trial lawyer does. He makes the bastards lose. The Edwards' (Elizabeth is just as much a fighter as he is) have asked the American people to join them in the fight. They have issued the clarion call for troops and supplies and good wishes.
John Edwards also knows that there are huge numbers of Americans that are willing to fight. They are called the middle class. He knows that there are wonderful people working in and for big corporations, in small companies, in government agencies, in the military, in small towns and big cities. These people care about America just as much as he does. He knows that there are Southern Evangelicals that are sickened by Abramoff. He knows that there are Boston bluebloods that watched Katrina in horror. He knows that there are people on the left coast, right coast and in flyover America that are itching for a righteous battle - if only there was a Warrior that they could follow.
Edwards' campaign, from day one, has been designed to convince Americans that he is America's Warrior. He has laid out his plan of attack and he has never backed off or backed down. He smiles a lot, but it would be a real fool that would mistake that smile for a lack of resolve. It's especially sad and ironic that Elizabeth's battle with cancer has offered tangible proof in his/their courage.
However, Edwards knows that courage and passion aren't enough. He's a world-class trial lawyer who knows that you have to meticulously prepare your case. You have to know the law. You have to read the characters of the witnesses and, especially, the judge and jury. It takes preparation, intelligence, concentration, empathy and determination. You also have to have a lot of physical stamina and a high tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty. These are the characteristics of a victorious warrior in any field.
Look at Edwards's campaign site. He has laid out more detail, more thoughtfully, earlier, with more certainty than any other candidate. He will approach the Presidency the same way. Elect John Edwards and he will take the corrupt, the incompetent, the lazy, and the dishonest into the courtroom of public opinion and he will slice and dice them like sushi. He will step over their carcasses and, with the judgement of the public judge and jury to back him up, he will quickly implement the remedies that the court of public opinion awards.
Edwards' campaign has attracted an army of fighters as passionate, courageous and determined as he is. If it has a problem, it is that there are a lot more Americans who, while very concerned and upset, are not yet mad enough to fight at his side. They will cheer on his legions if he is the nominee, but they won't volunteer to join his infantry - at least not yet. His challenge is to either a) rouse enough of the fence-sitters to build a sufficiently large horde, or b) shift to a strategy that is based less on frontal assault and more on exploiting tactical advantage. I have no doubt that John Edwards is smart enough to conceive of such a shift, but it remains to be seen if his army is sufficiently well-trained to execute the maneuver.
Hillary Clinton - The Designer
I really, really admire Hillary Clinton. And yes, I really, really admire Bill Clinton. Bill and Hillary are the two finest political and policy technicians of our generation - possibly our century. No one understands America's issues and opportunities the way this power couple does. No one has the network of friends, colleagues and professionals that this couple has assembled. No one has the experience, the skills and the deep policy insights that they possess. No one is as technically qualified to be President as Hillary - except, of course, Bill.
If Hillary is nominated and elected, I firmly believe that she will start on day one with the most complete and competent team in American governmental history. There is a sad history to first-term presidents. If they weren't the VP in the previous administration, they generally have to cobble together a national governing team from scratch. Invariably, they bring a few longtime friends from 'back home'. Carter brought folks from Georgia. Reagan brought the California kitchen cabinet. Clinton brought the Arkansas folks. Bush brought the Texas contingent. Almost without exception, there are some real clunkers in the posse. It often takes nearly until the second term (if there is a second term) to sort out the deadwood and replace them with competent pros.
Forget that with Hillary. She will have 8 years of Bill's administration to mine - plus her own contacts from her own interests and her time in the Senate. Given her organizational skills, you know she has already assembled a governing lineup that looks like the Dream Team. If she doesn't actually bring back the best of the 90s (Rubin, Holbrooke, Richardson, etc.), those folks will have proteges and colleagues that are just as good - but younger. They will have good ideas to address every problem - and Hillary will give them the guidance, room and support to make good stuff happen fast.
There will be no 'fall down go bump' days for this President. Hillary's administration will be redlining the tachometer minutes after taking the oath of office. I am convinced that most of America knows this. It is the reason that some of the Southern Conservatives in my neck of the woods have become a lot less nutso about her presidency. They will hate it. They will inhale as infrequently as possible. But they know, deep down, that she, better than any other candidate (Democrat or Republican), knows exactly what to do and how to 'git er done'.
However, unlike Obama and Edwards, her high-octane campaign and prospective administration will have to push against a lot of unnecessary drag. Even though she has a 12 cylinder campaign and she will have the most diesel powerful engine American government has ever seen, she is and will be driving through mud up to her axles. No politician of our generation will face the kind of ankle-biting, pot-holed, glue-like governing environment that she will encounter. If she is lucky, she may win the general election 53:47. For a new face, that would buy at least a bit of a mandate. For Hillary, it will buy an open season hunting license on her and everyone she employs.
Once Hillary weathers the first year, the situation should improve dramatically. Americans have been starved for competence for so long that she will eventually win them over. The pace of her high-powered administration's achievements will silence the naysayers. She will steadily build political capital so she can tackle the big issues toward the end of her first term and in the start of her second.
If she can just get elected.
My Choice
For me, the choice is clear. It is determined by the roles that these wonderful individuals seem to fit best.
We need a Strategist as President of the United States.
Times are so dire that compelling strategy is our scarcest resource and Strategists are scarcer than Warriors or Designers. Plus, if there is one thing I have learned from 35 years of business practice, research and teaching: it's impossible to implement good strategy from below. It's got to come from the top.
Barack Obama has the most comprehensive strategy to generate and manage the massive political capital that will be required to sustain American's Warriors and Designers through the coming days and years. Hopefully, he has and will retain the wisdom to find the best of America's Warriors and Designers and give them the resources and freedom to do what they are trained to do. With this highly personal analysis in mind, I conclude by revealing my hitherto secret wish:
An Inspiring Strategist President
An Tough Designer VP
A Warrior Attorney General
(all Democrats of course)
I know it will probably never happen, but Barack Obama says it's OK to hope.
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