Hints of a Hillary NH rebound? *slight update*

Huh? Yes. Though polls released later today might bear it out or squash it.

For one thing....a tremendous, raucous rally like the one in Nashua is always a good sign.

But beyond that, she gained on Obama a little in today's Rasmussen poll. Now, this is a 2-day rolling average poll, so that tells me that yesterday, the day following the debate, was noticeably better. And Sunday polling is more accurate than Saturday polling. Is she still behind? Probably, but the bleeding looks to have stopped.

Secondly, the Suffolk poll now has her just 1 point behind Obama. True, she was ahead by 2 yesterday, but the momentum that was like a freight train after Iowa has slowed considerably. And who knows, in yesterday's survey she might have been ahead. We will know more tomorrow morning.

Additionally, a couple of post-Iowa polls out today have her behind by only 7 and 3 points each. Nothing to rave about, but better than the 13-point deficit nightmare stuff we were seeing yesterday.

Check it out: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

Slight Update Fox poll for the 3 nights following the Iowa win (1/4-6):
Obama: 32
Clinton: 28
Edwards: 18

The realist in me says the odds are against it, but at just 4 points behind, victory is within grasp....at least. With Edwards people getting excited over being behind Hillary by only six in one poll....I say there is also room to speculate over an eeked-out win or a close second with these numbers.

•  realistic...? spinning....?

  you decide.

  by ScanDroid on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:20:40 AM PDT

  •  The Nashua crowd was invented

    They were bussing people in from out of state.

    - Albert Einstein

    by Walt starr on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:22:05 AM PDT

    •  link?

      by ScanDroid on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:24:22 AM PDT

      •  Walt doesn't need facts.

        Who are you to suggest he does?

        by rserven on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:32:12 AM PDT

        •  LOL (eom)

          by Montague on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 01:09:24 PM PDT

      •  I've only seen it in the washington times

        Link

        Not conclusive, but it doesn't sound good either for Hillary.

        by Grass on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:34:45 AM PDT

        •  Washington Times, eh?

          by ScanDroid on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:37:43 AM PDT

          •  Yes

            But then, if you want something more reliable, what does Bill's reception say?

            by Grass on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:40:41 AM PDT

        •  That figures

          Hillary has very little authenticity.

          by Prince Georges for Obama on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:41:02 AM PDT

        •  Russert talked about it this morning

          He said a janitor tipped him that there were a lot of Mass plates in the parking lot.  The "janitor" was probably Chuck Colson in disguise.

          by bugscuffle on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:03:54 AM PDT

      •  It was on MSNBC reported I think

        by Andrea Mitchell.  Saying they were from Mass. and the Hamptons in Long Island, New York.

        by ronnied on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:20:36 AM PDT

    •  Heard that on Morning Joe from

      somebody, but no link.

      by Inland on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:32:05 AM PDT

      •  Read it on two blogs

        Above they quote the Moonie Times, though.

        - Albert Einstein

        by Walt starr on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:37:13 AM PDT

      •  Just heard Joe say that the 11:00 Obama event

        was overflowing with unprecedented numbers---800 inside and another 750 outside still waiting in line.  All reporters are saying they have never seen anything like it.

        by dotster on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:44:48 AM PDT

        •  Obama @ the same venue?

          I was there, 2400 for Obama on sat and 2200 for HRC sunday. Confirmed by the Fire Marshall.

          
          

          by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:26:05 AM PDT

      •  russert

        by bugscuffle on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:04:14 AM PDT

    •  Walt, I was there

      I spent 3 days in NH, I saw Obama on saturday and HRC on Sunday at the same venue.....

      There a 3 more buses on Sunday. But the assertation by HRC that 3500 were there is utter tripe.

      I talked to the Fire Marshall both days, and those numbers were close to my guess's, 2400 for Obama and 2200 for HRC. ANd thats between 2 gyms, the second for overflow, set up with no TV, just audio.

      by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:23:22 AM PDT

    •  Only 3 buses on Sunday

      by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:30:34 AM PDT

    •  they did not bus

      but there were quite a few from Mass, just like at the Obama event according to 5 friends of mine to went to it, from MA, Nashua is just close to some bigger MA towns than other N.H cities.

      by rigso on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:33:53 AM PDT

      •  Correct, Nashua is close to the Mass line

        and not really that far from north Boston.

        I was at both events. Lots of cars from MA, NJ, Rhode Island, reporters etc, gee whiz its NH, what do folks expect just NH plates......

        Chriss sakes I drove from NJ, I saw Maryland plates even....

        There were 3 buses on Sunday for the HRC event. Only 2 were 40 footers, the other was a commuter bus.

        by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:43:21 AM PDT

        •  Not to mention all the rental cars

          When I was in NH in January of 2004, my rental car had out of state plates.

          by Nelsons on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:10:59 AM PDT

          •  Another excellent point

            Did you go to the Merrymak diner, is that the right name ?

            by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:31:29 AM PDT

            •  Merrimack Diner. Walked past it but never went in

              As I was walking past, there was a group of people coming out of the door - lo and behold among them was Sean Hannity. As the group hit the street, Hannity yelled something putrid at a guy walking behind him in the group. It would have been funnier if it hadn't been so sad.

              It was amazingly cold, so everyone, including me, was walking at a very brisk pace. I was there in support of Wes Clark for president - still think he was the best choice of the lineup that year.

              by Nelsons on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 12:46:19 PM PDT

      •  Sorry forgot link to MAP

        to show the closeness of NH to MASS....

        http://maps.google.com/...

        by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:44:06 AM PDT

  •  Only the wisdom of Yogi Berra:

    A ballgame ain't over 'til it's over.

    by magnetics on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:48:20 AM PDT

  •  ever heard

    ... of a dead-cat bounce?

    (realizing that DKos crowd is loaded with folk who love pooties, wystler scurries from the room and hides)

    by wystler on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:20:52 AM PDT

  •  Or... really spinning

    by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM PDT

•  Edwards within 6 of Hillary in NH!

  Perhaps John Edwards' strategy of positioning himself as the true rival to Obama (and knocking Hillary out of the way in the process) wasnt such a bad idea after all.

  Today's Marist Poll has Edwards within 6 of Hillary in NH and rising!

  A new Marist poll in New Hampshire has Edwards closing in on second place with Clinton, pulling to within 6 points. Obama continues to lead, as McCain and Romney stay close.

  Democrats (Jan. 5-6, 636 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4%)

  Obama 36
  Clinton 28
  Edwards 22
  Richardson 7

  by Ajax the Greater on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:21:41 AM PDT

  •  That is good news Ajax...

    It would be a painful experience to have it just Edwards and Obama (in an I admire them both sort of way) but it would be nice to be done with the Clinton dirty politics.

    by Morgan Sandlin on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:24:21 AM PDT

    •  It wouldn't be painful for me.

      My #1 and #2 going at it in an inspired debate?

      That would be great.

      by jre2k8 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:51:51 AM PDT

•  I've also noticed

  when something hits the pavement at 60 mph, it usually bounces of the asphault a little bit before it comes to a complete halt.

  by Daaaaave on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:22:35 AM PDT

•  Sigh...I won't take away your Hope...

  Because Hope is a good thing.

  by Morgan Sandlin on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:22:35 AM PDT

  •  a good thing with feathers.

    by darthstar on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:37:06 AM PDT

    •  Thanks Emily. Watch out for that fly, though. n/t

      by philimus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:49:34 AM PDT

•  they bused in a bunch of people

  from NY for that rally but keep hoping........

  by nevadadem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:24:56 AM PDT

  •  I was there, 3 buses, I didnt check the plates

    by Roger Fox on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:29:06 AM PDT

•  Suffolk polls in NH have been ridiculously

  pro-Clinton. They had her leading by 12 the day after the Iowa caucus. In subsequent days, everybody had Obama leading solidly.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:25:05 AM PDT

•  I am not sure what you are reading

  Rasmussen shows the same today as yesterday:   a 10 point lead.  Here is the quote from Rasmussen himself:

  The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire, released Monday morning, shows Barack Obama continuing to enjoy a double digit lead in New Hampshire. Obama earns 38% of the vote, ten points more than Hillary Clinton who earns 28%. The survey was conducted on Saturday and Sunday and shows little change from the results reported yesterday and Saturday.

  Obama will win by more than you think.  He may even touch 45%.

  by daninoah on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:25:21 AM PDT

•  Spin.

  Bleeding to death a little less slowly doesn't mean you're going to live, you know.

  And I'm not even sure the data shows a slowdown, but at somepoint I imagine there will be a point where it stabilizes and Clinton starts to go up a few points. I just don't know if NH will have already voted by that time or not.

  by Addison on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:25:34 AM PDT

  •  let them have hope

    we are Obama supporters!  Look at the demeaner of the two on the trail today, you don't need polls to see what's happening.

    by nevadadem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:26:54 AM PDT

    •  true enough

      by Addison on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:36:23 AM PDT

•  I Don't Think So, But.....

  .....The media narrative has set an expectation of Obama crushing Hillary by possibly double digits, I do wonder if she should somehow comes within 1 to 3 points of Obama tomorrow night & beats expectations, would that be enough to "stop the bleeding" and realistically keep her in the race at least till Nevada & South Carolina.

  by Rimjob on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:28:38 AM PDT

  •  Obama is now the "inevitable" candidate

    If he doesn't get a huge lead in the actual votes, the media will spin that as backsliding or failure.  Since NH has an open primary, however, I expect independents and Rethugs (and a few truly new Dems) will swamp the place just as happened in Iowa.

    by Montague on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 01:15:35 PM PDT

•  Hints of an outlier poll

  Suffolk, that is.

  by Paleo on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:29:39 AM PDT

  •  Suffolk the ARG

    This time?  Perhaps.

    by marcvstraianvs on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:30:40 AM PDT

    •  Yeah

      by Paleo on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:35:38 AM PDT

•  Hillary should have enough strength to get to 30%

  Edwards has no real base in NH so I don't see him climbing over 20%.  With Obama the front-runner, the only real opposition is Hillary.  They occupy different turf; they have different skill sets and resumes.  Edwards and Obama occupy the same turf and Edwards' foolish decision to attack Hillary has made his own numbers drop overall.  If it's a choice between Obama and Edwards, Obama will beat him by double digits in every state.  There is no reason to vote for Edwards.  There is little to distinguish him from Obama, and Obama has far more charisma and far less baggage.

  The key for Obama's margin is the number of new voters that turn out.  The indies don't matter so much as I think they've been factored in and with those votes he would be around 34-35%.  If he wants to get to 40% he needs lots of new voters.  

  I expect Hillary to do better in NH because more women will vote for her in NH than in IA where she had to struggle for every vote.

  by khyber900 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:31:25 AM PDT

  •  The only reason you think Obama has less

    baggage is because he hasn't been vetted.  The press has treated him with kid gloves.  He has plenty of baggage for those willing to see.

    I don't dislike Obama.  I do think his "star" status has inflated his support.  As an Obama supporter, it would be best to open eyes and mind now.  No one is perfect and creating the impression that he is will only make reality more painful.

    For a mild discussion of how the media is handling Obama, check out this article from FAIR (Fairness and Accuracy in News Reporting).

    by DemSandy on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:50:32 AM PDT

    •  I agree that Obama hasn't been vetted as much as

      I'd like. If he were, Hillary would be ahead.  Edwards, however, has no chance.  He doesn't have a path to victory, only to be a spoiler.

      by khyber900 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:09:44 AM PDT

      •  We all have our opinion

        I consider his strengths to outweigh his weaknesses.

        He appeals to a lot of people in this country...and the number will rise as they get to see and hear his message.  

        It would be interesting to see how this nomination cycle played out if the media covered it as an election, rather than a two-ring circus.  They treat the Republicans as though they were all candidates.  They treat the Democrats as though there were only two.

        by DemSandy on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 11:53:33 AM PDT

•  Wow, I guess everybody needs

  some hope.  But you are really grasping.

  Now, this is a 2-day rolling average poll, so that tells me that yesterday, the day following the debate, was noticeably better.

  That's contrary to what Rasmussen said about the poll himself and he actually has the daily numbers. Did you see the overnight surge in Zogby's tracking poll? It isn't completely over re; the nomination, but it is all over but the shoutin' in NH (that is, Mark Penn's shouting in the unemployment line).

  by Prince Georges for Obama on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:39:22 AM PDT

•  Media blindsided as much as Clinton.

  One thing I didn't mention is that the media wants this to be a race, and so they may stop reporting on negative Hillary news and she might get a bounce from that.

  by Addison on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:44:09 AM PDT

•  Hillary has many of the stalwart

  Dems locked up--she definitely has the Dem establishment and they have the machine.  I think that if the turnout is the usual voters she may very well win.  If there is a huge number of first time voters, or if the Independents go Dem rather than Rep, she won't do as well.  Those who were undecided are swinging to Obama, and lesser so to Edwards based on my phone calls.  And this comes from someone who isn't a Hillary supporter.

  by sobermom on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:50:20 AM PDT

•  I think the key will be how many independent ...

  ... voters turn out for the Democratic primary instead of the Rethuglican one. If McCain siphons off a lot of the NH indepedents, Hillary could keep this one close. OTOH, if those folks turn out for Obama, there's probably not much Clinton can do to win in the Granite State, though she may be able to call a loss by less than 9 points a comeback of sorts.

  The "false hope" statement over the weekend strikes me as a dumb thing to have said. Nobody likes a buzzkill wet blanket at a party, including the Democratic Party. That being said, Hillary did herself some good with the extended Q&A session the other day, and she has a strong organization that will help to make her competitive for quite a while yet.

  by philimus on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:57:23 AM PDT

•  They call it

  a "dead cat bounce".

  by rock the ground on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:25:07 AM PDT

•  Great diary, love to see it!

  What's great is that with the momentum swing, if Hillary can finish NH within 6 points of Obama, it will be painted as a "comeback kid" moment. She'll pull that to a win in Nevada. Keep the good news coming!

  by heineken1717 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:23:04 PM PDT