I can only tell you what I see here in Boise

This diary was inspired by the red-hot recommended one by ToqueDeville, Hey Edwards Supporters, It's Time to Jump On the Obama Train

I'm in Boise, perhaps the reddest of the red states. We caucus February 5, so we will - for the first time - have some small say in determining the nominee.

Obama is on fire here. People have been organized for him since last March, when 100 people came to a kickoff. He's had a donated office and paid staff here since early fall. His events draw tons of people, and his volunteers have a presence in all the right places: sporting events, Democratic Party events, on campus, and at the cool bars.

Edwards? I know he has supporters, but they have done nothing to organize.

Clinton? Even less.

More below the flip ...

Obama has been endorsed by legions of key Democratic leaders in the state. If Edwards and Clinton have high-profile supporters, they're keeping quiet about it.

Bottom line: I won't be surprised to see Obama take at least 50 percent of our caucus in Ada County and handily win the rest of the state.

Using all our little $25 donations and avid volunteers, Obama has replicated this in many of the red states. Alaska. Utah. Oklahoma.

In contrast, neither Edwards nor Clinton has any visible campaign apparatus here whatsoever. HRC came here (Sun Valley, actually) in June 06 - just before the second-quarter deadline. She raised gobs of money - most of it from max-outers - and left none of it behind, even though we were fielding several Dem candidates who could've really used some help. (Does the name Larry Grant come to mind?) Now, however, Idaho seems to be off the radar.

So if you are an Edwards supporter in Idaho - or a similar small red state where Obama has invested staff and resources, while Edwards has not  - I'd encourage you to consider whether your candidate will be viable. As longtime Edwards supporter ToqueDeville suggests, a vote for Obama represents an end - finally! - to politics as usual - while at this point, a vote for Edwards unfortunately may wind up meaning more of the same.

•  Tips for change we can believe in

  I'll add here that I admire both HRC and JRE, but I believe the Barack Obama movement is our best chance at really turning the country around.

  by Red State Rebel on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 05:55:56 AM PDT

•  And now I must get ready for work ...

  But I'll be back shortly to reply to comments. Thanks for reading.

  by Red State Rebel on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 05:56:53 AM PDT

•  A vote for Edwards equals a vote for McCain

  That's the way I now see it.  By sticking with Edwards and not switching to Obama Dems will lose the presidency in November.

  In the HRC versus McCain match-up Hillary will lose.  The Dems will not get the independents and Dem leaning GOPers they'll need to succeed and we'll have four more years of a GOP president in the White House.

  Obama stands a chance against McCain because he appeals to independents.  Edwards will never win the nomination, and HRC will win.

  by CTReformedRep on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 05:57:23 AM PDT

  •  Then why don't you talk to all the people voting

    for Hillary.  That is a vote for McCain too.

    And there are a lot more of them right now, apparently, if you believe the press.

    by rick on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:30:20 AM PDT

    •  Because their candidate is winning

      and is ahead in the polls.  Edwards is losing and the polls show he doesn't have a chance to win a single state in the primaries.

      by CTReformedRep on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:21:59 AM PDT

•  Great Info, Red State--Thanx!

  I think Obama's organizing efforts in places like Idaho and North Dakota will help realize the potential of Dean's 50-state strategy!!!

  by serrano on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:00:33 AM PDT

•  Well, if Obama really wants Edwards supporters...

  ...he's going to have to take on more of Edwards' message.

  That's the way this has always worked. You can't just say that you want the Edwards voters without altering your platform to some degree to satisfy the bloc of votes you want.

  It doesn't have to be Edwards' entire platform. Just one or two key points that will satisfy his constituency.

  That's politics. Saying someone's candidate isn't viable isn't going to do anything but alienate his supporters and make them less likely to vote for your guy.

  by King Folderol on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:08:11 AM PDT

  •  Did you listen

    to the speech last night?

    I thought Obama was sounding a tad more like Edwards.

    I couldn't find the entire speech, but here is most of it.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    by nisleib on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:14:03 AM PDT

•  McCain can't win the election...

  ...in part because no Republican can beat any of the top 3 Democrats this year, but also for a more ethically ambiguous reason.  He's old and looks old.  He flubbed his lines in his victory speech last night.  He's going to get physically and mentally run down, month after month, if he's the nominee.

  I'm not happy to say this, since it straddles the line between contemptible ageism and legitimate issues of his ability to be president.  And let's face it, he's not the most robust 70-year-old in part because he spent five years in a North Vietnamese jail, thanks to our last crazy-ass war.  But as a purely political observation it seems pretty solid to me.

  by Rich in PA on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:09:33 AM PDT

•  Well

  said. I'm neutral in the primaries (And that's because I really do feel all our candidates are kick ass, so I don't care as much as I probably would otherwise about which one ultimately prevails). But this diarest makes some points worth contemplating and debating. All in all, this is shaping up into one exciting election season though eh? Good luck to all!

  by DarkSyde on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:24:06 AM PDT

•  50 state strategy baby! n/t

  by TrueBlueMajority on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:43:09 AM PDT

•  I was a Deaniac in 04 and I do think Obama

  is running by far the best embodiment of the chair's 50-state strategy.

  But one big thing to remember is that - at least here in Idaho, and I am sure many other small states - there was a big grassroots groundswell for Obama before the campaign sent resources. I was at the first Obama meeting here in February 07, and was immediately struck by the fact that I didn't know anyone else in the room. (I'm pretty heavily involved in local politics.)

  The Obama campaign really is bringing out people who had no previous interest nor engagement in politics. That can only be good for democracy in general and Democrats in particular.

  by Red State Rebel on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 06:48:21 AM PDT