Reading George Curry's column on the racial progress in Mississippi. I started thinking about Obama's poor poll numbers in Mississippi and the fact that every poll has showed it to be solid, solid red.
Reading George Curry's column on the racial progress in Mississippi. I started thinking about Obama's poor poll numbers in Mississippi and the fact that every poll has showed it to be solid, solid red.
So, I am having the toughest time wrapping my head around Mississippi's poll numbers. The state has a population that is 37% Black, 60% White, and 3% other minorities. Which tells me that unless Mississippi's black population still reminisces about the "Party of Lincoln" that at worst the polls should be leaning, not solid, McCain.
Now I'm sure that the vast majority of Mississippi's white population are GOoPers. And the poll numbers, 54% McCain, 39% Obama, reflects the average Democrat share of the vote over the last 40 years, and a historically low black turnout in the state.
However, I find it near impossible to believe that Obama candidacy won't generate increased registration and turnout amongst Mississippi's black population, much more so than McCain will generate amongst whites.
By my math, if blacks and white turnout in equal percentages and blacks go the 88% for Obama that Kerry go (and I know that's low this time around) then Obama only needs to get 28% of Mississippi's white population to vote blue to win. Up Obama's share of the black vote to 98% then Obama only needs to get 23% of Mississippi's white population to win.
Is getting 23% of Mississippi's white voters an impossible goal? Or is the methodology of the polls so off that every poll so far has been an outlier?