[Insert standard "I hate poll diaries but I'm doing one anyway disclaimer"]
Obama 50, McCain 47
So where does (and should) North Carolina rank among the battleground states?
Before anyone had any idea that North Carolina would be competitive, I'm sure most would have put it behind states like the traditional battlegrounds of OH and FL, Obama's new targets of CO and VA, and perhaps even behind defense states like PA and MI. People even questioned Obama's initial decision to fight there, thinking that if NC flipped blue, it would only be in a landslide year so there was no point.
But now look where we are. Just by making a strong case nationally and treating it like one of the states worth fighting for, Obama is now leading by 3 (and at the 50% mark) in North Carolina, and that's according to a pollster for which Nate/538 detects a "republican lean".
So my case that NC should be a top priority -- and by that I mean, ahead of OH and FL, ahead of PA and MI, and perhaps even with CO and VA is as follows:
- The RCP average has him up. This isn't because of a fluke poll. Rassmussen has had him up twice, with the lead increasing, and the only poll bringing him down in the RCP average is ARG. Being ahead in the RCP average is not a fluke or noise when we're 33 days from election day -- it means Obama has a great chance to take the state.
- Based on Nate's analysis of primary data, NC is one of the top states where we can expect undecided voters to break to Obama. This means that even if Obama is tied with McCain leading up to election day, Obama could arguably be "ahead."
- North Carolina is certainly one of the states that is hit hard with the economic meltdown. The Charlotte economy revolves around banking. I'm sure this is partly responsible for Obama's recent surge.
- North Carolina should be a relatively cheap state for advertising, at least when compared to OH, FL, and VA (because of the very expensive DC market). I acknowledge it's probably more expensive than states like CO or NH.
- The 15 EVs it carries would be useful in so many different scenarios. In the case where Obama wins the Kerry states, he would need only IA+NC to get over the top. If he stumbles and loses Michigan, he could still get back to 271 with the common plan of IA+NM+CO, with the help of NC. Or, if he lost PA, he could get back to 272 with NC along with IA+NM+CO+NV. And of course, in any scenario where there would otherwise be 269-269 deadlock, NC would provide more than enough to give Obama a clear victory.
- From what I understand, McCain does not have much of an operation to combat Obama on the ground there. How could he? His primary fight did not extend that long, and NC was never even discussed as a potential battleground even 5 months ago.
- Lastly, unlike OH, VA, FL, PA, or MI, it has an incredibly competitive Senate race. A victory by Hagan is needed for any path to 60. The same could be true of CO (Udall) and NH (Shaheen), though polling for those races of largely been more favorable and comfortable than for Hagan. Thus, any investment Obama puts into NC would certainly help him get his working majority in the Senate, should he get elected.
I'm sure there are plenty of other reasons that I haven't listed. But I fear that if I spend any more time on this, there will have already been countless diaries on this new, great poll, and no one will want to click on yet another diary on the same subject. (This is only my second diary, so I think I'm still allowed to have an ego...)