As the hours tick away before the VP Debate, time for a quick recap of the state of the race as of today, the 2nd of October. It was, for all intents and purposes, a pretty quiet day of polling. Only a couple of national polls, little movement in the tracking polls, and most of the polling was of a non-presidential variety.
In all, we see 28 polls released today, with more than half of them in gubernatorial, Senate, and House campaigns. There is some very encouraging internal polling (bring your salt), as well as a handful of presidential polls which confirm the recent, positive trends for Obama.
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PRESIDENTIAL POLLING: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
After yesterday's numbers reflected a small float within the MoE in the direction of John McCain, those same tracking polls floated back in the direction of Barack Obama today. The net advantage crept back up to 7.00%, tied for the biggest tracking poll lead Obama has enjoyed. One poll held steady (Diageo at +5), but the other three all edged up a single point in Obama's direction. After a couple of days sliding, Gallup went back to Obama +5. Rasmussen reported the widest Obama lead of the general election, staking him to a 51-44 edge. And Research 2000 also had Obama at his widest lead (51-40).
Meanwhile, only a pair of national polls out today, and they both show slightly more modest leads for Team Obama. YouGov teamed up with the Economist--they have Obama leading 47-42. Meanwhile, Marist College also steps in with some numbers, and they also see Obama by five--49 to 44.
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING: STATE-BY-STATE
After yesterday's monster day for Barack Obama, the numbers tended to stabilize a bit today. The Obama people have to be happy with the state of things in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The McCain team has to be at least a little relieved to see New Mexico is still within single digits, and they have to be happy with a single-point deficit in Colorado (albeit from a poll that is one week old). Plus, they finally get a favorable poll in a place like Virginia. In all, we see new numbers in twelve states. Nine of them show momentum in Obama's favor (when compared to the Pollster trend estimates), while three head in McCain's direction.
COLORADO--Cirulli: Obama 44%, McCain 43%, Others 3% (McCain)
GEORGIA--InsiderAdvantage: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Others 2% (Obama)
KENTUCKY--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 42%, Others 2% (Obama)
MICHIGAN--PPP: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (Obama)
MONTANA--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEBRASKA--Rasmussen: McCain 56%, Obama 37%, Others 3% (Obama)
NEW MEXICO #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, Others 4% (McCain)
NEW MEXICO #2--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, Others 4%
NEW YORK--Siena College: Obama 58%, McCain 36% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO--G.Q.R. (D): Obama 49%, McCain 43%, Others 5% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg College: Obama 50%, McCain 41%, Others 2% (Obama)
VIRGINIA--Mason Dixon: McCain 48%, Obama 45% (McCain)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
Quite a bit of downballot polling today, as over a dozen polls are released. Rasmussen for the second day has some optimistic Senate numbers (this time out of Nebraska and New Mexico). Add to that a half-dozen internal polls which make us think that the playing field in the House might be bigger than we think. Another highlight--Rasmussen finds the "Brian Schweitzer is vulnerable!" meme to be a bit overblown, and an independent poll in the Alabama 3rd district shows a tightening race.
AL-03--Capital Survey: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 45%, Josh Segall (D) 36%
CO-SEN--Cirulli: Mark Udall (D) 45%, Bob Schaffer (R) 38%
FL-10--Anzalone Liszt (D): Rep. Bill Young (R) 50%, Bob Hackworth (D) 33%
ID-01--Harstad (D): Walt Minnick (D) 44%, Rep. Bill Sali (R) 38%
KY-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 51%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 42%
MI-SEN--PPP: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 50%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 32%
MT-GOV--Rasmussen: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) 56%, Bob Brown (R) 41%
NE-SEN--Rasmussen: Mike Johanns (R) 52%, Scott Kleeb (D) 38%
NM-SEN #1--SurveyUSA: Tom Udall (D) 58%, Steve Pearce (R) 39%
NM-SEN #2--Rasmussen: Tom Udall (D) 55%, Steve Pearce (R) 41%
NC-GOV--Rasmussen: Pat McCrory (R) 50%, Beverly Perdue (D) 46%
NC-08 #1--G.Q.R. (D): Larry Kissell (D) 54%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 43%
NC-08 #2--P.O.S. (R): Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 46%, Larry Kissell (D) 43%
OH-02--Momentum Analysis (D): Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) 37%, Vic Wulsin (D) 36%*
TX-10--Goodwin Simon (D): Rep. Mike McCaul (R) 43%, Larry Joe Doherty (D) 38%
(*)--Independent candidate took 11% in this survey.
The numbers still seem to favor the Democrats, and some of the punditry is heading towards that conclusion as well. Stuart Rothenberg is now estimating Democratic house gains at 10-20 seats. More than one commentator has posited that sixty Senate seats is not a total pipe dream for the Democrats (although it remains unlikely). In short, the wind is at our backs, but work must be done to keep it there. 33 days...and counting...until Election Day 2008.