In all states which are within 5% on Electoral Vote's daily map,
I compare the current McCain/Obama polling differential to the
Bush/Kerry actual vote differential (in percent).
Here's the latest table:
STATE Bush-Kerry McCain-Obama Difference date polled differential differential 2004 (%) Sept 19 (%) NV (S 30) 3% (1%) +4% CO (S 28) 5% (3%) +8% MN (O 01) (3%) (5%) +2% MO (S 30) 7% 1% +6% IN (S 30) 21% 2% +19% OH (S 29) 2% (2%) +4% FL (S 30) 5% (2%) +7% VA (O 01) 9% (3%) +12% NC (S 30) 12% 0% +12% NH (S 23) (1%) (1%) 0%
The first such table, published on August 27,
showed that Obama was doing as well as or better than Kerry in every
state (16 of them) satisfying the 5% criterion.
The second table, published on September 12,
showed a different picture, with McCain doing better than Bush in 2
states while Obama's performance stats vs. Kerry went down
The third table, published on September 19, showed improvement for
Obama over the previous week, albeit with McCain still doing better
than Bush in 3 states.
The fourth table, published September 26,
showed Obama ahead of or equal to Kerry's performance in all
close states (10 of them).
In this latest table, Colorado has been inserted again, while
Pennslyvania has been dropped. This is Obama's best table yet,
as he is is doing better than Kerry in all close states except
New Hampshire (and today's polling, not included in the EV results,
shows a big gain for Obama in New Hampshire).
The best news for Obama are the results from Florida and Ohio,
where he is finally outperforming Kerry, and by enough to win
those states. Either one and he wins the election.
The best news for McCain has to be Colorado, a critical state which
is once more within reach.