With polling data and tracking sites showing an easy win for Obama if the elections were held today it's tempting to think that it's over.
In all likelihood, however, the race will naturally tighten before November 4th even without any outside factors. And it's probable that McCain will fling at least one more Hail Mary and pursue a defensive "clear and hold" strategy to try and gain the absolute minimum number of states needed.
So what are McCain's remaining Hail Mary possibilities?
- Replace Palin on the ticket, Much less likely after her showing last night. Although Romney might give him a big boost on economic issues it likely wouldn't offset the anger and betrayal felt by the base, no to mention the further suspicions it would raise about McCain's judgment.
- Reveal some new, powerful unknown negative about Obama or Biden. If they have anything juicy they're likely saving it until just before election day. When you're behind and time is running out going negative is the only sure way to move votes and change the momentum. Update [2008-10-3 15:19:19 by Whiskeytea]: I would never underestimate the Republican's so-called War Room. The Clinton research team was no doubt formidable but that doesn't exclude the possibility that new information could be located. Unlikely, but still possible.
For their part, Obama aides declined to characterize McCain's electoral strategy. They fear that Obama's numbers are artificially high, and that the race will tighten somewhat before November 4. They also worry that McCain, who's been running a mix of positive and negative television ads, will dump his money into an entirely negative campaign in October, one that would question Obama's fitness, patriotism and identity.
- The Bristol Palin Wedding media orgy.
In an election campaign notable for its surprises, Sarah Palin, the Republican vice- presidential candidate, may be about to spring a new one — the wedding of her pregnant teenage daughter to her ice-hockey-playing fiancé before the November 4 election.
Inside John McCain’s campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. "It would be fantastic," said a McCain insider. "You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week."
- Scary world events. At this point it's not clear that such an event would necessarily help McCain but the conventional wisdom thinks it would.
An October surprise? By my calculations, it would take nothing short of Russia invading yet another former satellite nation or an unimaginable terrorist strike. Neither of those things is anything anyone should hope for.
So what is McCain's electoral strategy?
As of now the McCain camp appears to be focused on New Hampshire and Maine as the firebreaks (note: Maine and Nebraska distribute their electors by Congressional district rather than a winner-take-all approach).
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, a site that blends current polling with demographic statistics and past electoral results to generate remarkably accurate Election Day projections--see its primary season record here--the only Kerry state that McCain has a better chance of capturing than Michigan (13 percent) is New Hampshire (37 percent). Pennsylvania, at 14 percent, is a wash; Minnesota and Wisconsin (eight percent each) are probably out of reach.
Apparently, the McCain campaign is now staking its path to victory, at least in part, on Obama winning Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado and losing New Hampshire, which would result in a 269-269 draw--at which point McCain would turn to Maine's second congressional district (where Kerry won 52-46) for the tie-breaking vote.