This isn't really an analysis, really, but it seems to me that, if you're still one of these ex-Clinton, ex-Gore, or even ex-Kerry neo-liberals that thinks Obama's is somehow lacking in national political bolts of mythological/Euripidean-type lighting to the epiphonic centers of the brain, then pay attention the facts on the ground in Ohio.
... all of the evidence suggests that if we didn't have a candidate that played an all 50 state race from the outset, we would loose big time soley based on the fact that Ohio is crazy.
(As an additional anecdote, my father-in-law attended Oberlin College for a semester after which he got the hell out of Ohio, too, and just as Pronto!)
Links below:
Ohio hates Biden
Ohio hates Homer
Diebold hates Ohio