The people trying to guess the election result over at Intrade don't seem too impressed with the Palin performance in the VP debate - so far today Obama has surged over 7% to a new record high of over 72% (that's his probability of winning the election for those of you unfamiliar with it).
Meanwhile McCain has fallen below 30% for the first time.
Usually the moves are relatively sedate, not more than 1 or 2% per day in either direction - looks like the dam is now breaking as more and more people become convinced Obama will win and want to pile in while there's still some kind of price on offer.
They have now added an electoral map on the front page, so you can bookmark the site and see at a glance what the current forecast is based on the state-by-state betting. The current score is 338-200 Obama.
Since they give the percentage probabilities for each state, you can work out the rank order of likelihood of a state being won. There have been dramatic moves in Obama's favour this week in the state lists. First of all, he's shored up his base: MN, WI, MI and PA are all over 80% probability for Obama now. The only mildly vulnerable Kerry state according to Intrade is NH, and even that is a fairly healthy 72%.
Of the competitive red states, Obama's win probability is now over 50 in a large number. In descending order:
IA - 90
NM - 80
CO - 70
NV - 64
VA - 61
FL - 58
OH - 58
He is tied in NC at 50-50,
and marginally behind in MO (42) and IN (34).
[update]
according to this article from almost exactly 4 years ago, the electronic markets are considerably more accurate predictors than polls and have only got it wrong twice (in 2000 and 1916).
This time 4 years ago Bush was pushing up to 69 on intrade, more or less matching where Obama is now. Kerry pulled back strongly in October, making the final result a nailbiter. Hopefully McCain will not manage the same this time round.