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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/29-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Chambliss (R) 45
Martin (D) 44

This was a late addition to our polling list, added in response to polls from Rasmussen and particularly SUSA showing a tightening race. In fact, SUSA has shown some late movement:

SurveyUSA. 9/28-29. Likely voters. 3.8% (9/14-16 results)

Chambliss (R) 46 (53)
Martin (D) 44 (36)

That's a 15-point swing in just two weeks, and our Research 2000 poll confirms SUSA's latest numbers. This one is neck and neck, with Chambliss -- the ass who morphed Democratic war hero and triple amputee Max Cleland into Osama Bin Laden -- suddenly falling well-short of the magic 50 percent "safe" mark for an incumbent.

That means that we can now add the Georgia Senate seat to the ranks of top-tier races, in addition to the 10 existing ones (VA, NM, AK, CO, NH, NC, OR, KY, MN, and MS-B).

Suddenly, the wisdom of a real 50-state strategy becomes obvious yet again: the Obama camp set out to register 500,000 new voters in the state. And while Obama may not win this state this year (he will in 2012), we may pick up a Senate seat because of those efforts.

But don't count out Obama just yet. In the presidential horse race, Obama trails in single digits -- 50 to 43. Georgia may not give Obama his winning margin, but it would be one hell of an exclamation point. And early signs look good for him.

A disproportionate number of Georgia’s 194,138 early voters are African-American, in what could be an encouraging sign for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

As of Wednesday, about 39 percent of those voters — 74,961 — are African-Americans, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office said.

African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters in the state, according to Oct.1 figures. They cast 25 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential election four years ago.

FYI, this poll assumes a 27 percent African American turnout.

And check out the state's voter registration numbers:

The fresh Georgia political map is likely to startle. Just since 2004, Georgia's registration rolls have grown by 577,000 new voters, a plurality of them black. Political observers believe an additional 300,000 new voters are yet to be processed and added to the rolls. Don't frown, Bubba. It will be OK. Trust me. Whites still hold a commanding majority of the vote (64.5 percent). However, their numbers have diminished by nearly 6 percent in just four years.

The big question with this rash of new great-looking polls for Democrats is whether the trends are a temporary bounce in reaction the economic crisis, akin to a convention bounce, or whether it's a longer-lasting trend. It's hard to say at this point, but let's hope for the latter.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Update: Here's the Jim Martin campaign website.

Also, Nate talked about Georgia this morning, before this poll was released.

A related question is whether the pollsters are underrepresenting the black vote in their turnout estimates in states like Georgia. I think they might be. In their past two surveys of Georgia, SurveyUSA pegged black voter turnout at 25-26 percent. This is a pretty safe assumption, since it exactly matches the Secretary of State's turnout estimate from 2004. But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate.

Martin is outperforming Obama -- with 26 percent of the white vote compared to just 21 percent for Obama. If Georgia is a toss-up for Obama, Martin wins. But while those white voter numbers look ugly, note that Georgia is changing rapidly. It isn't just white and black anymore, with significant growth in other non-white grops (like Latinos and Asians), and those groups are also heavily Democratic. A full third of the state is now non-Anglo, and if Obama and Martin win, it'll be because of this black-brown-Asian alliance.

The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from September 29 through October 1, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  294 (49%)
Women                306 (51%)

Democrats            228 (38%)
Republicans          245 (41%)
Independents/Other   127 (21%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                192 (32%)
45-59                180 (30%)
60+                  120 (20%)

White                396 (66%)
Black                162 (27%)
Hispanic              31 (5%)
Other                 11 (2%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Martin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 18%         33%         23%         11%         15%

MEN                 17%         31%         26%         12%         14%
WOMEN               19%         35%         20%         10%         16%

DEMOCRATS           29%         46%         11%          4%         10%
REPUBLICANS          6%         21%         35%         19%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        19%         34%         21%          8%         18%

18-29               21%         36%         20%          8%         15%
30-44               18%         33%         22%         11%         16%
45-59               17%         32%         25%         12%         14%
60+                 16%         31%         26%         13%         14%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Saxby Chambliss? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         35%         29%         13%          4%

MEN                 21%         37%         27%         12%          3%
WOMEN               17%         33%         31%         14%          5%

DEMOCRATS           12%         27%         40%         18%          3%
REPUBLICANS         27%         44%         17%          7%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        17%         34%         31%         14%          4%

18-29               17%         32%         32%         15%          4%
30-44               20%         35%         29%         13%          3%
45-59               20%         36%         27%         12%          5%
60+                 21%         37%         27%         11%          4%

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Jim Martin the Democrat or Saxby Chambliss the Republican?

                   CHAMBLISS   MARTIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         44%          4%          7%

MEN                 48%         41%          5%          6%
WOMEN               42%         47%          3%          8%

DEMOCRATS           13%         78%          3%          6%
REPUBLICANS         77%         11%          4%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         46%          5%          7%

WHITE               63%         26%          6%          5%
BLACK                8%         83%         -            9%
HISPANIC            11%         69%         -           20%
OTHER                9%         71%         -           20%

18-29               42%         48%          3%          7%
30-44               44%         44%          4%          8%
45-59               46%         43%          4%          7%
60+                 47%         42%          4%          7%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         43%          3%          4%

MEN                 53%         40%          4%          3%
WOMEN               47%         46%          2%          5%

DEMOCRATS           15%         80%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         85%          9%          3%          3%
OTHER               46%         42%          5%          7%

WHITE               73%         21%          4%          2%
BLACK                5%         91%         -            4%
HISPANIC             9%         65%         -           26%
OTHER                9%         68%         -           23%

18-29               46%         47%          2%          5%
30-44               51%         44%          3%          2%
45-59               52%         41%          3%          4%
60+                 52%         40%          2%          6%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 08:05 AM PDT.

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