This is the fifth installment of my weekly series on the 2008 Presidential campaign. The purpose of this column is to recap the week and provide some observations and suggestions for the Obama campaign to ensure victory in November.
This week was another strange chapter in the 2008 election that saw most of the action in Congress, the VP debate and Saturday Night Live. The events and news cycles were so intense that every day and a half felt like a different month. However, Barack Obama continued to maintain a consistency in his speeches, public appearances and delivery that continued to inspire confidence among those voters who voted in 2004 (according to polls) and the unlikely voters whom Obama plans to get to the polls by November 4th.
The House GOP: We don’t need no water, let the muthafu**a burn...burn, baby burn.
The House GOP screwed up the bailout/rescue bill by torpedoing it and attempting to blame Nancy Pelosi for making a speech that hurt their feelings. Barney Frank delivered the most memorable quote of the entire debate stating ‘give me the names of the 12 Republicans whose feelings were hurt and I promise to say uncharacteristically nice things to them if they will change their vote’. The entire press room broke out in laughter, and from that point on, the GOP bore the full brunt of the blame for the failure to pass the bill. The Dow lost a record 777 points that day, sending Washington, the markets and the country into a tail spin.
The failure in Congress reflected badly on all, but mostly the GOP, George Bush and John McCain, who presided over most of the mess and did very little to set or manage expectations. Barack Obama reacted quickly, preaching calm from campaign stops in Denver, CO, Reno, NC, and La Crosse, WI. Obama began to take an active role in supporting the bill and explaining the reasons for its necessity. While many Democrats were uneasy and skeptical of the bailout plan, Obama correctly judged that the people believed by and large that some significant federal action was necessary. Once Harry Reid decided to break the Congressional impasse by orchestrating a revised package complete with an increase in the FDIC limit (a suggestion openly supported by Obama) and other energy efficiency tax credits, alternative minimum tax relief and various other goodies (or pork). Obama gave a speech on the Senate floor (McCain as usual remained silent) and voted for the bill. The House, after much consternation, ended up passing the amended bill by a large margin, with more Congressional Democrats switching votes from no to yes than Congressional Republicans. A majority of Republicans voted no. Democrats gave credit to Obama for his efforts to get the bill passed. Hardly anyone gave any credit to McCain.
The VP Debate: Biden v. Palin
In between the House and Senate votes, the country was forced to witness the Vice Presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. Palin had continued to provide more comic relief (and horror) all week with absolutely devastatingly bad interviews with Katie Couric. Palin displayed incoherence, ignorance and a lack of comprehension of several basic questions. She couldn’t identify any newspapers or magazines she has read, and she couldn’t identify any Supreme Court cases with which she disagreed. She completely mangled the conservative argument on abortion, and was in general, a disaster.
That poor performance set the stakes very high for Palin, but also put the expectations unreasonably low. Palin’s performance during the VP debate was spirited, but full of vapid folksy colloquialisms, talking points, and a tendency to avoid directly answering any questions. She delivered her fair share of zingers, but was generally judged to be charmingly unprepared for the job of VP. Four debate polls showed that Biden had bested Palin by about 15 points to a 2:1 margin. The audience for the debate surpassed the Presidential debate and set a record of 70 million.
Joe Biden showed a rare combination of substance, intellect, composure and passion. He repeatedly attacked John McCain’s positions on the issues, and his attacks were met with little resistance from Palin, who didn’t seem prepared or capable of handling the matter. He also managed to defend Obama from Palin’s attacks, and used one attack on war funding to launch into sharp criticism of the Iraq war which proved to be one of the decisive factors in the voters’ perception of each candidate’s performance. Many in the media and in the GOP spin room lauded Palin’s folksy, flirty and engaging performance, but many more conceded that Biden had won the debate and showed a good deal of skill in debating a difficult opponent who didn’t play by the rules and used her gender as a shield to deflect outright criticism of her lack of knowledge and unpreparedness for the job. Tina Fey returned to play Sarah Palin in the best SNL parody of the Alaskan governor to date. Fey encapsulated the hollowness of Palin’s effort and once again destroyed the frame the GOP spent so much time trying to make.
John McCain
John McCain kept a relatively low profile for most of the week. Speaking in Ohio, Iowa and Missouri, and generally complaining that he was not getting credit for having suspended his campaign a week earlier and accusing Barack Obama of ‘phoning it in’. McCain ultimately supported the bailout bill, even with the pork that he decried in the first debate.
Post-Debate
The post VP debate period saw John McCain speaking in Colorado, celebrating Palin’s performance and attacking Obama. He then proceeded to take the rest of the weekend off. However, McCain sent a new signal as to how he would shape the tone of the last 4 weeks of the campaign. McCain adjudged Palin to be newly revitalized and decided to deploy her as the attack dog. Palin had a busy weekend schedule, campaigning in Colorado, California and Nebraska, and took direct aim at Obama’s character by accusing him of ‘palling around’ with terrorists, a reference to Bill Ayers, the former 60’s radical member of Weather Underground turned regular citizen. Palin made the inflammatory claim even though the New York Times and the Associated Press debunked the allegations. Palin also added what the AP characterized as racial overtones to her inflammatory remarks by stating that Barack Obama did not see America like she (and her supporters did). She attempted to exploit Barack’s unique background as a reason not to trust him. Despite being confronted by CBS News about the falsity of her remarks, Palin simply stated that the AP was wrong and continued to make the claim at a rally in Omaha, NE.
The Obama campaign responded by having Obama seize a statement by a McCain official that they were eager to ‘turn the page’ on the financial crisis to start attacking Obama on character. Obama used a speech before a crowd of 28,000 people in Asheville, NC to reiterate that he would keep the focus on the economy and he wasn’t going to turn the page because no one in American can afford to given the economic crisis we are experiencing.
Obama further responded by allowing surrogates to fill the Sunday shows with strong rebuttals to McCain supporters regarding the Ayers allegation, and also to send a warning shot to McCain that they would look into McCain’s dubious associations, including McCain’s role as a member of the Keating 5. By Sunday evening, after Palin had reiterated the Ayers attack, and the Obama campaign announced that it was going to broadcast a 15 minute film on McCain’s role in the Keating 5 with the objective of tying his conduct to the financial crisis facing the country today.
The Polls
Barack Obama enjoyed a significant bounce as a result of the first debate that continued to grow through the week through the financial crisis and the VP debate. By the end of the week, Obama led nationally by an average of 8 points. News from the state polls was also unrelentingly bad for McCain. Obama moved into leads in every blue state and also grabbed clear leads in Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Nevada. Obama also moved into a statistical tie in Missouri and Indiana and appeared to be slightly ahead in North Carolina. McCain pulled out of Michigan and seemed to reduce his presence to 3 blue states: Minnesota (where two polls showed Obama leading in double digits), Wisconsin (where Obama leads outside the MOE) and Pennsylvania (where Obama leads from 10-15 points). In contrast, Obama was pushing hard in at least 9 red states that Bush carried in 2004.
Analysis
With 2 debates and only 4 weeks left in the campaign, Barack Obama’s chances of winning the Presidency surpassed 50% and is currently closer to 70%. Obama has decisively defined the race on his terms, and the battlegrounds will be in red America, not blue America. No blue state appears to be seriously threatened at this point. The McCain camp is the process of actively blinking, as they attempt to redirect resources to other states. It is unclear how the RNC and McCain will coordinate ad spending, but it looks as though many in the GOP are clamoring for McCain to spend more face time in Virginia as well as other red state battlegrounds.
The financial crisis could not have worked out better politically for Obama. He showed a steady hand, a calmness of mind, and clear intellect in explaining his position on the crisis, criticizing McCain and staying above the fray while working in the background to get more Democrats to support the bailout. McCain was erratic, unsteady and showed more anger and whining (witness McCain’s interview with the Des Moines Register) than statesmanship.
While many on this site are skeptical of the bailout, I believe the document represents the surrender papers signed by the GOP for the end of laissez-faire Reaganomics. The bill will allow the government to buy mortgages, impose strict regulations on participating banks, and revise mortgage contracts to keep people in their homes. The bill allows the government the opportunity to significantly reduce the losses to the taxpayer, as the government can pick and choose when it sells a mortgage. While the bill will not be a cure-all for the economy, it is a necessary step to stabilize the financial markets and to begin the process of getting private lenders to lower their interest rates on loans so that credit can be less expensive. Credit is the engine of the global economy and any solution for our economic ills must include ways to lower interest rates for entrepreneurs, small businesses and consumers. George Bush will not be implementing this bill; Barack Obama will. I have confidence that an Obama Administration will manage this process intelligently and efficiently.
A lot has already been written about the VP debate, but I would just add that Biden had a reassuringly strong performance that was more compelling to voters than Palin’s reality tv sideshow. There is no better way to capture the essence of the debate other than to watch the SNL parody.
Looking to this week, here are a few things for the Obama campaign to think about:
1. The Second Presidential Debate.
The second debate is a town hall format, which means the forum will be issues based and the audience will likely be looking for substantive answers and presidential demeanor. McCain is a desperate man, and he will look for opportunities to attack Obama and will focus on Obama’s readiness, fitness for office and character. I am certain the McCain camp believes that it cannot afford to lose 2 out of 3 debates and expect to win the election. That means McCain will be at his best (or worst) in terms of bluster and broad, aggressive and categorical statements. Ayers, Wright and Rezco may make an appearance in this debate, though it would be very risky for McCain to do so in a town hall format where voters will likely show little patience for such sideshow politics. Tom Brokaw may also interject to ask some loaded follow-up questions on the issues the beltway cares about as opposed to what Main St. thinks. Obama must be prepared to bring his A game, and cannot afford a Rick Warren like performance.
Obama’s approach should be to adopt the same game plan as he did during the first debate: show poise, knowledge and substantiveness while stiff-arming and rebutting McCain every time he launches an attack. Obama must also show an ability to connect with the questioner, which should not be a problem for him given his magnetic personality. He may be a star, but he comes across as the most down to earth star I’ve ever seen. If he does that, he should win the debate by similar margins as the first two debates.
If Obama can be a little sharper on some questions and can call out McCain a few more times on errors in his statements, that will make the sense of domination more clear. For example, when McCain said in the first debate that Pakistan was a failed state before Musharraf took over, Obama passed up the opportunity to remind him that Pakistan was a democracy that was overthrown by a military coup led by Musharraf. Obama should be more prepared to rebut McCain at every turn and not let him get away with anything.
Obama has inherent advantages in this debate format. McCain is behind and needs to attack, but this debate format does not avail itself of such opportunities without great risk. In addition, fewer people will likely watch this debate than the 70 million strong audience for the VP debate. The drop-off will be among Republicans, whose interest in this election appears to be lukewarm and they seem to need to see Sarah Palin to register a pulse. The comparatively larger Democratic audience should increase Obama’s likely chance of winning the debate in the insta-polls. Moreover, Sarah Palin did Obama a big favor last week by diminishing the importance of social issues. She trampled all over the GOP message on abortion (is she really a true believer on the subject?) and she endorsed a moderate liberal position on the gay issue. Without social issues, the Republicans cannot win general elections. Even if a voter asks a question about abortion, Obama should be able to handle it well. In my view it is less likely in the current climate that voters will in fact ask such questions, but Brokaw might demand that a certain portion of the questions be devoted to social or cultural issues.
2. Attacking and Counterattacking McCain
It is quite clear that McCain has decided to start getting desperate early, as all of his surrogates seemed singularly focused on William Ayers and Tony Rezco on Sunday. Obama has responded with a three fold attack: hit McCain on health care, the issue that could move the final set of undecided voters into the Obama column; continue to hit McCain on the economy; hit McCain on his associations, including the Keating 5 scandal; and launch ads criticizing McCain’s erratic temperament.
Can Camp Obama walk and chew gum at the same time? Can surrogates take an aggressive line on these arguments and leave the candidate free to keep the focus on his standard economic stump speech with some new health care wrinkles? The Democrats seemed prepared on Sunday, but they will have to keep it up for several days. Obama has an advantage in money and favorability and should be able to rebut McCain effectively.
The risk is if Obama is seen as overreacting to McCain’s antics and unwittingly allows the media to ‘turn the page’ and change the subject. Obama will have to make quick adjustments just as he did during the financial crisis to respond to an ever changing political environment.
3. Dealing with the Palindrone.
Sarah Palin remains the wildcard in this race. She is leading the charge for McCain to make those Cheney like inflammatory statements. Palin has no conscience or shame about lying repeatedly and at-will. She also avoids taking direct questions from the media, but because of her reality star like power, her comments make the airwaves and change the tone of news coverage absent a larger news story. She has made it clear that she is going to repeat the Ayers story every day she is on the stump. This is a real challenge for the Obama campaign, especially during the first week. Afterwards, the public absorbs the attack and usually decides to ignore it, if the story is fully vetted (which it is).
In my view, the Obama camp should not be shy about bringing on the female surrogates (including Debbie Wasserman Shulz) to aggressively go after Palin on the political talk show circuit. Axelrod should also push stories to the media regarding Palin’s honesty. Troopergate, the Alaskan Independence Party and general lying should be featured again. Palin’s campaign style is so sophomoric that surrogates should quickly be able to refute her allegations. I do not think Palin should be allowed to lie with impunity. Biden also has to get involved in going after Palin.
However, Obama must pursue this strategy in a manner that keeps the focus on the economy. He cannot afford to allow McCain to change the subject. If we go three weeks with debating Ayers and Wright, Obama will lose ground in the polls. The margins in the final battlegrounds are too narrow to risk that. Sunday’s speech in Asheville, NC is a good way to manage the situation. Talk about how the negative attacks hurt America because they don’t talk about the problems facing the country. I would also suggest a more personal tack – the attacks in and of themselves are insulting to the American people, ‘when she attacks me (Obama), she is really attacking you’.
The next two debates also provide Obama with an excellent opportunity to talk directly to the voters and get straight to the issues while criticizing the tone of McCain’s campaign. News like the jobs report last Friday and the tumbling markets today (Monday) should be integrated into the speeches. I am also still waiting for the campaign to issue a 30 second ad on Obama’s tax plan.
By starting this line of attack during the debate period, McCain is diminishing the value of that type of campaign, because the opposition has a chance to change the subject back during a big event (the debates). It won’t be the first time that Camp McCain has made a bad move, but I’m looking forward to see the results later in the week.
Obama will need to take advantage of his debate performance to keep the focus on the issues and keep the pressure on McCain. The risk is that Palin’s repeated attacks start to gain currency and polls tighten. While that is part of the natural process, Obama simply has to mind the store while the Palindrone continues to use the word ‘terrorist’ and ‘Obama’ in the same sentence. In short, if Obama can have a good debate performance, he should remain strong in the polls through the weekend.