Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 44 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole prairie! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, it’s Kansas. Click your heels three times and join me below...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
Thomas Frank wrote a very popular (in these parts) book called What’s The Matter With Kansas, about the Republican success in getting many heartlanders to vote against their economic self interest by appealing to social wedge issues and xenophobia. Kansas’s rock star Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius has evidently read the book and learned from it, because she (with help from Howard Dean and other 50-state strategy Democrats) has sparked something of a slow-cooking Democratic resurgence in the state.
Good thing, too. With white Southerners continuing to slip away from the party, we need to look elsewhere. It is not enough to have a Solid North to counterbalance Dixie—we will need a Solid Midwest and a Solid Rockies as well—and the Rockies will not be solid until Utah, Idaho and Wyoming join the pack, which will be a long time coming. The farm belt states of ND, SD, NE, IN and—yes—Kansas—along with the farm centered parts of other key swing states like Missouri and Ohio, are essential to any long term plan for Democratic victory nationwide. Kansas has been, until recently, far and away the worst Midwestern state for Democrats of them all, and we cannot be a long term majority party without it.
But see what’s happened this decade. We’ve had a Democratic Governor elected and re-elected. We’ve gained seats in the legislature to the point where Democrats are "merely" outnumbered three to one instead of four to one. We’ve elected a Democratic attorney general, and gained a new House seat from an incumbent last election, making the House delegation tied two-two. Governor Sebilius is widely considered a good bet to be elected to the US Senate in 2010—if she hasn’t first been given a position in Obama’s cabinet. There’s lots of work still to be done, but the seeds are being planted that will bear deep blue fruit in years to come.
BLOGS: I know of no Kansas-centered blogs. If you do, please tell me in the comments.
PRESIDENT: Will be competitive eventually, but the time for vigorously contesting Kansas in 2008 has passed. Safe McCain.
SENATE: Jim Slattery (D) v. Pat Roberts (Inc R). A solid third tier pickup opportunity that, according to any conventional wisdom was supposed to be a gimme for the Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since....um, since...yeah. Well. It’s been a while. What we have going for us this time is: Roberts is a particularly weak politician; Slattery, a former Congressman, is particularly good, and Sebelius has been laying good 50-state strategic turf to make the state competitive like it hasn’t been before.
Still, Kansas is one of those states that will bear 50-state fruit slowly over time, not give us instant results. Although Slattery appears to be doing everything right, he has not closed a wide gap, and time is running out. Those who say we’d be better off giving the resources to solid second tier races that have a better shot at an upset may be right.
http://www.slatteryforsenate.com/
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: All up in 2010, not now. Rock star Kathleen Sebelius is one of the greatest forces for change in Kansas, and a likely candidate for a cabinet post in the Obama Administration—which would allow Democratic Lt. Governor Mark Parkinson to move up into the Governor’s mansion in advance of 2010. With the possibility of Kansas losing a congressional district, it will be important to keep the Governor Democratic so that they do not gerrymander Kansas.
The attorney general, Steven Six, is a Democrat (thank Sebelius for getting him in, too), and the SoS and treasurer are Republicans.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
Lower House: 47 D, 78 R, deficit of 31.
Senate: 10D, 30R, deficit of 20.
It used to be even worse. We will continue to make progress slowly.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—West Kansas, including most of the state’s geography. James Bodanaro (D) v. Jerry Moran (Inc R). The reddest district in Kansas, and not on the map this cycle.
http://www.bordonaroforcongress.com/
District 2—Most of east Kansas outside KC, including Topeka. Nancy Boyda (Inc D) v. Lynn Jenkins (R). Boyda was considered a surprise winner in 2006, and is one of a handful of Dem incumbents who is in danger. If we want to keep our new toehold on the state, we will have to keep Boyda in office. Take heart, though—Dennis Moore was a top attack target for the Republicans too, the first few re-election cycles, but after several rounds of victories, at steadily widening margins, he seems to have found his niche. Boyda will too, if we can survive the first couple of rounds.
http://www.nancyforcongress.com/...
District 3— Kansas City and suburbs. Dennis Moore (Inc D). See what I said about him above. He survived some tough re-election rounds, and now starts off as a likely Dem Hold. This year, this late in the game, he’s safe, as the 2nd and 4th and the Senate seat take up the energy for the year.
http://www.mooreforcongress.com/
District 4—Wichita and surrounding areas. Don Betts (D) v. Todd Tihart (Inc R). I’m bold—part of me thinks I should name Boyda’s hold as the most important race in Kansas, because it too is vital—but I’m fascinated by State Senator Don Betts, who is doing better in fundraising and sheer energy than anyone ever thought he would. Besides, giving the Republicans a fire to put out in the district next door is a way to help Boyda as well. And so I’m declaring the Wichita-based 4th THE BIG ONE for this state in ’08. Returning Wichita to its blue collar Democratic roots is a fight worth having, and essential to the 50-state strategy of eventually turning the state. Betts is one of those wonderful self-starters I’ve written so much about in this series. Like Josh Segall in AL-03; like Linda Ketner in SC-01; like Larry Kissel in NC-08, if Betts can get his foot in the door he will stay there long enough to rise through the ranks and become a leader in the House. Wichita will have grounds to be grateful to have him. So this is your chance, Wichita—elect your very own rock star!
http://www.betts4congress.com/
REDISTRICTING KANSAS: If the Republicans control redistricting, and Kansas loses a seat, they will likely force Moore and Boyda into one district, possibly combining KC and Topeka into one district, having a second district run from Wichita to the SE corner of Kansas, and a the last district being everything else.
A more neutral redistricting would look more like Nebraska’s east-to-west district map. The new 1st would shrink a little geographically and add Wichita; the new 2nd would take in thinly populated counties from the existing east 1st and 4th, but keep Topeka, and the new 3rd would expand southward along the MO border.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Washington (Darcy Burner, WA-08) http://www.dailykos.com/...
Minnesota (Al Franken, MN-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Connecticut(Jim Himes, CT-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...