Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/01. Likely voters. MoE 5%
Boccieri (D) 48
Schuring (R) 38
Wow. Boccieri leads among men and women, among all age brackets, and has a 13-point lead among independents to go with his comfortable edge among Democrats.
Boccieri far outstrips Obama's performance in OH-16 at the moment; Obama merits a three-point edge over McCain, 49% to 46%. Not that that's bad, not by a long shot; Bush won by nine points in 2000 and eight points in 2004.
Boccieri - a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, State Senator, and former semiprofessional baseball player - has proven to be a terrific candidate, and this lead appears to be for real; SurveyUSA has pegged the race as 49% for Boccieri, 41% for Schuring.
Driehaus' race is a pure tossup, but this one leans Boccieri's way.
On the web:
John Boccieri for Congress
OH-16 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Sixteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 29 and October 1, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 188 (47%)
Women 212 (53%)
Democrats 176 (44%)
Republicans 148 (37%)
Independents/Other 76 (19%)
18-29 73 (18%)
30-44 119 (30%)
45-59 125 (31%)
60+ 83 (21%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Schuring? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 30% 21% 10% 28%
MEN 13% 32% 20% 9% 26%
WOMEN 9% 28% 22% 11% 30%
DEMOCRATS 6% 18% 30% 15% 31%
REPUBLICANS 17% 43% 11% 7% 22%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 29% 21% 9% 31%
18-29 8% 28% 23% 12% 29%
30-44 15% 34% 18% 7% 26%
45-59 10% 29% 22% 10% 29%
60+ 10% 29% 22% 11% 28%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Boccieri? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 31% 18% 7% 31%
MEN 11% 29% 21% 8% 31%
WOMEN 15% 33% 15% 6% 31%
DEMOCRATS 18% 42% 8% 4% 28%
REPUBLICANS 7% 18% 31% 11% 33%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 33% 15% 6% 32%
18-29 15% 33% 16% 5% 31%
30-44 10% 27% 22% 10% 31%
45-59 13% 32% 17% 7% 31%
60+ 13% 32% 17% 6% 32%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for John Boccieri the Democrat or Kirk Schuring the Republican?
BOCCIERI SCHURING OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 38% 4% 10%
MEN 46% 41% 5% 8%
WOMEN 50% 35% 3% 12%
DEMOCRATS 82% 6% 3% 9%
REPUBLICANS 7% 76% 5% 12%
OTHER 50% 37% 6% 7%
18-29 49% 36% 3% 12%
30-44 45% 42% 5% 8%
45-59 50% 37% 5% 8%
60+ 49% 37% 3% 11%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 46% 3% 2%
MEN 45% 51% 3% 1%
WOMEN 53% 41% 3% 3%
DEMOCRATS 82% 12% 3% 3%
REPUBLICANS 10% 87% 2% 1%
OTHER 51% 43% 3% 3%
18-29 51% 44% 2% 3%
30-44 46% 51% 2% 1%
45-59 50% 45% 4% 1%
60+ 49% 44% 4% 3%