OK, so with exactly four weeks to Election Day, the trickle of data is starting to look like a flood. We have a new tracking poll (which I am going to add to the mix against my better judgment), a couple of new national polls, and a quite unbelievable 43 individual surveys to sift through on this pre-debate Tuesday.
While some of the national polling is a bit sobering (but for reasons I think I can explain), the state-by-state polling still looks very, very good for the Democrats. ESPECIALLY at the Congressional level, where the House numbers are starting to look better than they ever have, even in the excellent Democratic cycle of 2006.
Follow me for the numerical goodness.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
So far, we have seen a pair of national polls since yesterday's diary got launched. American Research Group (ARG) polls the nation, and comes to the same conclusion that they did last week: Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Interesting note--43% of Americans say that they could "never vote" for John McCain. Only 40% said the same for Obama. This is a similar finding to Rasmussen tracking, which had a seven point (45-38) spread among those who were "certain" of their vote.
The second national poll is nominally a tracking poll, but I do not include it as such because it is not a daily poll. The latest installment of the Battleground/GWU poll shows Obama with his largest lead in that survey, a seven-point gap (50-43).
Meanwhile, the "Big Four" tracking polls becomes the "Big Five" tracking polls, with the inclusion of the Reuters/WSJ/Zogby daily tracker. As it has a narrow Obama lead of 48-45, it will bring down the overall average. So, it is not fair to compare it to yesterday's average of 8.5%. It is worth noting that Obama holds more Democrats (86%) than McCain does Republicans (85%), AND he holds a pretty respectable lead among independents (49-42). The only logical conclusion to draw--Zogby is ignoring the pretty serious gap between Democrats and Republicans seen by just about every other pollster.
Except, perhaps, for one other pollster worth mentioning today.
One other tracking poll showed serious movement, but there also appears to be a bit of sleight-of-hand by the pollster at work. Diageo/Hotline showed a massive change overnight, with Obama's lead sliding from six points (47-41) to just two points (46-44).
So, what is at work here? A pretty substantial shift in the demographics, actually.
The respondents were split D 41%, R 36%, and I 19% for a few weeks. Now, for reasons known only to them, the split is D 40%, R 38%, I 18%. It should also be noted that originally, this tracking poll had a NINE-point split between Democrats and Republicans (D 43-R 34). Curious, to say the least.
Meanwhile, a slight ebb in Obama's lead in the Research 2000 tracking poll (51-40) is offset by a record lead for Obama in the Gallup tracking poll (51-42). Rasmussen holds steady at 52-44. Even with the substantial changes in the Diageo/Hotline survey, as well as the new numbers for Zogby, no one has John McCain over 45% today.
Given the addition of Zogby's very conservative tracker, and the precipitous drop in Diageo/Hotline's numbers, we start the new average for the "Big Five" tracking polls at a possibly low-balled 6.6% advantage for Senator Barack Obama.
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
While not uniformly positive for Barack Obama today (there are a couple of polls that are at least mildly disappointing), the proponderance of state polling today looks very good for the Democrats. Included in today's numbers are big leads in multiple polls in Pennsylvania, as well as solid numbers in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, two states that allegedly were McCain targets upon his abandonment of Michigan.
A bonus: there is some real distance starting to show in polling in two key McCain firewalls--Ohio and Nevada. In all, with a total of thirteen states with new data, eleven of them have momentum pointing towards Obama (based on the Pollster trend composites), while two are heading in McCain's direction.
ALASKA--Rasmussen: McCain 55%, Obama 40% (Obama)
CALIFORNIA--SurveyUSA: Obama 55%, McCain 39%, Others 4% (Obama)
FLORIDA--Mason Dixon: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, Others 1% (McCain)
INDIANA #1--Research 2000: Obama 46%, McCain 46%, Others 3% (Obama)
INDIANA #2--CNN: McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Others 5%
MICHIGAN--Michigan State: Obama 45%, McCain 33% (Obama)
MINNESOTA--U. of Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 40% (Obama)
NEVADA--Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--CNN: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Others 4% (Obama)
NEW JERSEY--Fairleigh Dickinson: Obama 50%, McCain 37% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA--CNN: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO #1--CNN: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Others 5% (McCain)
OHIO #2--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
PENNSYLVANIA #1--West Chester: Obama 52%, McCain 42% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 55%, McCain 40%, Others 3%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 41%
PENNSYLVANIA #4--Muhlenberg: Obama 48%, McCain 38%, Others 3%
WISCONSIN #1--CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Others 5% (Obama)
WISCONSIN #2--SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, Others 3%
NON-PRESIDENTIAL NUMBERS
Ladies and gents, it is HERE that Democrats reading today will no doubt celebrate, and Republicans will tremble. SurveyUSA polls seven House races, and finds a Democratic landslide in the midst. A series of other public polls finds Republican peril all across the country. That, and the first happy poll to emerge from the North Carolina governors race in quite some time. The lone letdown--what is UP with our top-tier Democratic challengers in New Jersey??!!?? Are we to rely on the late-breaking Democratic trends again?
AK-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 49%, Mark Begich (D) 48%
CA-03--Fairbank/Maslin/Maullin (D): Rep. Dan Lungren 33%, Bill Durston (D) 30%
FL-18--Telemundo: Rep. Ileana Ros Lehtinen (R) 48%, Annette Taddeo (D) 35%
FL-21--Telemundo: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) 48%, Raul Martinez (D) 43%
FL-25 #1--Telemundo: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 43%, Joe Garcia (D) 41%
FL-25 #2--McLaughlin (R): Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) 49%, Joe Garcia (D) 36%
IL-10--SurveyUSA: Dan Seals (D) 52%, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 44%
IN-GOV--P.O.S. (R): Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 54%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 32%
IN-09--SurveyUSA: Rep. Baron Hill (D) 53%, Mike Sodrel (R) 38%, Others 7%
MI-07--Myers Research (D): Mark Schauer (D) 46%, Rep. Tim Walberg (R) 36%
NC-GOV--PPP: Beverly Perdue (D) 46%, Pat McCrory (R) 43%, Others 4%
NC-08--SurveyUSA: Larry Kissell (D) 49%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 41%, Others 6%
NH-GOV--SurveyUSA: Gov. John Lynch (D) 67%, Joe Kenney (R) 24%, Others 6%
NH-01 #1--SurveyUSA: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 50%, Jeb Bradley (R) 41%, Others 6%
NH-01 #2--SRBI Research: Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D) 42%, Jeb Bradley (R) 35%
NH-02--SRBI Research: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 35%, Jennifer Horn (R) 18%
NJ-03--Monmouth: Chris Myers (R) 44%, John Adler (D) 41%
NM-01--Albuquerque Journal: Martin Heinrich (D) 43%, Darren White (R) 41%
NY-29--SurveyUSA: Eric Massa (D) 51%, Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 44%
OH-01--Research 2000: Steve Driehaus (D) 46%, Steve Chabot (R) 44%, Others 4%
OH-16--Research 2000: John Boccieri (D) 48%, Kirk Schuring (R) 38%
PA-04--SurveyUSA: Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 54%, Melissa Hart (R) 42%
PA-11--Susquehanna (R): Lou Barletta (R) 47%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 39%
WI-08--SurveyUSA: Rep. Steve Kagen (D) 54%, John Gard (R) 43%