One of the weaknesses of the Clinton Primary campaign was that she never seemed to challenge herself or her team with the question; "How can Obama beat me?" So let's put the question out there. Hopefully it will be academic, but is there any way we can lose this thing?
CHARACTER ATTACKS
Obama has just about completed the building of a winning presidential brand, calm, collected, connected, believable. It's hard to see how that can be punctured by Palin's hatemongering in the eye of the economic storm. But it is possible.
In order to make the character charge stick, McCain's going to need more evidence. His dirt-diggers are probably scouring Chicago looking for it, but unless they come up with something big on Wright, Rezko, or Ayers. They might have it, but it's very unlikely now that BO has been under scrutiny for nearly two years, and the closer we get to the the big day, the bigger the surprise has to be.
The trouble with all the attacks on Obama is that they're all reheated. They might work with the knuckle draggers, but will undecided voters seem them as anything other than desperation? Unlikely. What the GOP needs is something new to get people backtracking. Nothing doing yet. Obama seems to have a little of the old Reagan teflon about him. Getting something to stick is going to be hard work.
SHREWD GOP CAMPAIGN PLOY
Nothing they have done has the air of believability now. It's hard to think of a new tack that could deliver the dramatic shift in momentum that McCain-Palin needs in the battleground. They've tried attacking Obama on experience, associates, and record. They've run the old 'tax and spend' tag, tried to paint Obama as a 'celebrity', and an elitist. They've tried to attack Obama for being the 'exotic' other, and have skirted the race issue. None of it has really worked (and what effect it had is evaporating). Not much left in the tank.
BRADLEY EFFECT
Talking of race, could there be a Bradley Effect (named after the evaporation of the substantial last day poll lead for Bill Bradley when he ran for Governor of California). Again probably not going to be much of a factor. Firstly, since Bradley lost, a whole generation of old closet racists has died out, and a new generation that isn't concerned about race has replaced it. America is different in ethnic diversity, and racism has receded as a front-line issue. Plus racists are probably all Republicans already these days. If there is a Bradley effect, it's probably a single percentage point at most.
EXTERNAL EVENTS
Terror attack on US soil. It's not certain that would even play to McCain's side now. BO has come off tougher on foreign policy, and the loathing for all things Bush is so profound now that the truth will probably carry the day for the Dems. Bush has been fighting for seven years to protect this country and we still get attacked.
Bin Laden Killed. This one could seriously damage Obama. It's hard to imagine, but if ever there was an October surprise, this is it. If I was McCain I'd be pleading with the White House right now to put every Predator in the arsenal over the North West Territories for one last ditch attempt to smoke out Bin Laden. The chances are very slim, but it's probably the one thing that could turn the election profoundly.
Russia attacks Ukraine. Despite McCain's attempts to spin this idea, it ain't gonna happen. Putin would never overstretch himself.
Another Foreign Crisis. Something terrible happens that has something to do with nukes in Iran, North Korea or someother hotspot. Probably not going to break for McCain. Again, Barack has built his Presidential brand, and McCain's is in decline.
MCCAIN SLAM-DUNKS THE LAST DEBATE
Very unlikely. McCain looked old and past his debating prime tonight. That's most probably not going to change. Obama edits his words carefully as he presents his points. It's one of his great strengths. He's not going to gaffe. He's not going to lose his cool. In short, he may not dismantle McCain, but he's definitely not going to lose.
WE DO SOMETHING STUPID
Obama's campaign team is one of the most disciplined and on message outfits in the history of electoral politics. Unlike most Democratic teams it has not and will not panic. Just like its candidate it is very, very cool. It won't put a foot wrong. But can something from outside the campaign have an effect? Baiting McCain or Palin on the stump would be a bad idea, for example, but again unless it's huge the Obama campaign can just disown it.
ECONOMIC GOOD NEWS
Simply not possible right now.