It's become a common refrain from the McCain Campaign to crow about how prescient their candidate was about the Success of the Surge, and how Barack Obama supposedly "refuses to admit" that it's worked.
Well, that's only because it hasn't worked.
Last year the NIE stated that...
August 24, 2007 : Yesterday, the National Intelligence Estimate reported "measurable but uneven improvements" in the security situation in Iraq. While the White House has rushed to suggest that the modest gains were the result of escalation, the improvement can more plausibly be the product of Iraqi expectations of a U.S. withdrawal.
" "[F]earing a Coalition withdrawal, some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the Coalition to strengthen themselves for a post- Coalition security environment" [...]
Fear of withdrawal changed things, not the surge.
That was then in 2007, this year the "Surged Worked" view looks even worse. Details over flip.
Let me first repeat the key finding of last years NIE, the Sunni Awakening and the Mahdi Army Ceasefire (not to mention the Ethnic Cleansing) have been why violence has decreased - NOT THE SURGE - and both of those events were prompted the threat of an imminent withdrawal by U.S. forces as a result of the election of the Democratic Congress.
McCain likes to claim that the Sunni Awakening would have "collapsed" if not for the surge, yet most of the troops involved in the Surge itself didn't even go into the Sunni triangle, they went into Baghdad to give the Iraqi government "breathing space" in order to settle their differences.
So have they?
Not so much, according to the current NIE. Via McClathy.
WASHINGTON — A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year.
...
The draft NIE, however, warns that the improvements in security and political progress, like the recent passage of a provincial election law, are threatened by lingering disputes between the majority Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities, the U.S. officials said.
Sources of tension identified by the NIE, they said, include a struggle between Sunni Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen for control of the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk; and the Shiite-led central government's unfulfilled vows to hire former Sunni insurgents who joined Awakening groups.
The Strategic Goal of the Surge was to help allow for the Iraqi Government to resolve exactly these issues - and yet - they haven't. The political reconciliation between Sunnis, Shia and Kuds has not been accomplished and as a result the Sunni could still go back to sleep, and the Mahdi Army could again take up arms. The only question is how many of our troops will be standing in the crossfire, while the Iraqis have nearly 400,000 trained troops and $79 Billion sitting on the sidelines?
At a certain point the Iraqis are going to have to stand on their own two feet - but they'll never do it unless we get the heck out of the way.
Vyan