While the US election grinds on to what looks to me like an awe-inspiring finish, those of us north of the border are also pushing towards the grand finale of a much-quicker-and-only-slightly-less-dirtier federal election campaign.
Canada votes on Tues., Oct. 14. This is the day after our Thanksgiving, an odd bit of timing because it looks like the true giving of thanks will come when the returns are in.
MrvnMouse has been doing an awesome job keeping you up-to-date on what the pundits in the Great White North are saying, as in today's diary. I'd like to expand on the latest trends and tell you a bit about what I've been doing and seeing on the campaign trail. WITH STATS, over the fold...
Here's the good news:
The Cons are fading. (.pdf link)
Also the latest Harris/Decima poll.
Nanos has a reputation as the most accurate pollster over the past 3 or 4 elections. This tracking poll puts the Cons just 4 points over the Liberals, and down 7 points from their peak on Sept. 24. 40% on Sept. 24 could just possibly have made a majority government, given our undemocratic first-past-the-post system.
(Just consider the concept of a 40% Majority in your mind for a moment to appreciate the absurdity of it.)
At this point the Cons have no chance to form a majority government, and frankly they will be lucky to hold on to a minority. This is because the Liberal vote is much more, well, "efficient" than the Con vote.
Consider those Liberal numbers in Ontario. Ontario represents nearly 1/3rd of the total population of Canada, and close to the same percentage of seats in Parliament. Today, the Liberals have the same percentage of the vote they had on Election Day in 2006. OTOH, the Cons are down from 35% to 28%. This will mean Con losses.
By comparison, the Cons have huge support in Alberta, far more than they need to win every seat (although there is a chance for an NDP win in one Edmonton seat). The Con numbers in Western Canada look great, but they include a lot of "wasted" votes in Alberta that will not translate into seats.
But I must put in a word for my own NDP. I've been out knocking on doors, bashing in signs, and all that other stuff you, my comrades, have been doing for Obama. And today, maybe for one brief, shining moment, Nanos has the NDP up over both the Libs and the Cons: 31-30-30 in Atlantic Canada.
O.K., I'll admit the sample size is small, and the margin of error is huge. But I honestly never ever thought I would see those numbers in my lifetime. One day, Nova Scotia and Canada will have a progressive alternative to the rotten, bloody Cons, far more progressive than the Liberals, and ready to take on the challenges of the 21st Century far and square. Not this time, maybe, but it will happen, some sunny day.