I have been following the electoral college count projections over at RealClearPolitics.com for some time. They have never put Obama over the magic 270 electoral votes before. Today, RCP moved Virginia out of the contested state category and into the leaning Obama category. This gives Obama 277 electoral votes, putting Obama over the magic 270 electoral votes needed to win election for president.
Real Clear Politics Electoral Projection Map
Perhaps just as significant is that fact that RCP has Obama leading in six out of the seven states that RCP puts in the toss-up category.
There is no reason to be shy about posting about this. This can drive news for the day if we push it. It reinforces the general message that McCain is losing and with luck contributes to the Republican's overall sense that they can not win this year. Push this story out there if you can. The more Republicans who have their spirit broken--in Kos's vernacular "toss them an anvil"--the less dangerous the Republicans are as our opponents in November. Plus it has the added benefit of potentially helping down ticket democrats in other races.
The metric RCP uses--as I understand it--is they call the state leaning for a candidate once RCP's composite index of polls gives the candidate more than a five point lead. Here is the RCP breakdown.
Colorado 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0
Ohio 48.9 44.9 Obama +4.0
Florida 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0
Nevada 49.6 46.6 Obama +3.0
Missouri 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3
Virginia 50.0 44.9 Obama +5.1
The only toss-up state where RCP gives McCain the advantage is Indiana, and in Indiana RCP gives McCain only a 2.5 point lead over Obama.