So it seems that yesterday WAS the calm before the polling storm. After a day in which less than twenty polls hit the streets, this time around we see 40 individual polls in Campaign 2008. Tucked in the data are several polls that are very amenable to Barack Obama and the Democrats, although there is a disappointment or two tucked in there, as well.
Also, we see some very pronounced movement in the Daily Trackers, showing that perhaps we are going to see a second debate bounce for Barack Obama after his well-received debate performance. We also have a polling roundup of the second debate, showing that it may well have been more one-sided than previously thought.
Follow me for the numbers....
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
The "big five" trackers saw some movement towards equilibrium today, as the two that had been most sympathetic to the "toss-up" meme moved very quickly towards no longer being in that territory.
The most notable movement happened in the Diageo/Hotline tracker, which drew howls of protest/scorn when it showed a one-point race yesterday (fueled by a...wait for it...TWO point gender gap). Today, as they retreated to a more normal partisan distribution for a second day (41-36 D, as opposed to the 40-38 D they used earlier in the week), we see a huge leap for Obama. Today's poll had the race back to six points: Obama 47, McCain 41.
Zogby, who drew my derision yesterday for what appeared to be a sample with MORE Republicans than Democrats, did not seem to change their sample much. However, an ever-growing lead for Obama among Independents (from 7% to 13% in two days) has staked Obama to a four-point lead in that tracker.
The other three trackers changed little. Rasmussen shed one (down to Obama 50-45), while Research 2000 and Gallup held steady in double-digits for the Democrat. Important internal detail--apparently the debate reversed the slow creeping momentum for John McCain. On R2000's single day samples, the Obama lead had slid slowly but noticeably for four days...from 13 to 11 to 9 to 8. Last night's single-day sample (post-debate): twelve points.
In all, the "big five" tracking polls moved up more than a point for Obama--going from an Obama lead of 6.0% to an Obama lead of 7.2%.
No national polls today, surprisingly.
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
Most of the news for Obama today at the state level is very good, though there are a few clinkers thrown in there to keep us honest (Ras's numbers in Indiana, for example). The one that has merited several diaries today is the claim by American Research that McCain is now DOWN by eight points in West Virginia. The heart of working-class white Appalachian voter country. Hmm. Someone might want to throw a confirming poll into the field.
On the blue-state front, Michigan voters apparently are not thrilled with the McCain retreat (although a totally unknown pollster released a poll saying it is close), and Pennsylvania voters do not seem to be moved by McCain's presence there, as the Muhlenberg College tracking poll gives Obama his biggest lead to date there.
When looking at polling momentum (measured as a comparison of these polls vs. the Pollster trend composite), this was actually one of McCain's better days. Obama still wins the day, but it is not a total landslide. With new polling in 17 states, Obama has the mo' in 11 states, while McCain could claim momentum in six states.
ALABAMA--Capital Survey: McCain 55%, Obama 35% (Obama)
ALASKA--Ivan Moore: McCain 55%, Obama 38% (Obama)
FLORIDA--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (McCain)
GEORGIA--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 50%, Obama 43%, Others 2% (Obama)
INDIANA--Rasmussen: McCain 50%, Obama 43% (McCain)
MICHIGAN #1--Denno-Noor: Obama 44%, McCain 39%, Others 4% (Obama)
MICHIGAN #2--Rasmussen: Obama 56%, McCain 40%, Others 3%
MINNESOTA--American Research: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, Others 1% (McCain)
MISSOURI--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 46%, Others 1% (McCain)
MONTANA--American Research: McCain 50%, Obama 45% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--American Research: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, Others 1% (Obama)
NEW JERSEY--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Others 2% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #1--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 48% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--Civitas: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, Others 2%
OHIO--American Research: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Others 1% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 54%, McCain 40% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Muhlenberg: Obama 51%, McCain 38%
TEXAS--American Research: McCain 57%, Obama 38%, Others 1% (McCain)
VIRGINIA--PPP: Obama 51%, McCain 43% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--American Research: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Others 3% (Obama)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
Some interesting results here, as well. A couple of internal polls with good news for the Democrats, and one of the two "vulnerable" Democratic Senators appears to be home reasonably free, according to two polls. We also have a surprising number of public polls in House races, with decent news for Democrats in those surveys, as well.
AK-AL--Ivan Moore: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 51%, Rep. Don Young (D) 42%
AK-SEN--Ivan Moore: Mark Begich (D) 49%, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 45%
CT-04--Sacred Heart: Rep. Chris Shays (R) 41%, Jim Himes (D) 31%
GA-SEN--Strategic Vision: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 47%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
IN-GOV--Bellwether (R): Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 49%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 30%
IN-07--Research 2000: Rep. Andre Carson (D) 51%, Gabrielle Campo (R) 35%
KY-SEN--Voter/Consumer Research (R): Sen. Mitch McConnell 47%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 38%
MI-09--G.Q.R. (D): Gary Peters (D) 43%, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 40%, Others 10%
MN-03--SurveyUSA: Ashwin Madia (D) 46%, Erik Paulsen (R) 43%, Others 8%
NC-GOV--Civitas: Pat McCrory (R) 43%, Beverly Perdue (D) 41%, Others 2%
NH-GOV--American Research: Gov. John Lynch (D) 65%, Joe Kenney (R) 26%
NH-SEN--American Research: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 42%
NJ-SEN #1--Fairleigh Dickinson: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 50%, Dick Zimmer (R) 34%
NJ-SEN #2--Rasmussen: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 51%, Dick Zimmer (R) 37%
NY-25--Kiley & Co. (D): Dan Maffei (D) 49%, Dale Sweetland (R) 31%, Others 6%
NY-29--Research 2000: Eric Massa (D) 49%, Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 42%
PA-10--Franklin/Marshall: Rep. Chris Carney (D) 48%, Chris Hackett (R) 33%
PA-11--Grove (D): Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 47%, Lou Barletta (R) 39%
TX-07--Research 2000: Rep. John Culberson (R) 48%, Michael Skelly (D) 40%
VA-SEN--PPP: Mark Warner (D) 58%, Jim Gilmore (R) 31%
WA-08--Benenson (D): Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 48%, Darcy Burner (D) 45%
Finally, tonight, a word about the debate.
We know that the insta-polls showed a solid Obama victory. CNN gave Obama a 54-30 victory among all voters, while CBS gave Obama a 39-27 victory, when limited to only undecided voters.
A couple of other pollsters came in after the fact to report on views of the debate as well. Rasmussen had an interesting statistical trend. On their front page, they inform us that voters felt that Obama had won the debate by a margin of 45-28. A sizeable margin, to be sure. However, when limited to those who watched the ENTIRE debate, the margin was considerably wider. How much wider? Try an Obama victory by a two-to-one margin (57-29).
Meanwhile, USA Today/Gallup did more than confirm the instapolls. They hint to us that the instapolls might have UNDERSOLD the Obama debate victory. Their poll shows that 56% of voters felt that Obama won the debate, compared to just 23% of voters who felt that McCain was victorious.
But the most telling statistic might have come from a new poll by Ipsos/McClatchy. They limited themselves to a group of undecided voters. Before the debate, this group leaned narrowly to McCain (55-45). Even that is modest good news, because Chuck Todd reported a few weeks ago that the expectation of BOTH campaigns was that McCain would snare 70% of the undecideds. At any rate, this debate was a game-changer for some of these undecideds. After the debate, their leanings were 57-43. Obama.
26 more days....