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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Reichert (R) 49
Burner (D) 41

Not so great, but better than the SUSA poll from a month ago that had Reichert leading 54-44. Reichert under 50 with a month to go is much, much better. But the poll is showing a positive trend, Reichert is below 50, and his approvals are below 50. (Full crosstabs below the fold.)

This is in contrast to an internal poll Darcy's campaign is citing (via e-mail) that has her up 50-41. With no crosstabs on that internal poll available, it's impossible to compare. One of the methodological issues that could be affecting polling in this district is that, being one of the most tech-oriented districts in the nation, there are a lot of cell phone only households who aren't being reached.

That said, Darcy is running against a celebrity. While the real history of the King Co. sheriff's department investigation of the Green River Killer is complex and doesn't shine a particularly flattering light on Reichert, he still gets tremendous mileage out of being "The Sheriff." Every interview, every profile, every commercial, he never fails to work in the fact that he's "The Sheriff." And, frankly, the local media has let him get away with it.

They've been so undemanding of him that he repeated his biggest (largely unreported upon) trick from the sole 2006 debate: he told the moderators and audience that he was just going to skip the question on media consolidation because he didn't know enough about it.

This time it was a question on abortion, a key issue for this predominantly pro-choice district. Reichert was asked what Congress should do if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and he didn't answer the question, saying it wasn't an issue for Congress. At least the Seattle PI's blogging reporter included that in his story. For the record, he's anti-choice to the point of believing pharmacists should be allowed to refuse to dispense birth control.

Defining Reichert's far-right positions and his utter ineffectiveness as a Congressman is going to be the key for the next month, and it's going to be a challenge. No one knows that better than Darcy.

On the Web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Orange to Blue

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eight Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 5 and October 7, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  190 (48%)
Women                210 (52%)

Democrats            140 (35%)
Republicans          144 (36%)
Independents/Other   116 (29%)

18-29                 70 (17%)
30-44                132 (33%)
45-59                136 (34%)
60+                   62 (16%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dave Reichert? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         32%         28%         13%         13%

MEN                 16%         35%         25%         12%         12%
WOMEN               12%         29%         31%         14%         14%

DEMOCRATS            8%         23%         41%         22%          6%
REPUBLICANS         21%         41%         16%          5%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         33%         27%         12%         15%

18-29               11%         28%         31%         15%         15%
30-44               17%         36%         25%         11%         11%
45-59               13%         31%         29%         14%         13%
60+                 15%         33%         27%         12%         13%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Darcy Burner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         30%         26%         11%         20%

MEN                 12%         27%         29%         13%         19%
WOMEN               14%         33%         23%          9%         21%

DEMOCRATS           21%         42%         16%          6%         15%
REPUBLICANS          6%         19%         37%         17%         21%
INDEPENDENTS        12%         29%         25%         10%         24%

18-29               15%         32%         24%          9%         20%
30-44               11%         27%         28%         13%         21%
45-59               14%         32%         25%         10%         19%
60+                 12%         29%         27%         11%         21%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Darcy Burner the Democrat or Dave Reichert the Republican?

                   REICHERT    BURNER      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         41%          2%          8%

MEN                 53%         39%          2%          6%
WOMEN               45%         43%          2%         10%

DEMOCRATS           12%         76%          2%         10%
REPUBLICANS         84%          7%          1%          8%
OTHER               51%         40%          3%          6%

18-29               47%         43%          2%          8%
30-44               51%         38%          3%          8%
45-59               48%         42%          2%          8%
60+                 50%         40%          1%          9%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         43%          3%          7%

MEN                 43%         49%          3%          5%
WOMEN               51%         37%          3%          9%

DEMOCRATS           84%          7%          2%          7%
REPUBLICANS          9%         81%          3%          7%
OTHER               48%         41%          4%          7%

18-29               50%         40%          2%          8%
30-44               43%         47%          4%          6%
45-59               48%         42%          4%          6%
60+                 47%         43%          2%          8%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:05 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Maybe Obama should do a campaign stop? (8+ / 0-)
    He's a "celebrity" in his own right.
  •  I worry this may not be Darcy's year. (5+ / 0-)

    In 2006 it seemed like the 8th district race was all everyone was talking about. This year, though, the presidential race seems to be taking up all the oxygen in local politics.

    If we're lucky, Barack Obama (who will take the 8th district, make no mistake) will have coattails enough to sweep Darcy into office too, although at the moment it's all we can do to keep Dino "BIAW" Rossi out of the governor's mansion.

    The McCain/Palin campaign's appeals to base fears and hatreds diminish all Americans.

    by phenry on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:10:09 AM PDT

  •  With Rossi and Reichert..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Picot verde, bluebluelady

    could you see Obama or Biden making an appearance in the area?

    I would think coattails would be prevalent.

    Republicans are not a national party anymore. Read My Lips: One Spouse, One House.

    by jalapeno on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:14:46 AM PDT

  •  Who are the other 10 percent in that poll? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Predictor, llamaRCA

    Is there some freaky Libertarian candidate who's siphoning up that other 10 percent who are not going for either Burner or Reichert in that poll? Weird.

    How any far-right-wing candidate can make it that far in the Seattle area (!!!) is beyond me. Hell, I know it's the wealthier "Starbuck's fiscal conservative" district east of Seattle, but please. Even my Rudy Giuliani-esque right-wing ex-husband and his band of right-wing relations who live there were emphatically pro-choice and wouldn't put up with that "preaching pharacist" bullshit.

    (Disclaimer: YES, I used to be married to a right-winger. I was 22 and didn't know myself either personally or politically when I was that young and stupid. Fortunately, I split with him when I was 26, while still had my youth and at least part of my sanity.)

    Do you want to leave your children a legacy of hope or hopelessness? Vote Obama '08 and save our country!

    by boofdah on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:15:31 AM PDT

    •  Bellevue, at least, is very "soccer mom" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      boofdah, Predictor

      I'm not surprised it has a Republican tilt.  It's not the liberalized area that Seattle or Tacoma are.

      The Obama/Biden Inaugural -- the exact moment when the world goes from gray to colorful.

      by alkatt on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:20:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I used to live in Bellevue, so I remember... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Predictor, bluebluelady

        ...that it was fairly affluent and had a conservative lean. However, now that I live in Central FL, Bellevue looks damn "latte-liberal" compared to some of the Stars-and-Bars caricatures I drive through on a daily basis. =8-(

        Do you want to leave your children a legacy of hope or hopelessness? Vote Obama '08 and save our country!

        by boofdah on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:25:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not your father's Bellevue (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SlowNomad, boofdah, Picot verde, Predictor

          In the Legislature at least, the Eastside has gone from all red to all blue in just 12 years. Reichert may survive this one, but his time is coming.

          I went on my honeymoon and lost TU status! A rec would make a nice wedding present...

          by phenry on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:30:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Medina and Renton (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            boofdah, Predictor

            Those are the 2 worries (okay, Mercer Island, too) for Democrats.  The Super-rich and the low info voters.  Renton is changing more than Medina/Mercer Island, though.  It's cheaper to live there and more people are moving in who aren't necessarily in the old Renton stereotype.  Medina/Clyde Hill/Mercer Island, though, are worried about the "Death" Tax more than anything else.  Of course, with the economy going south and more of those mega-mansions to the west of Bellevue Way going into foreclosure...

            That being said, I really, really like Darcy, but I wish she had had more visibility between 2006 and now across the area.  She had great visibility with the NetRoots and the Democrats, but outside of that, I don't think most Eastsiders got that clear a picture of who she is, what she stands for, and why she's so much better than Reichert.  I don't watch a lot of local TV, but it appears to me that whatever contrast ads she's put up are getting drowned in the noisy battle between Gregoire & Rossi.  I'm quite sure there's hope for the 8th and I think Darcy would be great, but I fear this might not be the year, either.  

          •  Comparing the 8th with CA-14 and CA-15 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            boofdah, Predictor


            I've always wondered about this.  Both Silicon Valley and the Eastside used to be reliably Republican--with moderate to liberal, environmentalist and even moderately pro-choice R's in control.  Both areas seem socially liberal but also VERY wealthy because of the tech sector.  Silicon Valley has become a blue bastion, while the Eastside has lagged behind.  Why?  What am I missing?

            •  One word: technolibertarianism (0+ / 0-)

              Microsoft in particular has always been rife with technolibertarians, and I think that's a big reason why it's been reliably Republican here, because they always talk about lowering taxes and reducing government and so on, which are hallmarks of libertarianism.

              Just my hypothesis. I've never lived in Silicon Valley, so I don't know what it's like down there.

    •  Reichert's going stealth this year. (6+ / 0-)

      He doesn't come off like some Oklahoma-style far-right maniac. He's stepped away from the GOP line on some high-profile votes.

      Dave Reichert is dumb as a post, according to more than a few observers, but you can't say he doesn't know which way the wind is blowing.

      The McCain/Palin campaign's appeals to base fears and hatreds diminish all Americans.

      by phenry on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:23:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2% are going elsewhere (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      boofdah, Predictor

      8% are undecided. The crosstabs make that clear.

      What's interesting—and a bit alarming—is that 10% of the Democrats are undecided. Why so many? Only 6% of those who don't give party affiliation are undecided.

      © sardonyx; all rights reserved

      by sardonyx on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:50:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't get undecideds in the Obama race either (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the contrast between candidates in these two races is SO clear, it's hard for me to understand the quandary for people.  I'm not judging, just trying to understand.  If people go with their core values and compare them to the candidates, it should be an easy choice.

        What's the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney? Lipstick.

        by gtnoah on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:55:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If you look at the crosstabs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Daniel K, boofdah, Predictor

      it's 2% 'other' and 8% 'undecided.' That 2% is deeply misinformed, though, because there is no 'other;' thanks to our Top 2 primary, there won't be more than two candidates in any general election race.

      Manufactured political distractions, you are officially on notice.

      by David Jarman on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:57:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Large number of undecideds (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      While the poll numbers are not heartwarming, the large number of undecideds at this point gives one hope.

      The polling also occurred before the local debates (one on Wednesday and one tonight).

      What strikes me the most is that 30-44 year olds, a large group, side with Obama and Reichert.  A lot of these people are potentially young new tech money voters who relate to a young Obama, but aren't comfortable with a woman representative given how male dominated the tech and engineering profession is.

      On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of Ameri

      by Daniel K on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:58:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What's weird about that is... (0+ / 0-)

        Darcy Burner is one of those young new tech money people; she's worked in that industry for 12 years, the last five of which were at Microsoft as a PM. She quit in 2004 so she could attend law school at UW, and then decided to go into politics shortly thereafter. So I think that's the message that she needs to get across to those techies: that she literally is one of them.

  •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

    Look, I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything, but why are we spending so much time and emotion on one particular House race with such a tenuous chance of victory? Darcy Burner may be brilliant, but surely there are other more winnable races on which we could invest more time and more money. If it has to be Washington, how about the governor's race? If it has to be a congressional match-up, how about Cornyn versus Noriega in Texas? Just sayin'.

    The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

    by Korkenzieher on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:17:04 AM PDT

    •  Because we live here and we (7+ / 0-)

      don't want to endure any more of Reichert... That's why.

      I'm working to get Gregoire elected, I'm working for a candidate in my local LD, and I'm working to get Darcy elected.

      We are all "That One". You know, with little pieces of America all in us.

      by the dogs sockpuppet on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:21:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For you, yes (0+ / 0-)

        Oh, I totally get it if you live in that district. I live in Jim Sensenbrenner's bright red district, so I know what it's like to have a tool for a congressman. But considering the nation as a whole, and the dozens of other worthy candidates, it seems to me we spend an inordinate amount of time on this one particular race.

        The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

        by Korkenzieher on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:55:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is more winable than Noriega (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sardonyx, Predictor, bluebluelady

      And frankly... I like a mix.  Some we'll probably win, some that will be nailbiters and some that are longshots.  Gives people options.

      If some don't want to donate to those who they think are longshots, then I understand.  Others object to our supporting people who look sure to win.  Different tastes.

      But I think it's bad form to try to suggest that someone else's time or money is wasted on supporting a candidate of the variety (be it longshot or frontrunner) that you don't find to be very productive.

      If you don't think Burner is worth it, there is a whole slate of others to choose from.

      Jim Martin in Georgia is desperately broke and only a slim few points behind voice-of-evil Saxby Chambliss, if you're looking for a good place to start...

      •  well now that you mention it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Predictor, CarrieNYC

        I think our O2B candidates for the House and Senate are very worth it.

        John McCain - Like W. Only Older.

        Funny McCain Pics archive last updated 8/29

        by InsultComicDog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:29:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Bad form (0+ / 0-)

        I know, and like I said I'm not trying to be a jerk. Sometimes it just feels like this is a zero sum game. Every dollar spent in a House race with an eight point spread in the polls is a dollar that doesn't get spent in a Senate race in Texas, Minnesota, or Georgia. We should help Darcy Burner, but I'd prefer to see more emphasis put on races elsewhere that are higher profile and more winnable. Guess all I can do is send some love to my preferred candidates elsewhere, and hope for the best for Darcy Burner.

        The Bush Family: 0 for 4 in Wisconsin

        by Korkenzieher on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:05:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, (3+ / 0-)

    Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican, Dave Reichert is a Bush Republican.

    Did everyone get the gist of that?  And does everyone know how to substitute your hometown Republican candidate for "Dave Reichert" in the sentence above?


  •  Rachel Maddow is in Seattle today. (4+ / 0-)

    I really wish local press would stop covering Reichert so favorably.  They make him seem like a forgone conclusions and a reasonable choice.

    I've had some success in getting letters to the editor published, but none on Darcy.  Hopefully others are trying as well.

    We are all "That One". You know, with little pieces of America all in us.

    by the dogs sockpuppet on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:19:14 AM PDT

  •  Rematches are always hard (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pager, the dogs sockpuppet

    And it seems Darcy has run out of steam here in the local media.  This is going to be a long shot on election night.

  •  I got this objection from a STRONG Democratic (0+ / 0-)

    supporter. Recently I send a message trying to round up some contributions for the Orange-to-Blue candidates on ActBlue. The following is a response that I received from a very strong Democratic Party supporter and Progressive activist who lives in Darcy Burner's CD.

    As you may recall, I live in WA 08.  Burner lost to Reichert 2 years ago and currently appears headed to the same fate.  She may win, but I think it’s a very unlikely outcome.  Money is better funneled to those with more realistic chances.

    Just fyi, many of my Obama leaning friends are supporting Reichert?  Why:

    • He has a very moderate voting record (a non-partisan review found him among the most moderate in Congress).
    • He’s bucked Bush on the environment, has the NEA (and WEA) endorsement, voted YES on embryonic stem cell (after voting NO), but is generally pro-life (82% rating from NRLC). He served decades as the county Sheriff and has good name recognition.
    • Burner is seen as someone without a resume’ of significance...virtually no community service in her background – before running for the House.  Most D’s refer to her as inexperienced and highly confrontational.  She was a low level manager at Microsoft....then off to the House race.

    Since I am more than 3,000 miles away, it's hard from me to gauge what's really happening "on the ground" in WA-08, but from the looks of this strong objection, Darcy could really stand to step up her game with the Democrats in her district in the last three weeks.

    "In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." --Thomas Jefferson

    by frisco on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:23:37 AM PDT

    •  The WEA endorsement really pissed me off (3+ / 0-)

      That's my union dues going for that asshole.

      What's the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney? Lipstick.

      by gtnoah on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:41:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Experience (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      This is what I hear about Darcy more than anything else.  She left MSFT (she was a Program Manager, not a "low level manager" -- PM's design and spec features and drive the process) and jumped right into politics.  She's well-liked, but outside of the Democratic hard core (the activists who are engaged) there's just not a sense of who she is and what she stands for.  Frankly, yeah, she needs to do more community service.  As my husband was saying the other day, she should run for State office like State Senator or Legislator to establish herself more.  Even King County Council.  I know she could take down that appalling Republican, Jane Hague, the drunk driving serial liar, in a walk.

      I'm in the 1st, not the 8th, but I used to live in the 8th.  That district is going to be the toughest one to crack in the area.  Reichert is someone they're comfortable with and Darcy is still a relative unknown.  

  •  I have to ask... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I know that when an incumbent is under 50%, that's a very good thing.  But given that Darcy ran in 2006, and so already has that name recognition, and is currently underperforming her final 2006 numbers, is that cause for concern?  I mean, I understand that many people don't follow the midterm election stuff, but geez, just from turning on your TV you think you would've seen an ad by Darcy to at least know who she is.

    And yes, I think the pro-choice issue should be raised. SurveyUSA showed that well over 60% of WA-08 considers themselves pro-choice, so Reichert is well out of line with his district in that regard.

    Though Obama only leading by 10 among young people in WA-08 shows how Republican this area is.

  •  Where's the DNCC support? nt (0+ / 0-)

    "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy" Hamlet, 1:5

    by synductive99 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:25:08 AM PDT

  •  Darcy MUST win this one (5+ / 0-)

    I just sent in another $50 to her campaign.

    We MUST have more GOOD Democrats in the Congress.

    Donate what you can folks, she is the real deal.

    01-20-09: THE END OF AN ERROR

    by kimoconnor on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:29:14 AM PDT

  •  The Rethugs are (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Picot verde, bluebluelady

    dumping money, once again, onto the Reichert campaign. From the Seattle Post-Intelligencer:

    The nation’s biggest business lobbies are putting big bucks into a TV campaign to re-elect GOP Rep. Dave Reichert and fend off his formidable Democratic challenger, former Microsoft manager Darcy Burner.

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce goes up Monday with a $156,000 TV buy — anticipate ads that will smear Burner as a tax raiser — on top of a previous $40,000 radio campaign against the Democratic challenger.

    Next week, the National Federation of Independent Business begins a $219,000 television buy to boost Reichert.

    Emphasis mine. As you can see, Reichert is getting enough aid to swamp her with ads down the stretch. It's the same tactic he used in 2006. He'll be in the pocket of big business for years to come.

    I gave some $$ this morning after reading Darcy's email. If you're like me, you're pretty tapped out from giving to the Obama campaign and trust me, I'm really tapped out and yet I squeezed out a little more. We can't forget about down-ticket campaigns.

    I've met Darcy. I've talked with her on the phone. She is upbeat, intelligent, and dedicated. Give to her campaign if you can.

    John McCain: Country Club First!

    by Batbird on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:29:22 AM PDT

  •  A lot of hightech ... (2+ / 0-)

    jobs in this area (WA-08 is where Microsoft is located) are with immigrants. It will probably be a cycle or two before most of them become citizens.

    I not only see Reichert stickers here - most a lot of McCain and Sarah SmeareMachine stickers too.

    The main street in one of the suburbs here has more churches than starbucks ...

  •  Seattle PI Just endorsed Reichert (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    leema, Predictor

    It's a really weak endorsement, essentially "we agree with Darcy on most positions, but the Republicans are so in need of 'moderates' that we should keep Reichert." Yuck.

    She so clearly won the debate a couple of days ago. As mcjoan mentioned, Reichert avoided various questions (at least 3). Second debate is on KCTS (local PBS) tonight.

  •  Seems like the deck is stacked against her (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    And one would hope that the Obama 47 - 43 lead in the 8th would translate for Burner -- I mean, are they really voting Obama and Reichert?  God, that's worse than voting Obama - Rossi! I will never understand some voters.

    What's the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney? Lipstick.

    by gtnoah on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:40:15 AM PDT

  •  Her Ads Are Terrible (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Picot verde

    Burner's ads are really, really bad. I love her, but she doesn't communicate herself well at all.

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      She comes off soft and meek while running in a district that is very conservative and very into the whole military industrial complex ideology. In person she is completely different. When I've seen her speak she was so easy to identify yet strong and with terrific presence, the ads running are not doing her justice.

  •  I made my first ever campaign contribution (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to Darcy, just now. Her district is the one next to mine (Seattle). She is someone to watch, and we desperately need her to get rid of Reichert. You are absolutely right that the local media has kind of given him a pass, mostly because he keeps his more controversial opinions to himself. If more people in his district knew more about him, he would be less popular. Bellevue is Republican-heavy, even in an overall blue part of the country, but they tend to be latte-drinking, lexus-driving, pro-choice country club republicans, not the witch-burning, speaking-in-tongues, young earth creationist variety, and wouldn't hold with bullshit like refusing to dispense contraceptives if they knew more about it.

    The issue of cell-phone-only households is huge. There are a lot of us out here (myself included), and I always wonder how, and if, those are taken into account in polling.

    On the bright side, my girlfriend's father, who owns a jewelry store in Bellevue, has been keeping an informal poll of how his customers (country club Republicans, all) intend to vote, and it's 3 to 1 Obama. Here's hoping President Obama has long coattails.

  •  we've got to turn this tide! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    </ war>


    "It is just stuff"

    Darcy Burner put forth a plan to get us out of Iraq!

    Darcy Burner is one of us and we need to get her to DC. (here I am preaching to a choir...)

    I just sent her 20 dollars. (and because I'm a sucker and the Act Blue page has so many great candidates, I sent some cash to all of them.)

  •  OT Connecticut SC overturns Gay marriage ban!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    They're dropping like flies in blue states.

    Sarah Palin is just another Karl Rove in lipstick and stilettos.

    by uc booker on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 08:58:57 AM PDT

  •  Reichert couldn't find his ass with toilet paper (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    phenry, joustchr

    My uncle worked at the Seattle Kenworth plan down by Boeing.  They knew for years that their co-worker was a mass murderer. Reichert took forever to find Green River Killer and how many more women died because of it?  Oh well, they were only prostitutes...

    Sarah Palin is just another Karl Rove in lipstick and stilettos.

    by uc booker on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:02:26 AM PDT

    •  WA-08...... (0+ / 0-)

      ...isn't exactly a hotbed of intellectual activity, either, but perhaps I'm being too judgmental.  Most of knowledge of South King County comes from old "Almost Live" bits.  I do know that Reichert had very little to do with the actual capture of GRK, other than focusing his investigation on the wrong guy for a number of years.  Somebody should talk Bainbridge Island Police Chief Matt Haney (who had was convinced of Ridgway's guilt and had enough sense to get DNA evidence from him back in 1987)into running against Reichert in 2010.

    •  Burner NEEDS to after him on this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uc booker

      It would not take much to dig up individuals who have direct knowledge of Reichert's incompetence in identifying, capturing and interrogating the Green River Killer.  Put a couple of these Kenworth workers or Reichert's fellow officers on screen, then a family member of one of the women killed after Reichert gave up on Ridgeway.  The man is NOT competent and Burner is fighting with one arm behind her back not to use this failure against him.

      I say this as someone who has donated to and volunteered for Burner.  I had lunch with her (and other supporters) a couple of months ago and I'm kicking myself for not bringing this up.

  •  I'd love to see... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gtnoah, uc booker

    Obama and/or Biden fly out and do a rally for Gregorie and Burner....longshot, but still would love to see it...

    The thing with politicians is I wouldn't have suspicions if I saw their worst positions and their ugly underneath...

    by mstarr77 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 09:35:23 AM PDT

  •  New Lake Research Poll has gap at 3% (0+ / 0-)

    Just received this:

    Recent polling conducted on behalf of America’s Voice among voters in WA-08 shows that Darcy Burner is strongly competitive with Dave Reichert and connects better with voters on several critical dimensions.

    Burner has closed the gap in this race with Reichert, now trailing by just 3%--48% for Reichert (46% solid, 2% lean), 45% for Burner (42% solid, 3% lean).

    Burner is seen as the candidate who stands up for the middle class, not Reichert. Burner leads on this measure by 12 points—45% to 33%, with 17% undecided.

    Burner is seen as the candidate with the right approach to improving the economy—35% for Burner, 32% for Reichert, with 27% unsure.

    Burner leads Reichert as the candidate who most shares their values 42% to 40%, with 12% undecided.

    On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of Ameri

    by Daniel K on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:05:52 AM PDT

  •  Darcy needs to highlight Reichert (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    voting in synch with Bush. She did this in '06 and the Seattle Times crapped on new math by saying something to the effect that a 10% difference was a stronger sign of independence than a 90% correlation. I haven't seen Reichert voting record discussed and he seems to get a free pass on his independence claims based on the occasional vote against his party.

  •  The DCCC just posted this ad (0+ / 0-)

    Hopefully that'll take some skin off of him.  

  •  Burner leaving Dem votes on the table (0+ / 0-)

    84% of WA Dems will vote for Obama

    76% of WA Dems will vote for Darcy Burner

    Too many Dems this year not supporting the ticket.

    George Bush dug us into a deep hole. . . John McCain was carrying the shovel! ~Barack Obama

    by mrobinson on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:09:32 AM PDT

  •  How to pick up Libertarians (0+ / 0-)

    Emphasize his anti-choice, anti-abortion positions. Republicans in the NW try to hide this position.

    George Bush dug us into a deep hole. . . John McCain was carrying the shovel! ~Barack Obama

    by mrobinson on Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 10:20:55 AM PDT

  •  In the neighborhood (0+ / 0-)

    we live about 3 blocks away from this congressional district and spent many hours volunteering in Darcy's last campaign.  Just made a $125 donation and will be volunteering Sunday.

    A republican friend who is a police officer in part of this district AND lives in the district AND is on a first name basis with Reichart told me the other day he's sure Dave will be out of a job in January.  Woo hoo - GO DARCY

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